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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
luv2read
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 18
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I don't find anything about this anywhere.
Scrambow has a point. I'm FERS not CSRS. Does this still apply?
I don't find anything about this anywhere.
Last edited:
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"To make money in the stock market it is important to follow the trends. Let's start with the long term view of the S&P 500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems to be a good indicator of the cyclical bull and bear markets. In addition, the 78 week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acts as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market."
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/2008/0508.html
"To make money in the stock market it is important to follow the trends. Let's start with the long term view of the S&P 500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems to be a good indicator of the cyclical bull and bear markets. In addition, the 78 week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acts as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market."
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/2008/0508.html
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
scrambow,
There are several options available to take funds out of your TSP account. There are no other options when considering the defined benefits retirement plan - you have to take what they provide - there are no cash balance programs only the annuity.
scrambow,
There are several options available to take funds out of your TSP account. There are no other options when considering the defined benefits retirement plan - you have to take what they provide - there are no cash balance programs only the annuity.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"To put the rally in perspective, during the last bear market the S&P 500 notched 3 notable rallies before finally reaching a bottom. Assuming the October 9, 2007 S&P 500 clos2e of 1565.15 proves a top and / or we are in a bear market (which has not been confirmed on a closing basis) today's 11% jump is exceptionally weak by comparison."
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10196.htm
"To put the rally in perspective, during the last bear market the S&P 500 notched 3 notable rallies before finally reaching a bottom. Assuming the October 9, 2007 S&P 500 clos2e of 1565.15 proves a top and / or we are in a bear market (which has not been confirmed on a closing basis) today's 11% jump is exceptionally weak by comparison."
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10196.htm
luv2read
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 18
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
I'm still a bit fuzzy on this, sorry. One more time. I'm FERS. It's my understanding that I can take a TSP annuity, or not. None of the information I have says anything about a "separate" annuity from TSP. Can you clarify? Is that the 1% automatic contribution? If so, that IS part of TSP, at least that's what TSP OZ says. TIA.
Birch,
I'm still a bit fuzzy on this, sorry. One more time. I'm FERS. It's my understanding that I can take a TSP annuity, or not. None of the information I have says anything about a "separate" annuity from TSP. Can you clarify? Is that the 1% automatic contribution? If so, that IS part of TSP, at least that's what TSP OZ says. TIA.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
luv2read,
You can find most of the information you seek regarding your personal situation on the retirement thread - that information would be better suited to your questions and would offer details better than I could. I need to review some of the information myself.
luv2read,
You can find most of the information you seek regarding your personal situation on the retirement thread - that information would be better suited to your questions and would offer details better than I could. I need to review some of the information myself.
Silverbird
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 27
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Luv, start here with the FERS tome:toung: page. Plenty of arcane stuff to read:
http://www.opm.gov/retire/html/library/fers.asp
Luv, start here with the FERS tome:toung: page. Plenty of arcane stuff to read:
http://www.opm.gov/retire/html/library/fers.asp
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"What Bear Market? What Recession?" by Howard R. Gold. "There's little evidence that we're in either a bear market or a recession, defined, respectively, as a 20% drop in the major stock market averages and two cosecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth. Far from just a technical issue, whether we are or not will set the direction of the market in the months ahead and determine whether the recent rally from the March lows continues strongly or peters out."
http://www.marketwatch.com
"What Bear Market? What Recession?" by Howard R. Gold. "There's little evidence that we're in either a bear market or a recession, defined, respectively, as a 20% drop in the major stock market averages and two cosecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth. Far from just a technical issue, whether we are or not will set the direction of the market in the months ahead and determine whether the recent rally from the March lows continues strongly or peters out."
http://www.marketwatch.com
Buster
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 109
Re: Birchtree's account talk
AH HA!!!..where have we heard this definition before? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?
Anyways..Oil will be off it's highs next week, expect a short rally..but the rest of the month is a downer..Staying in F
AH HA!!!..where have we heard this definition before? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?
Anyways..Oil will be off it's highs next week, expect a short rally..but the rest of the month is a downer..Staying in F
Buster
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 109
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I agree..But I think until oil is firmly on it's way down, along with all the other commodities..Gold is already headed south... the Big buck players with their cards held pretty close to their chests..will then play in..End of May..says the Magic 8 Ball.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From Mary Ann Bartels of Merrill Lynch.
"S&P Transport's record highs bode well for the market. In recent days the S&P 500 Transportation Index broke out to all-time highs from a two year base. We believe that this bodes well for the DJ Transportation index and will bolster the recent Dow Theory buy signal. Moreover, while near term technical indicators are overbought, most of our intermediate indicators have not deteriorated all that much, despite the S&P 500's rally from the March low. This suggests that most stocks are in position to maintain their current bullish bias through most, if not all, of the current quarter."
From Mary Ann Bartels of Merrill Lynch.
"S&P Transport's record highs bode well for the market. In recent days the S&P 500 Transportation Index broke out to all-time highs from a two year base. We believe that this bodes well for the DJ Transportation index and will bolster the recent Dow Theory buy signal. Moreover, while near term technical indicators are overbought, most of our intermediate indicators have not deteriorated all that much, despite the S&P 500's rally from the March low. This suggests that most stocks are in position to maintain their current bullish bias through most, if not all, of the current quarter."
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Of the 80 million houses in the U.S., about 55 million have mortgages. Of those, four million are behind on payments. Foreclosure proceedings were begun on about 1.5 million homes last year, up more than 50% from 2006. This year will be worse. The Treasury, according toi presentations its officials have made recently, predicts house prices could fall another 10% to 15% beforew touching bottom. Moody's Economy.com estimates that one in roughly 12 American families with mortgages - four million in all - already owe more than the current value of their homes. They are said to be "underwater". The firm predicts that by early 2009 nearly one in four, or 12 million, homeowners will be unerwater. Most will continue to pay mortgages on time. Many won't, and are at risk of losing their homes." And like I should care, right? They won't be in the stock market. Pay the mortgage and sit tight until value returns in a few years.
http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us
"Of the 80 million houses in the U.S., about 55 million have mortgages. Of those, four million are behind on payments. Foreclosure proceedings were begun on about 1.5 million homes last year, up more than 50% from 2006. This year will be worse. The Treasury, according toi presentations its officials have made recently, predicts house prices could fall another 10% to 15% beforew touching bottom. Moody's Economy.com estimates that one in roughly 12 American families with mortgages - four million in all - already owe more than the current value of their homes. They are said to be "underwater". The firm predicts that by early 2009 nearly one in four, or 12 million, homeowners will be unerwater. Most will continue to pay mortgages on time. Many won't, and are at risk of losing their homes." And like I should care, right? They won't be in the stock market. Pay the mortgage and sit tight until value returns in a few years.
http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us
luv2read
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 18
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"U.S. productivity rose at a solid pace in the first quarter, suggesting companies are adjusting quickly to the economic slowdown by shedding workers and cutting back on the number of hours worked. Labor costs, meanwhile, grew at their slowest annual pace in four years, easing inflation worries. That is good news for the Federal Reserve, since without surging labor costs, a 1970s-style wage-price spiral cannot take hold.
Unit labor costs - a key gauge of inflationary pressures - rose a mild 2.2% in the first quarter, and were up just 0.2% from a year ago. That was the smallest annual rise since 2004, and underscored worker's difficulty in securing higher wages during a slowdown. Labor is the biggest single expense in producing goods and services. Gains in productivity are crucial to allowing the economy to expand without rising inflation or declining profits. Though slightly below the average of recent years, recent productivity increases are impressive given the slowdown. (Mid-cycle slowdown like 1995). Usually, productivity growth drops at the start of economic slowdowns, reflecting companies' initial reluctance to shed workers. Manufacturing-sector productivity jumped 4.1%, almost double the average for the economy overall."
http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us
"U.S. productivity rose at a solid pace in the first quarter, suggesting companies are adjusting quickly to the economic slowdown by shedding workers and cutting back on the number of hours worked. Labor costs, meanwhile, grew at their slowest annual pace in four years, easing inflation worries. That is good news for the Federal Reserve, since without surging labor costs, a 1970s-style wage-price spiral cannot take hold.
Unit labor costs - a key gauge of inflationary pressures - rose a mild 2.2% in the first quarter, and were up just 0.2% from a year ago. That was the smallest annual rise since 2004, and underscored worker's difficulty in securing higher wages during a slowdown. Labor is the biggest single expense in producing goods and services. Gains in productivity are crucial to allowing the economy to expand without rising inflation or declining profits. Though slightly below the average of recent years, recent productivity increases are impressive given the slowdown. (Mid-cycle slowdown like 1995). Usually, productivity growth drops at the start of economic slowdowns, reflecting companies' initial reluctance to shed workers. Manufacturing-sector productivity jumped 4.1%, almost double the average for the economy overall."
http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The composite NYSE breadth MCSUM has moved to higher highs and at +282 has continued to build on the summation failure breakout - we will now most likely challenge the October highs. This is the first time weekly RSI has been above 70 in a few years. You all know that if you wait until the dust settles the value will be gone. I did a little nibbling today on about six stocks: ABB, BBT, CRI, CX, CNP, CTX.
The composite NYSE breadth MCSUM has moved to higher highs and at +282 has continued to build on the summation failure breakout - we will now most likely challenge the October highs. This is the first time weekly RSI has been above 70 in a few years. You all know that if you wait until the dust settles the value will be gone. I did a little nibbling today on about six stocks: ABB, BBT, CRI, CX, CNP, CTX.
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