Birchtree's Account Talk

[wavecoder]

My oceanic account did just what I desired for the week: -$7K, +$8K, -$29K, +$89K, +$53K for a pleasant gain of +$114K. Now all I need are two more weeks of similar gains. Remember, emotions can cause you to make moves that won't help your bottom line.

Yep I can speak from experience. Thats why i let robots make my decisions for me instead

I still do a little bit of TA but more so for fun.

 

[pmaloney]

Great advise as always! :smile:

 

[Birchtree]

Ed Yardeni says ride the secular bull market four more years. Once liberal regs are relaxed companies will start capex and acquisitions. Then the market is a moon shot as we key the foundation for overexpansion. I certainly won't miss that ride.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Your doing Great! Just saw you on tracker. Best wishes!!

 

[Birchtree]

I'm reminded that more equity money and fewer equities means rising prices - doesn't that make sense? The primary uptrend in stocks should remain intact for as far as the eye can see.

 

[Birchtree]

I have 9 dividends rolling in today - so market direction is inconsequential at this point. Buybacks are likely to remain strong in 2015. Now imagine the melt-up potential of the stock market if the great rotation by retail investors from bonds in to stocks continue to build momentum. When the S&P hits 2100 that puts this bull market among the very best of the last 50 years.

 

[Birchtree]

The lack of obvious euphoria may actually extend the bull market's life. I think that what started in March of 2009 was the beginning of the next secular bull market that we are in the middle of right now. There is the risk for some of getting left behind once more. I believe the Stoxx Europe 600 index is now at a new high. I'll keep buying into IEV.

 

[Birchtree]

On Wednesday, the Baltic Dry Index, the global benchmark for leasing costs, or freight rates, sank to its all-time low. Now that's a signal I can buy. The Baltic Dry Index, is at its lowest level in roughly three decades. It was at 11793 in May 20, 2008 and is now at 509. Give me some shippers, please.

 

[Birchtree]

"Fresh signs that the Federal Reserve will be patient in lifting U.S. short-term interest rates surprised investors Wednesday, stalling the dollar's headlong advance and reversing a February selloff in government bond prices. The Fed wants to move away from zero interest rates, but they just can't at the moment. The Fed is the only major central bank considering raising rates this year. The Fed won't start raising rates until very late this year."

 

[Birchtree]

I expect that the Dow still has roughly ten to fifteen % gains ahead before cycle peak in mid 2015. Market valuation - not market level - is what historically has mattered to future returns. I'm betting on another double-digit year for stocks in 2015. Remember, throughout recorded history, such breakouts following a lengthy trading range have always been followed by a multi-year secular bull market - primary trend should remain up for years. The rally from the 1982 lows to the 1999 highs encompassed some 10,700 points. We've got a lot more road ahead to travel yet. Many portfolio managers are now in the disbelief phase of this bull market - just what I like.

 

[Birchtree]

Before I go this evening I'd like to reiterate that this market continues to follow the 1995 breakout trajectory - investors are pouring more money into stock mutual funds in the U.S. than they have in 14 years. We are in for one very nice ride upward in my opinion. There I said it.

 

[polarbear]

It's looking that way, like you said. See my post to uscfanhawaii about retirement and such. I'm back. Always enjoy your posts, wisdom.

 

[polarbear]

Writing to my wife's cousin in Poland, I compared Putin to Woland in the Master and Margarita (Bulgakov), he replied, no, I think Behemoth. Maybe so, btw, it's relevant to your post -- if someone can hang the bell on this cat, it can only improve everything going forward. See my post to uscfanhawaii. I've got a job to do, squeezing the red color out of penny, and I will do it. Go Gators!

 

[pmaloney]

And you said it very well! :smile:

 

[Birchtree]

Stocks rose almost every time the Fed increased interest rates - I say bring on the pain. This market is discounting the future. There is no real end in sight for the S&P 500 rally - no overhead resistance. So I suspect stock prices will rise sharply in the next 12 months. The risk of a bull market top remains remote. Now all I need to see is an improving outlook for future coal prices. History shows that virtually every time an investment style has been declared dead, the market takes a turn that ultimately resurrects it - so I will hold my coal positions.

 

[Birchtree]

My oceanic account the last four days was anemic: +$20K, -$7, -$7K, +$28K for a grand gain of +$34K. I suspect next week we'll continue with our multi-decade Supercycle bull market and I'll sweep up at least +$100K. The market will easily make new continued highs in the next two or three months, possibly significant new highs. It's also bullish that the VIX is below 16 once again. I think the trend is relentless with the possibility of a parabolic blow off mania somewhere into the future. Remember: Greed is good. I'm expecting Yellen to keep rates low for a very, very, long time. The Fed may not see its 2% inflation objective achieved until after the end of 2016. All the major yearly Kress cycles are up for this year. I plan to have tons of fun.

 

[Birchtree]

And the bull rolls on. "Investors pulled $11 billion from money-market funds in the week ended Feb. 18 and put $13.5 billion into bond and stock funds, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch." "Volatility and trading volumes have collapsed this month as U.S. stocks have marched to fresh records, a respite that few investors foresaw and few expect to continue. For now, the return to placid markets is being welcomed by buy and hold investors who have been rewarded in recent years for sitting tight."

 

[GUCHI]

BT I agree with your buy n hold being rewarded. I'm Living proof.... I checked my account balance and was happily surprised by the dollar increase in just the 1st quarter with just gains on my account since I no longer contribute to my account since retiring. I have also been sitting on my I fund for a long time with 1500 shares waiting for it to make a move. Looks like it is starting to float up whoop whoop.

 

[Guest2]

When your Portfolio reaches $100 million, I plan on coming back and asking you for Small Loan. I'm good for it ! Honest !

 

[Birchtree]

GE's stock breakout suggests Dow's rally is real. When GE's stock is rising, the broader stock market usually does the same. Is Japan really buying 50% stocks - will Mario do the same? Right now you have to buy high and then buy higher.