Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Stick with it long enough and it eventually becomes second nature.

 

[jpcavin]

I hope so.

 

[FAB1]

I wish I understood what all the smart people are saying.

Read the article at the link and it will help.

The writer also said: The market simply is rotating its dollars to whatever is working, or perceived to be working. It tells you the bull market is still on, but we could sure use some selling to get things more to a buy point so numerous new plays can be taken on.

So, it sounds to me that he feels we need a break, some selling to latch on to some new territory. The other part about the 70RSI reading he is saying that is not exactly normal, that people should (normally) be selling but this bull market is still chuging ahead

If you read the whole article the author is saying the market needs a pullback which I agree on, it really isnt an overly bullish argument he is making but rather he would like to see a consolidation which might set the market in "fresh" direction.

At least that is how I am reading it.

 

[jpcavin]

I understood your explanation and the article made sense once I figured out what RSI was. So I gather that one should be watchful if RSI is above 70 or under 30 - signs to bull or sell?
I came across a really good example/explanation that shows how to figure out RSI but is there a place where I can get RSI readings without having to do all the leg work? :cheesy:
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:relative_strength_in

 

[Happy_Trails]

I understood your explanation and the article made sense once I figured out what RSI was. So I gather that one should be watchful if RSI is above 70 or under 30 - signs to bull or sell?
I came across a really good example/explanation that shows how to figure out RSI but is there a place where I can get RSI readings without having to do all the leg work? :cheesy:
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:relative_strength_in

The free charts over at stockcharts.com have RSI listed at the top of the default chart. For example, put in symbol VTI (Vanguard total market ETF) and have stockcharts.com load the free chart for you. RSI should be displayed across the top of the chart.

 

[jpcavin]

The free charts over at stockcharts.com have RSI listed at the top of the default chart. For example, put in symbol VTI (Vanguard total market ETF) and have stockcharts.com load the free chart for you. RSI should be displayed across the top of the chart.

That's totally cool. Thanks HT!

 

[Happy_Trails]

That's totally cool. Thanks HT!

You bet - another symbol you might want to check is VEU (Vanguard total international ETF). RSI is just below 50 for VEU.

 

[jpcavin]

BT
Which direction do you think the I Fund is headed?

 

[Birchtree]

The I fund is going up because it's a proxy for investing in the emerging markets via their individual large company exports. At least that's why I own a 60% position - I'm not overly concerned about the dollar's impact on the I fund.

 

[jpcavin]

I'm just trying to project how much better or worse off I would be if I had went 50/50 I/S vice 100I

 

[FAB1]

I'm not overly concerned about the dollar's impact on the I fund.

Nevertheless the impact remains.

whether or no you are concerned, probably a good idea that you have some C fund to cushion the $ influenced I fund uncertainity!

 

[Birchtree]

Currently with the R2K at 817.09 +4.39 means that any gains above this level is building me buying power for Monday. I jus hope the VIX at 15.79 - 0.30 doesn't drop too fast. Everybody is enthralled with the potential performance of the S fund - not me. There is a new pivot point in town.

 

[jpcavin]

Currently with the R2K at 817.09 +4.39 means that any gains above this level is building me buying power for Monday. I jus hope the VIX at 15.79 - 0.30 doesn't drop too fast. Everybody is enthralled with the potential performance of the S fund - not me. There is a new pivot point in town.

What does R2K stand for. I am sure it's not Return to Kogarah

 

[Birchtree]

The small cap index - Russell 2000.

 

[Birchtree]

We are slowly reaching toward the point of recognition and we'll see more than 452 users online. It's just a matter of time as the word of a really sweet bull gets out. Ferdinand just loves to smell the flowers and I have to buy them.

 

[jpcavin]

Wish I had some S funds.

 

[Birchtree]

Whoa there Ferdinand slow down or many S funders are going to get kilt come Monday. And that is fine with me because I'm building buying power and I may get to buy cheaper. The real point is stay long and strong - but watch the VIX level at 14.66. That's when I may start DCAing small percentages to safety - but I don't wish to leave much on the table.

 

[jpcavin]

Whoa there Ferdinand slow down or many S funders are going to get kilt come Monday. And that is fine with me because I'm building buying power and I may get to buy cheaper. The real point is stay long and strong - but watch the VIX level at 14.66. That's when I may start DCAing small percentages to safety - but I don't wish to leave much on the table.

I meant I wish I had bought some S funds earlier. Where can I get VIX level? 14.66 is still relatively low, isn't it? What is "DCA"?

 

[Birchtree]

DCA is dollar cost averaging - moving or buying small amounts on a disciplined basis. When the VIX drops below the 14.66 level that may indicate trouble ahead - this is only based on historical precedence. A break below 15.00 will put the VIX back at a level not seen since July 2007. This may or may not be prolematic for a consolidation. These levels correlate to April 2010 when we got a 16% correction - but the past may not be indicative of the future. Many MB members have an intense fear of taphophobia - not me however. Snort.

 

[jpcavin]

DCA is dollar cost averaging - moving or buying small amounts on a disciplined basis. When the VIX drops below the 14.66 level that may indicate trouble ahead - this is only based on historical precedence. A break below 15.00 will put the VIX back at a level not seen since July 2007. This may or may not be prolematic for a consolidation. These levels correlate to April 2010 when we got a 16% correction - but the past may not be indicative of the future. Many MB members have an intense fear of taphophobia - not me however. Snort.

I knew that acronym, just didn't click how it was being used in the sentence. Well, I am neither a taphophobiac nor a bathophobiac. I'll just brush the dirt off and keep on moving