Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Whenever I'm challenged with a 330 point consolidation I just have to grin because the 7 dividend reinvestments due yesterday will increase my income stream for the long haul - today I have 10 dividends due. So now I'm chasing my sweet wall flowers buying: SDRL, SBGL, MS, AA,BTE, FM, CNX, EWJ, CNHI, GLF. "Defining a bull market as a rise of at least 20% following a drop of a least 20%, there have been 26, including this one, in the past 85 years. Today's the fourth longest of those and, if it survives until May 2, it will rise to No. 3. A more relevant measure though, may be the appreciation in the market. Excluding dividends, the current bull run has notched a gain of 206%, nearly double the historical average of 106% and approaching three times the median of 77%." "Investors have reason to expect a lot from stocks. On average, the S&P 500 has returned 18% a year since 2009, including dividends and from the start of 2012 the index's total return has averaged 21% a year. That is the S&P 500's best three year period since the tech-bubble era of 1997 through 1999.

 

[Birchtree]

I suspect that European and Japanese QE is pushing the dollar - but don't worry. The stock market has performed twice as well during dollar bull markets than during dollar bear markets. If history is any guide rising rates should also mean rising stocks. In fact those years of consistently increasing rates are some of the best in the history of the benchmark S&P 500 index. By developing a portfolio like the Birchtree 300 consisting of dividend growth stocks and reinvesting the dividends right back into the same stocks until you need the income, you will set yourself up for a more secure financial future. I expect the next 20% move in the market to be up. Just try to remember that corrections are panic attacks that aren't validated by the fundamentals.

 

[Birchtree]

Several of my wall flowers were down graded today so I bought more CLF and BTU.

 

[GUCHI]

BT I was wondering how you feel and deal with the I fund showing a 1.24% gain but when it's all said and done it ends up with an .80% gain. It was strong the whole day since the open so a late rally should not come into play as far as the fv. Just curious what your thoughts are on this action? I feel like someone has robbed me at gunpoint;swear

 

[Birchtree]

The I fund fair value play is designed to keep the traders at bay - I don't let it bother me. What goes away will return. This week was another one of those dog paddle disciplines - just treading water. Here is how the week went: -$3K, -$118K, +$31K, +$101K, -$59K for a minor give back of -$48K. March is my largest dividend buying month so I just keep pouring money down the rabbit hole buying more shares. I suspect that eventually foreign capital flows could drive our market significantly higher. I'm going to keep adding to my EWJ and IEV positions betting with the euro.

 

[Birchtree]

This market has made me somewhat rich the last six years. No guts, no glory. I think we have 15 more years to let this bull run. Are we going to get another 10% correction at some point - well maybe. The longest period without at least a 10% pullback was during the 1990-1997 run, at 82 months. My oils are still selling off and I have 7 dividends today picking some of that lose change up.

 

[wavecoder]

Why not 20 years? screw the moon, this ship is going to mars and beyond :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

I have 17 dividends working hard for me today, so periscope down is welcome.

 

[Birchtree]

I figure for my tiny two cents is that the Fed for 2015 is none and done. They're all just talk now.

 

[JTH]

I figure for my tiny two cents is that the Fed for 2015 is none and done. They're all just talk now.

You've been quiet lately, hope all is well, keep feeding the bulls

 

[Mcqlives]

Ditto...keep those dividends rolling over so we all get another 20%!!!!!

 

[Birchtree]

Well Jimbo Crackers my oceanic account did better this week than last week or the week before that: +$29K, +15K, +$100K, -$63K, +$94K for a gain +$175K- this however still leaves me in the hole for the month so far at $18K. I'll clean that up next week. There are dividends paying all days with 22 due on the 31st. I've been reasonably quiet the last several months just riding the crest without getting overly tendentious. Sometimes one just runs out of things to say.

 

[Birchtree]

It's time to keep a closer track of interest rates - there will be a top out there someday. "A flat or an inverted yield curve - where longer-term rates are below those of short-term ones - has typically portended poor economic times and even recession. That last happened June 2007, shortly before the financial crisis and ensuing downturn. The time before that: December 2000, as the economy was also descending into recession." It may take another 15 years for the next inverted yield curve to happen - at least that's my time horizon.

 

[Birchtree]

I believe it's time to buy more FCX. "Gains were further bolstered by the Chinese yuan, which saw its best week against the dollar in more than seven years after China's central bank drive the currency higher in a bid to squeeze out speculators. China is the world's top copper consumer, and a strong yuan makes it easier for Chinese purchasers to buy the metal."

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Birchtree! Where are you??? I need that awesome pep talk that you always share! I am missing your wonderful positive voice ringing out to the masses.... The bulls are charging and there is no shortage of manure... I can smell it now!!! We'll hit 24,000 before the years up!!!!!

Hope you are doing well. :smile: DBAnnie

 

[Birchtree]

The month of March was not a winner for my oceanic account - but then again you can't be a winner all the time - here is the scoop: -$145K, -$48K, +$175K, -$78K, +$81K for a loss of -$15K. But I did have some nice dividend hits. In April 2014 I had a 0 gain - expect to do much better this time around.

 

[Birchtree]

It was a light week but it was a positive for my oceanic account: +$99K, -$18K, -$19K, +$46K for a gain of +$108K. So we start the month of April with a gain.

 

[OBXTrader]

Good show Birch for a trading week that resembled a temper tantrum. Because I held a pretty balanced portfolio, I too was marginally in the green. Better than languishing in stable value or cash one might say.

It was a light week but it was a positive for my oceanic account: +$99K, -$18K, -$19K, +$46K for a gain of +$108K. So we start the month of April with a gain.

 

[exnavyew]

Offered simply FYI:

[h=1]Buy When There's Blood In The Streets[/h]
Buy When There's Blood In The Streets

 

[wavecoder]

Offered simply FYI:

Buy When There's Blood In The Streets


Buy When There's Blood In The Streets

I've noticed a big # of very successful investors were the contrarian types. Problem with that strategy is it's super hard to follow. When everyone else is panicking it's a natural human instinct to follow the herd. It takes practice to de-train your natural wiring hehe.