Birchtree's Account Talk

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Well Birchmeister

It's Friday and a great way to end the week.

I get a free movie from Redbox -- and am heading out soon to chill and enjoy.


Have a great weekend BIG Brother !!!
 
The SPX has surged almost 100% since the March 2009 lows, the biggest advance for a comparable period since 1936. Birinyi is looking for this bull market to rack up 162-210% gains from the March 2009 lows. We've got plenty of room left to run in this mega trend secular bull market. This was week #10 upside out of the last 11 weeks. My oceanic looked like this: +32K, +17K, -32K, +16K, +28K for a weekly gain of $64K. I'm now only $255K short of my $2M goal from the March lows. I've got buying power for Monday so I'll be buying some happiness - it would be nice to be able to buy all week - I'm so greedy. And it's only 1995. Now that we are above the January resistance level of 1300, it is a good sign the rally will continue. But first we go through a set back on Monday to shake a few off the bull. Sorry S funders it will only hurt for a few minutes.
 
Well I got rolled over by the 100% S fund train leaving me at #113 on the tracker. That's OK because the small caps in my oceanic account did give me some adequate buying power for Monday's stock selections. I'm presuming we'll see a small consolidation next week which will give me better pricing - best this happens on Monday before I spend all the money. I've now made 364 individual flower power purchases since 7/31/10 so I'm moving right along to further building my base income. When we get back to SPX of 1565 I suspect my long market value will be close to $6M. You can do a lot with that kind of flexibility.
 
"Corrections are perfectly normal, necessary, and unavoidable within the strongest bull markets. All prices flow and ebb, advancing two steps forward before retreating one step back. These ebbings are critical because they rebalance sentiment, bleeding away excess greed and complacency before it grows to upleg ending or even bull ending extremes. Corrections keep bull markets healthy."

http://www.marketoracle.co.un/Article26241.html

Adam is looking for a major correction and he may be right. But since we just completed 10 positive Dow weeks out of 11 weeks this reminds me of 1995 still. Then we were looking for the 9th consecutive weekly gain for the first time since 1995 and we missed it by only a few points per say. I still believe we are in a 1995 type move and any consolidations going forwad will be mild - with small caps taking the most heat. The Dow rallied nearly 60% in 1995 alone. The large caps, and the way they are currently being valued makes them more attractive compared to the small and mid-cap names that have had a great run over the past two years. The expectations for the large caps is relatively low. I'm still looking for a parabolic type acceleration blow off top to SPX 1400 but we may see the S fund give back $0.50 before that completes.
 
Birchtree said:
"Corrections are perfectly normal, necessary, and unavoidable within the strongest bull markets. All prices flow and ebb, advancing two steps forward before retreating one step back. These ebbings are critical because they rebalance sentiment, bleeding away excess greed and complacency before it grows to upleg ending or even bull ending extremes. Corrections keep bull markets healthy."

http://www.marketoracle.co.un/Article26241.html

Adam is looking for a major correction and he may be right. But since we just completed 10 positive Dow weeks out of 11 weeks this reminds me of 1995 still. Then we were looking for the 9th consecutive weekly gain for the first time since 1995 and we missed it by only a few points per say. I still believe we are in a 1995 type move and any consolidations going forwad will be mild - with small caps taking the most heat. The Dow rallied nearly 60% in 1995 alone. The large caps, and the way they are currently being valued makes them more attractive compared to the small and mid-cap names that have had a great run over the past two years. The expectations for the large caps is relatively low. I'm still looking for a parabolic type acceleration blow off top to SPX 1400 but we may see the S fund give back $0.50 before that completes.
Click to expand...

Is that a bad link? uk instead of un?
 
Birchtree said:
Well I got rolled over by the 100% S fund train leaving me at #113 on the tracker. That's OK because the small caps in my oceanic account did give me some adequate buying power for Monday's stock selections. I'm presuming we'll see a small consolidation next week which will give me better pricing - best this happens on Monday before I spend all the money. I've now made 364 individual flower power purchases since 7/31/10 so I'm moving right along to further building my base income. When we get back to SPX of 1565 I suspect my long market value will be close to $6M. You can do a lot with that kind of flexibility.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm on that train...but, I'm getting really nervous.

haha...... JUST KIDDING! ......# 3 here I come!!! (er maybe not)
 
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I'm buying some flower power happiness on early weakness: KRO, CDI, BMS, SVU, WEN, APL, MTG, DOW, GT. I'm sure I'll be spending more money as the Grand Trunk rolls on. Right now I'm actually building more buying power for tomorrow - providing the R2K holds.
 
You still tracking WLT as a good coal stock, or do you have other favorites? They were down a little early this year but jumped today, apparently on earnings previews for today's after-the-close disclosure. I'm a past stockholder who regrets selling bigtime ...
 
I own a bucket load of coal but Walter Energy is not one of them. I own stuff like: ACI, MEE, ANR, JRCC, PXP, PCX, PXD, CNX, and a cross dresser like CLF. I noticed the other day that the NYAD (Daily) Cumulative is at a new all time high - the Grand Trunk rolls on. I think I may also own some Williams Coal - I'll have to check. I also own a nice chunk of BTU.
 
hotwings,

Waiting for a pullback in this type of liquidity market is like waiting for Godot. All bull markets consolidate from time to time - you just can't plan for it very well. Just know that the blindside is out there and often they are simply good eating.
 
i have been waiting because of this week in the seasonality chart. i do not invest in regular stocks only the tsp. i have been playing with 200+k in the tsp and have about 7-9 years left before retire. i want to get back into the CSI fund one or all and i think weeks end is when i will do it because the next three months IAW to monthly seasonality are green. i just dont want to fall into the trap of buying higher then when i got out and went into G fund. how do you see TSP funds as investing in this "bull" market "waiting for a consolidation? currently 70G15C15I
 
You might see some market weakness in the middle of March when some cycles will be nesting their lows - otherwise keep an eye on the VIX. I'm using it as a contrarian play against complacency and anything below the level of 14.66 will be a signal for a short term top. I'd prefer a parabolic run to SPX 1400 before we see a consolidation but it's wide open to any consolidation. I'm playing the market like it's 1995 all over again when there wasn't even a minor consolidation more than 3%. So just pick your poison. Whatever comes more than likely won't be very deep and hardly worth the effort to get out of the way - there are some advantages to getting hit by the train. You don't want to bet against the trend in place once you get even a drop below overbought conditions because the run back up could be swift. Snort.
 
BT,

My IRAs are fully invested... I was fully invested in TSP until the end of Dec where I took 25% off the table expecting a pullback.... I did transfer 5% back into S on 1 Feb and was waiting for a pullback for the other 20% which will have used up my 2 IFTs. Perhaps if I keep the other 20% out the market will keep going up :}
 
I just completed my wall flower buying for today: HXL, AZZ, BHI, TEX, AKS, BPO. I still have 29 purchases left on my list providing Mindylou doesn't add more. The small caps are not helping me on the tracker but they sure are pumping up my oceanic account for flower power buying tomorrow. The VIX is actually up +0.17 at 15.86 but will probably end unchanged by the close or perhaps lower if we get some strong dip buying - I'm doing my best to push the bull higher.
 
Do I have even the slightest tinge of 'guilt' for being in S Fund?

NO - NONE at all.

Listen Birch, I can't help it if people are losing their homes and all their money is drying up and everything .... and I'm sure many are facing very difficult moments....

But -- I have my own life Birch and my greatest obligation is striving to do the best I can with what I have.

Sooo I could leave all my money in guaranteed 'safety' and make like 0.01% interest.

...or I could put half in S Fund and make 100 times more than that in a day or two.

You've got to have money to make money Birch -- then the more you make the more you have -- the more you make ..... and this 'horrible vicious never ending cycle' has you soooo excessively overflowing that you can't keep up. :o:nuts:

But I've learning to live with it and just let it flow.
 
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