Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

We might just possibly be back to correcting on the fly with intra-day lows and then a rebound before the close. That makes it difficult to move at the end of the day. Today we have the Dow down 85 points currently while the NYSE is only down 5 points.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I got 19 mins to make my decision and I'm still not sure if I should make an ift today or on Monday. hm...
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll gladly sell anyone my May IFTs that I won't be needing. I'm staying in to win.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I'll gladly sell anyone my May IFTs that I won't be needing. I'm staying in to win.
Click to expand...

A Surge is impossible without some consolidation

If we see a consolidation we should be thrilled !!

I'm still kind of a pansy a$$ - but I'm getting better Birch :cheesy:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think its early to jump back in stock. I'm staying in G.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

well I guess today's another good day for the market. S is now showing up 0.05% and C is at -0.05%.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

DCguy said:
I think its early to jump back in stock.
Click to expand...

The time to buy the bottom has passed. Some of us were singin' in the rain around the 1300-1330 area right when the doom and gloomers least expected it.

The F 'n G are like pots of slow boiling water. Get out before you get burned, equities are where the party is at in this great discounting mechanism.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

A while back I had mentioned the NYA was probably going to blow through 9500 very quickly and that buying participation remains longer term bullish - today the NYA closed out at 9603 showing better gains than the Dow.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
A while back I had mentioned the NYA was probably going to blow through 9500 very quickly and that buying participation remains longer term bullish - today the NYA closed out at 9603 showing better gains than the Dow.
Click to expand...

Birch - a few times I wondered if my bladder was going to lose control and that Voo Doo mentality almost got me again. Most of us are so conditioned to bailing after a decent gain.

Ignoring all the news (good or bad) and simply looking at the S&P 500 (which is our main stay) the past 2 months has demonstated undeniable solid gains. This week is consistent with that and today was an excellent day.

THERE IS NOTHING TO INDICATE A CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN - THE GAINS CONTINUE AND THE STRENGTH PREVAILS

Still 100% C Fund - thanks my friend
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

According to Dow Theory, a bull market ends and a bear market begins at the point where both Averages, Industrials and Transports, record their last highs together. The last time both Averages recorded highs together was back on July 19, 2007. On that day the Dow closed at 1400.41 and the Transports closed at 5446.49. However, the Dow continued higher, closing at a record high of 14,164.53 on October 9, 2007 - but July 19, 2007 remained the high for the Transports. Therefore, according to Dow Theory, July 19, 2007 marks the end of the bull market and the beginning of the current bear market. On that basis the primary bear market is now ten months old. It would be unusual for the bear market to end after only ten months, but in this business anything can happen. Further more, during the 1966 to 1980 period, we know a bear market can be made up of a number of small bull and bear market cycles - all taking place within the structure of one extended secular bear market. However, with the latest Dow Theory buy signal I firmly believe this latest correction took place within the structure of an extended secular bull market.

As of now I am less than $40K off my peak during October'07 - I dove to the lows of greater than $300K. It's all in being right and sitting tight. I wouldn't be a bit surprised that by the end of this year I'm $500K above my previous peak. The current reversal formation could easily lead to an alternative "V" wave up to SPX 1600-1700. This is the 1998 scenario.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

Be right and sit tight. I believe the 2002-07 bull market was one phase of a larger secular uptrend. Once the current correction cycle ends, a new phase of the secular uptrend should unfold and carry the major indexes to new all-time highs. You saw the confirmation on a graph of the rally through the dominant downtrend line from the October high. We will see continued strength in the DJ Transportation index - we hit 5400 yesterday. Such a rally would complete a base and represent the first higher high since October. I think it's time to start spreading the superlative bull manure around. Cover me in clover and the sweet smell of rampaging bull manure. I'm going to start a buying panic when I move to purcgase my next 55 stock positions - I'll be selfishley buying all the way up since I've already bought all the way down. Bull markets often start with low volume because there are few believers - more volume will come later when opinions switch. Today was a good example where the NYAD line continues to move higher with enough strength to pull apart the distance between the 19 day and 39 day EMAs, the higher and higher price is going to go. The greater the compression the more explosive the reaction will eventually be. We had nice breadth thrusts off the Jan low and they are still intact with a bottoms above bottoms structer on everything. The greater danger to risk is being out, not being in.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The anticipation is that the financials are set to rebound with earnings in the third and fourth quarters. At the end of 2006, the S&P financials was the largest sector in the S&P 500, representing 22% of market cap. Today, it is still the largest sector although the weighting is down to 17%. Quite simply, the panic that has gripped the mortgage-financing market is irrational and has no basis in investment reality - I was quoting 350Z.

The battle of all battles is about to take place. We have corrected enough now for this pause. It's time to see some sort of real resumption to the upside. There is going to be ample liquidity hitting the markets anyday now and with many of my chiclett friends hiding out on the lily pad the time is right for another buying spike and breadth thrust. Expect it when you least expect it.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

They were discussing inflation and the commodity markets tonight on Kudlow - very interesting. Is the secular trend of 1942-63 happening all over again. An inflationary bull market marked by a period of global infrastructure development. The bull market from the 1982 lows to the highs in 2000 was similar to the secular uptrend from the mid 1940s to the mid 1960s in terms of duration (20 years, more or less) and performance (on the order of 1100%). The earlier period saw the DJIA rally from below 100 to near 1100; the 1982-2000 bull market rallied from below 1000 to 11,700. However, the fundamental underpinnings of the moves were different. The 1940s to 1960s was an inflationary bull market, while the bull market of the 1980s and 1990s was disinflationary. The new secular bull market in stocks from the 2002 lows is taking place in the context of a commodity bull market and a maturing, multi-decade downtrend in yields. It would seem, therefore, that this new uptrend has the potential to be an inflationary bull, making it more similar to the 1940s to 1960s.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

According to my figures, the G and F Funds are currently running at 0.2% above their 50-day moving averages. But the C, S and I Funds are currently at 2.8%, 3.9% and 3.8% above their 50-day averages respectively.:cool:

Your bulls are running both home and abroad.:D

Too bad we don't have a crystal ball for the future. It may be a bumpy ride the next little while but that's what seatbelts are for.

Thanks for your informative posts,
Lady
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

To get the long-term outlook, one must look beyond the purely technical approach. That's where fundamental analysis comes in. The longer term outlook is what fundamental analysis is made for. The short term is for technical analysis. Valuation is the key here, for it provides the backdrop for the bull market to continue in the longer term. According to IBES, stocks are nearly 50% undervalued compared to the 10 year Treasury yield. This is the most undervalued that stocks have been in the last 35 years. Keeping in mind that the stock market looks ahead 6-9 months, the revelations of the past year have already long since been discounted by the market. Be in to win. Snort. Another week is now history and the bear case is looking worse for it. Not that the market can't go down from here, but if it does, it won't be the impulsive wave for which so many have been waiting and waiting for. When we get compressional moments they usually give a multi-month trading pattern to work with once any indecision is finally resolved. Stay in May and play.
 
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