Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

From a recent WSJ article. "The question for investors is when bond yield and stock prices might start to decouple. Since 1963, stocks and bonds have tended to move in opposite directions whenever the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen above 5%, according to data compiled by LPLO Financial in Boston. When the 10-year yield is below 5%, stocks and yields tend to move in the same direction." I suspect QE2 will keep rates low until at least the end of June.

 

[WorkFE]

BT,
Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but I believe the middle east action is killing us in the I fund. Everyday the dollar seems to retreat in the afternoon but never enough.
Do to 0 IFT's I am stuck there instead of the alternative.
Brightside: up is up

 

[Birchtree]

"Currently, the value of the indicator is 69.87%, and this indicator is at its highest level in 10 years of data. Values less than 50% are associated with market bottoms. Values greater than 58% are associated with market tops."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/19973/investor-sentiment-very-brutal

I made enough money today to fill the flower pot - if the same happens tomorrow I will most likely buy many wall flowers that Ferdinand likes to smell. I'll tell everyone at the end of the week what my gain was today. So right now I'm buying higher and higher - not waiting for any type of consolidation although I thought we would get one today.

 

[Birchtree]

For all those chasing the S fund be aware that the heavy hand of fate will hammer you back to the tune of 2% real soon - don't cut and run because it will bounce back again like it did in January only this time not so high. That's just the way the world works and you have to experience some pain to get further gains. I'll get hurt also - but then again I've got my flower pot full of dollars.

 

[david.alan.williams]

Very true and good advise. I'm chasing one of those 11% months like Sept 2010. :nuts:

 

[amoeba]

For all those chasing the S fund be aware that the heavy hand of fate will hammer you back to the tune of 2% real soon - don't cut and run because it will bounce back again like it did in January only this time not so high. That's just the way the world works and you have to experience some pain to get further gains. I'll get hurt also - but then again I've got my flower pot full of dollars.

You mean, people like you, who don't have anything in the S-fund? and instead put money in I-fund, which had half the return over the last 3 months? Heck - S-fund outperformed I by 1% in the last 5 biz days.

C'mon birch.....you got those IFT's.....don't be in denial - you WANT S-fund; you want it BAAAAAAAAADDDDDDDDDD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Press the button.

 

[Afishegg]

For all those chasing the S fund be aware that the heavy hand of fate will hammer you back to the tune of 2% real soon - don't cut and run because it will bounce back again like it did in January only this time not so high. That's just the way the world works and you have to experience some pain to get further gains. I'll get hurt also - but then again I've got my flower pot full of dollars.

ooooh, run...Run for your lives...hehe. Birch just wants everyone to bail, cuz he don't like having to look up at all of us up here, the sun makes him squint.:cheesy:

Besides, birch is the one who always says, "I like a little pain, just shakes out the trees and leaves me standin all alone to make up the gains when they return" "then when I'm standin on my lillypad watchun everyone else sink, in the oceanic netherworld etc etc etc"...I'M THE KING OF THE ...world?!:blink::nuts:

 

[FAB1]

BT knows the S wouldnt be alone in such a tumble downward, he also knows he wont bail out either and if/when a pullback comes he will be in good company.

His best hope, (for I know he desires to ascend the tracker) is that S funders quail near the bottom use an IFT and get stranded & that and the ones who still hold will fall behind if there is a huge jump in the I fund that catapultes him ahead of the pack.

There is a lot of empty space up high in the G column now, the time is ripe.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Birch is my hero Old iron guts - just one question - what in the heck are all the references to sticky pants supposed to mean (this is a genuine question)?

 

[Afishegg]

Birch is my hero Old iron guts - just one question - what in the heck are all the references to sticky pants supposed to mean (this is a genuine question)?

Well I think what it means is that when your sitting in your chair and the market is crashin, your gonna need sticky pants to keep you in your chair while your hurtling toward the financial ground....hehehe:laugh:

 

[Cactus]

just one question - what in the heck are all the references to sticky pants supposed to mean (this is a genuine question)?

I think they are refering to pants that help you stay in the saddle of that bucking bronco that is the stock market. The metaphore is used to remind us to stay the course of whatever strategy we are persuing and not to be overcome by emotion. Remember, emotions are not your friend. :blink:

 

[FAB1]

Birch is my hero Old iron guts - just one question - what in the heck are all the references to sticky pants supposed to mean (this is a genuine question)?

What fishegg said..lol!

Be wary of his counsel, in matters of the tracker he is NOT your friend! :suspicious:

 

[Birchtree]

It's a good day to do some flower power shopping and yes I have my sticky pants on. This morning I bought: TWX, TNB, MAS, CE, ODC, NX, MDP, KEX. I have more shopping to do but I have to conserve my energy for perhaps even better pricing - so I'll be back said Arnold.

 

[nasa1974]

Afishegg and Cactus, good explainations. Either will fit. Looks like another bumpy ride today. Good luck.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm still spending some flower power with the current weakness: FBN, EBF, UBS, ELX, BYD, FAF, HVT, GGC, FBP, HRS. I've only spent enough that now the flower pot is only half empty. I'll probably be back for a few more wall flowers - money burns a hole in my sticky pants.

 

[Birchtree]

The risks of owning stocks are real, and they are rising - not falling - as stock prices keep going up. That doesn't mean you should reduce your exposure to stocks. It does mean that the more they go up the more the danger - but all hoofhearted are willing to accept this risk. I want my wall flowers so I'll buy'em and pay any consequences later. So here are a few more of them I bought: CSL, LG, AHD, IPI, FNF, HEI, AIT, FIG, FOE. I'm saving a few dollars of flower power for tomorrow - no need to rush a good thing in a bull market that will persist for years.

 

[amoeba]

Birch:

Today's pause is nothing - and entirely traceable to a minor adjustment in the energy bigs. Everything else is low volume buy-and-holding or related noise.

Buy Buy Buy. As much risk as you can stomach. That means S-fund. Ditch some of that lame I-fund.

1,350 by end of month or earlier. Press the button. Do it now.

 

[Birchtree]

amoeba,

I'm excited that you didn't evanesce - I enjoy your visits. I don't plan to be in the S fund this year unless a sacrifice presents itself - like a major devaluation and my greed takes charge. I'll be in the market buying more wall flowers tomorrow and most of them are in the small cap category. Good to see you in finally up to your nostrils.

 

[jpcavin]

BT

I'm confused. Isn't the S fund considered small cap?

 

[Birchtree]

Yes, the S fund is considered small and mid-cap. My oceanic account is loaded with them so I'm staying with the large caps in my TSP - trying not to be greedy. My wife is also only large cap in her defined contribution plan and my daughter is also only large cap in her Roth 401K - this sector will provide the outperformance going forward for the next 7 years if you can believe that.