Birchtree's Account Talk

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

caymanbrac12, welcome to the Message Board. We all here respected your Father, a really savvy guy. He was right when he recommended this site to you. We are all trying to maximize our TSP accounts, some or buy and hold, some are swing traders, some trade almost every day trying to meet the same end, MORE $$$. Stick around and discuss your allocations, if you're anything like your Dad you'll do great.
Norman

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

...just a buy and hold C fund guy just trying to accumulate as many shares as possible.

Love him, Hate him, you'll Never forget him.

The truth is, this method is going to beat 90% or more of us swingers/traders in the long run. When I say long run, I mean retirement 5, 10, 20 or 30 years down the road. At least, that's what John Bogle always says.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I may have also said this before but it also bears repeating. When the ratio adjusted NYAD line went to new all time highs the wave 3 up changed to Primart degree instead of intermediate degree. Primary degree would give us upside price objectives that woould make some shake their heads in amazement. Every time we get a decline the TRIN moves higher and every time we get a rally the TRIN moves higher as well - this is the perfect signature of strong advances where we are continously correcting any excesses on the fly - we don't need to move lower, all we need to do is make poeple anxious.

When the ratio adjusted A/D line of the NYSE breached its' 1959 overhead resistance line I knew we were going to do the watusi. And there is plenty of air between today's value and that same resistance line. Stocks remain reasonably priced, measured against corporate profit gains the SPX index is about 17 times member companies earnings over the past 12 months, only slightly above the average of about 16 in recent decades.

There will be another blind side when this run ends. You must be aware and understand the fact that we are going to see frightening retracements the higher up we go. How about another 1500 point down the well kind of drop. Bull markets do not like company anf the higher we go the stiffer the pull backs will be to make sure that not everyone is participating as we continue to move higher and higher. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The DJIA just completed a 10% run in the space of six weeks. What will the next 12 weeks bring - another simple 10% puts us very intimate with 15,600. The low-rate, low-inflation environment was one of the main pillars of the bull markets that Americans enjoyed for most of the 1950s and 1060s. Hopes for another long running bull market depend in large part on a perpetuation of that environment. The largest 25 companies in the S&P 500 stock index were recently trading at their lowest price relative to earnings in 20 years. In comparison to many of the world wide indices the Dow appears to be pretty cheap; it's number 65 in the list of top performing markets and I suspect that many world wide traders will slowly start moving our way - some good fuel.

I thought I had a good chance to pull up about $40K yesterday, but sadly I did fall short - but not too short. I'm waiting on the DJTA to now close once again at an all time high to provide a reconfirmation of the Dow Theory Primary Trend - how long must I wait? Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Everyone continues to search for the scurrilous driver of the restored Datsun B210. Since I have apparently developed the uncanny ability, using my red bull flag to attract his attention, I've consulted with Ferdinand regarding this situation. This is what we've discovered. The gentleman in question (I use that word with chagrin) is on penitent sabbatical doing extraordinary penance while searching for absolution. He will return when Ramadan ends. Until then please allow the 12 step healing process to be completed - he'll return more accurate than before.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"If this unprecedented chart is to be believed then we are about to witness the mother of all short squeezes in the broad market. The little guy (yellow bars) has suddenly thrown in the towel and gone short and is about to be turned into mincemeat by the Commercials."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8523.htm

 

[SkiUtah]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thank Birch....looks like a pretty good ride is setting up....
when

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"If this unprecedented chart is to be believed then we are about to witness the mother of all short squeezes in the broad market. The little guy (yellow bars) has suddenly thrown in the towel and gone short and is about to be turned into mincemeat by the Commercials."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8523.htm

Excellent read, Birchtree. I like this quote from them:

Remember the market doesn't need a great economy to go up, just unlimited liquidity - and the Fed has resoundingly demonstrated that they stand ready to provide it, no matter what the consequences.

That's what people keep forgetting. I don't know who convinced some of us that the stock market should make sense, but since when has that been the truth???

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Holy Bull manure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 93%, or 6,801.28 points, since Oct. 9, 2002, when it hit its lowest point since the stock-market bubble burst in early 2000. Can we expect more. Do we deserve more? Emerging markets are the tech stocks of this decade. Last week we learned that an inflation gauge watched closely by the Fed fell to just 1.8% for the year through August, well within the Fed's comfort zone. Hopes have spread that low inflation and slowing economic growth will let the Fed cut interest rates again when policy makers meet at the end of this month, funneling more money into markets. I noticed where my FBN (Furniture Brands) added 3.54 yesterday because a Chinese furnishings manufacturer Samson Holdings has reported a large stake in the company. They may push for a takeover - and that's fine with me. They can have anything they want that I own - just pay the premium.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How about a little more bull before I head to work. Author of the Stock Trader's Almanac, Jeffrey Hirsch, believes that this October could be the best of the year. He points out that October has been the best month since 1998. He thinks the market is going higher and has adjusted his forecast to Dow 16,000 in the next 3-6 months. The recovery from the August correction was remarkable, occurring in 46 calendar days where the average for this bull market has been 146 calendar days. The gain for the first nine months was the best since 1999, and the Dow is on pace for the best full year gain since 2003. Oh, I'm so full of superlative manure. Snort.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How about a little more bull before I head to work. Author of the Stock Trader's Almanac, Jeffrey Hirsch, believes that this October could be the best of the year. He points out that October has been the best month since 1998. He thinks the market is going higher and has adjusted his forecast to Dow 16,000 in the next 3-6 months. The recovery from the August correction was remarkable, occurring in 46 calendar days where the average for this bull market has been 146 calendar days. The gain for the first nine months was the best since 1999, and the Dow is on pace for the best full year gain since 2003. Oh, I'm so full of superlative manure. Snort.

Ok, now ya got me smiling.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The current composite NYSE weekly A/D MCSUM configuration greatly reduces the probability of any major price damage over the next several weeks and the probability of further price gains over the next couple of months is favorable for the bullish case. (You must be kidding, right?) Before a serious price decline begins, the weekly A/D MCSUM is already declining. We had a breach back in August but the odds of remaining long and profitable for the three months following a breach are historically favorable. 15,600 here we come - let's ride the Ducati 1098 to success. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well Ferdinand I just ran head long into another nonbeliever of our oceanic account. Shall we tell this nonbeliever that yesterday with a Dow down 40 points we actually made $2,000. How can that be dell will ask - small cap positions my friends. Today, however, we may not be as lucky - par for the course. Honestly, Ferdinand, this young man must have wood chips on both shoulders instead of bars. But hey, that's what makes the world go round. Another nemesis another day - I noticed one of them has returned from his penitent sabbatical and seems to have received his absolution and ready for a new start with the Nissan.

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Your not boring.


Just saying.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mr. Bob Brinker of Marketimer says the 60-day put/call index registered a new historic high reading of 1.078 on September 18, 2007. At the end of September, this index remained in extremely high territory with a reading of 1.077. This index serves as a barometer of the very high level of embedded pessimism that is present within much of the investment community. Use your own interpretation on this data.

 

[jellobrains]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree, can I ask you a question? (ok I will) if you had ~3k in a self directed IRA, where would you put it?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'd put it on the unappreciated, unloved, boring, but worldly GE. You can't go wrong with this in an IRA - dividends will be increased on a yearly basis. It was golden at $24.00 but still a good buy at $42.00. They will get to $80 and then do a split - I own a nice block.

 

[jellobrains]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"U.S. ISM manufacturing survey: Fodder for Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, the positive economic influence from the weak dollar and stronger overseas growth has not been enough to completely offset the drag from domestic softness. Thus, it appears that more Fed rate cuts will be needed to reverse the 18 month old economic slowdown."

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"It would then appear that there is a pretty decent chance that the markets will correct several hundred points before soaring much higher. However taking the intermediate time frame the recent developments are rather bullish and it appears that the markets are set to soar to much higher heights in the not too distant future." Did you really expect to hear something different - you all know how tendentious I am.

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ti/2007/1002.html