Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Wait for the squeeze that comes tomorrow. Hurry, I'm late, I'm late for a very important date. I'm still dumping spill down the rabbit hole. Today I bought: TWIN, WLL, INT, BZH (again at $9.78), FDP, OLN, RKT, NHY, CTX, DHI, MCS, CX, LNN, LBY, all before the last 20 minute rally. They tried to kill the home builders today and I took opportunity to step in front of them as my personal sacrifice to get golden prices. Simply cleaning up my buy list. I did check to see how much water my tugboat account (TSP) has been taking on since the C fund peaked - it's $38.8K and I find that tolerable when taken into context of the overall balance. It's a good thing though that I'm NAUI certified. Still have more spill to get rid of tomorrow if we get a dip - other wise I just might start buying the portfolio big gainers. Snort.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Shorts just got squeeeeezeeedddddd

Oh, yeah, babe!! This is definitely an explosion waiting to happen.

A few months ago, I mentioned on the board about a guy at work who got out of the market after the Feb-Mar drop. He said he'd wait until the market was definitely moving up. Turns out he went all in last week just prior to the big drops! He got out after the drop and is now waiting again!!! Definitely a sign that the market will keep moving up without him.

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

. It's a good thing though that I'm NAUI certified.


Me too, I learned that as long as there is air in the tank." Do not panic" That is what will kill you...:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Help, help me I'm fallin in love with all my wonderful wall flowers. Went in today and used up some more spill and bought: ELN, BMY, TRN, ELX, FOE, LG. Has anyone ever considered the "New Horizons" indicator? Baltimore's T.Rowe Price regularly compares the price to forecast earnings of the S&P 500 with the P/E of shares in its New Horizon fund, the granddaddy of small stock funds. When the P/Es are similar, that's often a sign that small stocks are a bargain. When the New Horizons fund's P/E is 50% or more above the S&P 500's P/E, big caps may be a better deal. As of March, the most recent data shows the premium was 53%. The P/E data are included in the New Horizons fund's reports to shareholders, which are available at trowprice.com. Want a more current comparison? If you dig into the stock data at wsjmarkets.com, you will see that the Russel 2000 index of small stocks is at 25 times forecast earnings, versus 16 for the S&P 500. The implicationis that after eight years of outperformance, small caps aren't cheap. Now where is that Wheels character when I need a rebutal. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I fell into a burning ring of fire, went down, down, as the flames went higher that ring of fire. Nah, that is not my oceanic account only a yeast infection. Today may have been the climactic capitulation. I went in and bought: TRN, ANN, SGP, AA, ALB. Will more than likely be buying more next week. I've got a long way to head down before I decide to back off. This is buying time again - must remain creative and think long term. Down 281 on the Dow really stinks but it is a cleanser. Now is the time to apply superlative manure and make things green again. Better days are ahead. We are still only down 1,000 points which is less than 10%. A Dow of 15,600 still remains my goal for the end of the year. $2M will come pdq. If I told you folks how many times I've done this over the years you would think me a glutton for punishment - but the eventual reward makes the pain worth while. Snort.

 

[wht00ss]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birchy that turd Dougy Kass finally did some good recently for me - it's about time. I'm also spending money on stocks like a drunken sailor buying everything in sight even that piece of crap LEND and countrywide. Everything is getting crushed so I'm taking my boy's Peter Lynch approach and really opening up the purse strings. I'm buy tech big time and alot of goldman sachs and as I said there are some great deals out there even stocks with p/e of 100 like FTEK, even GGBM and BRLC. Hell I even bought VG. Either I'm going to look like a hero or a complete zero.


white

 

[dell]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, White, et al: Has anyone looked at LUM? I am NOT invested in LUM, but I am giving it strong consideration. They pay a good dividend and it appears there has been recent insider buying and no selling.

I would appreciate the thoughts from an investor who is more than savvy than I am.

Dell

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

dell,

Luminent Mortgage Capital is definitely geared to the conbtrarian investor in this smelly climate. As an REIT they say they have ample liquidity to manage their business and are probably being thrown out with the bath water. There are 17,825,966 shares short with a ratio of 16.0. The short interest as a percent of float is 39.3%. They recently paid their dividend of $0.32 and have a listed dividend yield of 20.22% with a P/E ratio of 6.39. They are now selling at $6.33 down .95 and wow. If it starts to come off the bottom and the shorts are forced to cover it will rock. If you got some avaliable spill I say go for it, why not. Just don't get in too deep - you can always add on the way up. Take a spin and see if you win. BWDIK - Snort.

 

[dell]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dennis: Thanks for the info. I think I will pick up a few shares even though it may prove closer to speculating rather than investing.

Dell

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Finally got a bingo - but only fools rush in. Did I do any buying today, you bet I did. Went in on a lopsided A/D line before noon and bought: AE, B, DUK, RRI, KMGB, KRO, NBR, AZZ, RKT, SXI, EXM, JAH, AYI, DY, CNX, AES, TWIN. Boy I feel like a cat on a hot tin roof, not out of fear though, but rather trying not to get too giddy. I'm positioned now to make some serious $K if we turn around before the year ends. So far the good news on the oceanic is that we have been dented to the tune of $156K - that might seem like a lot but it's totally tolerable. The plan is to gain at least $400K before the year ends - 15,600 here we come. OK, make that $600K I deserve that much for my gallant show of courage. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Fabijo finally moved out of my progress lane - thanks buddy. Went into the market today and bought: ATW and BBG. I'm trying to decide if I want to take the lazy way forward and just ride on the train for the rest of the year or perhaps do my usual run in front of the train back to Dow 15,000. I've bought a great deal of stock in the last four weeks so perhaps I'll be satisfied to simply kick back and see if the manure spreading will make anything grow. I got my last C fund at $16.02 how great is that? The problem for new TSP owners is that the higher up we go in price the fewer shares accumulated. You can spend shares eventually but percentages are not spendable. Let'er ride for now and by all means hang on tight. The Fed may just do a quiet cut in the next few weeks - like the surprise in 1998. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

WV-girl,

To answer your question, I believe I own 236 individual stocks. I also own the holy grail which makes my pain threshold tolerable. Yes, you can take losses to counteract your gains to reduce tax liabilities. I currently have a dog I may be selling (POP) later to do exactly that - but I will wait to see if it tries to make a comeback. That particular dog doesn't want to hunt anymore - a real shame, but one can't always be a winner.

In the first quarter companies in the S&P 500 stock index spent nearly $118 billion to repurchase their shares, more than in any previous quarter. Some long term buyers are positive. Companies also announced $157.4 billion of buyback plans during the second quarter, up nearly 58% from a year earlier. Who says there is a liquidity crisis - not if the company has a clean balance sheet.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What goes up must come down, the spinning wheel must go 'round. Today was a climactic retest and the worst day since 2/27. Looking back over July I made 180 individual purchases and I'm comfortable with my positions. I always buy too early and now each one of those buys will cause a certain degree of pain - but I'm prepared to tolerate that pain. The select selling I did was rather prescient or I'd be hurting even more. My suspicion is that the oceanic will rebound now even faster than it went down - resting on the train for now, waiting for the nonsense to clear. I'm sitting on two positions that I'm willing to sacrifice if I want fresh cash to do more buying - but for right now I'm finished - prudence is often the better part of valor. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm staying 100% C fund in the tugboat - no reason to change my position at this time - perhaps a few more $16.00 buys and then on to higher prices. It's a long way to December and we will continue to have this volatility - and it does work to the upside also.

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Please-no upside yet. I want some more shares at a lower price.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm enjoying that VIX at 29 from a contrarian standpoint. I didn't want to do it, I didn't want to do it, but the Mrs said go ahead I know you really want to do it. She said I'll have your back so get to the bottom of the well. So at a Dow down 200 points I went in with my 12 gauge and bought: HPC, CF, MLI, TRA, GDI, AAP, CMC, ALB, CVG, FDP, CBI, CR, DRC, DW, DY, AGU, LII, OKE, PCR. This market keeps pushing and I have no choice but to buy the wall flowers at this point, knowing full well that eventually they will all become beauty queens. So I'm back on the come back trail. Thinking back to the other corrections we've had since 2004 - most have been based on fear and nonsense - stepping up my friends and buying myself into happiness. Here comes 1670 on the SPX. International earnings of U.S. companies grew 16.4% in the first quarter compared with a year ago, while domestic earnings rose just 2.7%. The anticipation for the second quarter is that international earnings will grow 15%.

 

[atcbullet]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You forgot to snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Smart investors don't make their decisions based on headline news, otherwise they'd be poorer for it".

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2007/0813.html

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for the link. The man, like me, just wants the 'chicken-little jalopy' out of the way. Shove that wreck off the twisting, hairpin mountain road I say. The 21st Century Unlimited is barreling through!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I had a $33K come back from the past two days, but that has gone with the wind after today. I'm just going to be patient and bump my butt along the bottom until the situation clears. I will depend mostly on my dividends to do DCAing while I'm at the bottom of the well - I may be forced to take some more profits and that'll be a sacrifice I wish not to make - but if we drop a few hundred more points that's what I must do. The 50% Fibonacci line is at a Dow of 12,983 - but I don't think we'll see that level. Exports looked good today and will help revise the second quarter GDP up into the 4% range. The tugboat is looking for the next C fund price purchase to be around $16.00 again. I'm holding 100% C fund and do not plan to cut and run - that's against my religion, especially when my strategy is correct. Snort. All I need is more bull manure and less bulltinky.