Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

http://www.scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ Worth a read.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm currently residing at #116 with 3.37% gain on the tracker. A burst of good fortune would propel me into the top 100 ranking. I'm still trying to catch JTH and as long as he remains stationary and comfortable I'll make progress. Once into the 60 range there is very little tracker traffic up ahead - should be gravy for the taking. By the way JTH is at #59. October will be the tricky month to maneuver around but could offer potential for out sized gains if played correctly.

"Being reminded of the similarities to the fears and conditions in 1992 has me even considering the possibility that before year-end we could even return to buy and hold being a viable strategy again....and the stock market continued in what would become the longest and strongest bull market in history."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22590.html

I think we may have bottomed in the July/August period and may see some pressure in October from the four year cycle - but I believe it may be mild. Staying long and strong.

 

[Birchtree]

Holy mother of Allah - I could be looking at $215K of new buying power. I'll put that to work immediately especially in the energy sector - I don't mind buying on the upside.

NYAD (Daily) Cumulative 100809.00 - new all time highs

TICK (Daily) Cumulative 462718.00 - new all time highs

Something exciting is getting ready to happen - be in to win.

 

[KevinD]

"The only way I know of making a stock go up is to buy it." Roswell P. Flower p 237 Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

 

[Birchtree]

"The stock market VIX indicator to gauge and profit from the market's mood."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22621.html

 

[Birchtree]

After looking over my new Merrill Edge account I find that rather than having $215K buying power I actually have $783K buying power - now I can really hurt myself with those dollars available. So I'll be careful buying a few energy stocks today to begin the process - keep the money moving. As they say "Money Never Sleeps".

 

[WorkFE]

The Bull is all over the VIX this morning. Can it hold'em down?

 

[Birchtree]

Slowly going into the West and buying early and perhaps often with my new account platform - bought BP and MEE to start out. Currently the VIX is at 21.24 down .75 - if we go below 21 into the 20 level we could see a a very nice close. I'm betting better than Dow +181.

 

[Birchtree]

I have thirteen more purchases I'd like to make today but will hold back until the Dow is up over 100 points. The NYSE seems to be stuck - but it's still early in the day. My oceanic account tells me I'm ahead by $50K and I hope it holds - that adds to buying power. So let's rally up so I can come in and buy my favorites. I like to buy on up moves so I can lock in previous purchase gains. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

We've got a slippery slope setting up for bonds - what a sucker play being built.

"The longer-term picture is subject to several interpretations. The most probable one at this time is that the SPX has been moving in an extended sideways intermediate trend since it made its high at 1220. With the 4-year cycle probably still ahead of us, this trend could continue with another retracement into about mid-October when the current short-term uptrend reverses. After this retracement - especially if it does not bring much weakness and the 1010 level holds - we could start another up leg in the bull market which began March 2009."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article 22642.html

 

[dannyboy]

I have thirteen more purchases I'd like to make today but will hold back until the Dow is up over 100 points. The NYSE seems to be stuck - but it's still early in the day. My oceanic account tells me I'm ahead by $50K and I hope it holds - that adds to buying power. So let's rally up so I can come in and buy my favorites. I like to buy on up moves so I can lock in previous purchase gains. Snort.

***
:notrust: You really only got 2 moves per month!
I get burnt(?), when I place a lot of emphasis on the almighty crash that's gonna come, but never materializes. They say "run fast and stick your head in the sand until it blows over"? If a major drop starts to materialize then I'll think it over. Until then? You really only got 2 moves per month! Never blow your IFT's before the 15th (1/2 the month).

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...spc,^TNX&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

 

[Birchtree]

Irish,

I have two accounts - the oceanic and the tugboat (TSP). I'm actually doing a little buying to build my sacrificial lamb chop account which will protect the oceanic account from unwanted margin calls. We all fear the drop - I'm prepared for it. The BP and MEE I bought this morning are in the lamb chop account. With the Dow getting stronger again I may jump the gun and buy a few precious wall flowers before the close. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Stepping up to buy a little happiness before the close: KEX, RDC, RES. Maybe I'll get to finish my list tomorrow - not in a big hurry. I'm slowly getting comfortable with my new online platform. We've got about 750 more Dow points to get back to the April highs - and I want to buy all the way up.

 

[Birchtree]

"Tilson says the current pessimism about stocks is a bullish sign. The stock market has jerked people around so much, they don't want any part of it. But that's music to my ears. To be a successful investor, you have to buy things that aren't popular. Investors, looking backwards, will once again realize they missed opportunities."

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/09/13/gurus-still-keen-on-blue-chips/

 

[Handballer]

Pity those many investers among the Tracker top 20 100% in the F and G funds. Nope they used better judgement than the rest of us. At year end they will be way ahead of the rest of us.

"Tilson says the current pessimism about stocks is a bullish sign. The stock market has jerked people around so much, they don't want any part of it. But that's music to my ears. To be a successful investor, you have to buy things that aren't popular. Investors, looking backwards, will once again realize they missed opportunities."

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/09/13/gurus-still-keen-on-blue-chips/

 

[Birchtree]

How quickly I've not tended to my dividend reinvestments - at least we're not at the April 23rd highs yet so the buys are still golden in the long run. I was reading today that if the market can hold current levels for ten weeks - we are headed higher to SPX 1492 and Dow 14,000 by year end. That would be simply grand. But first we take out 1132 tomorrow.

 

[Devilduck]

Birch,

I've been following your posts and find them very useful. If I could bother you for a question you may have an answer to.

Question: For the tracker, how do I submit my contribution allocation deposit? Currently at 100% F on tracker however monthly contribution may depending on market land otherwise such as S. How do I account % wise for the additional allocation of 5.8%?

Thank you for the wisdom,

Dave

 

[Birchtree]

The tracker does not take into account any type of DCA activity. It deals only with performance criteria - often creating a difference between TSP statements and tracker results. The tracker will follow IFTs if you remember to input your changes.

 

[dannyboy]

Birch,

I've been following your posts and find them very useful. If I could bother you for a question you may have an answer to.

Question: For the tracker, how do I submit my contribution allocation deposit? Currently at 100% F on tracker however monthly contribution may depending on market land otherwise such as S. How do I account % wise for the additional allocation of 5.8%?

Thank you for the wisdom,

Dave

Hi,
My take on that is TSP allows you to plop your initial distribution in any of the funds, Contribution Allocation(CA), into funds; G,F,C,S,I. Then they give you 2 IFT's (Inter-Fund Transfer) per month. I always just put CA at 100% G then I have 2 IFT's per month to have a little (sick?) fun with and gamble away until the Thrift board sends me another message, "Whoa, DannyBoy, you got yours for the month, chill in the G, if you want, but you're done".
I see this as, CA at G-100%, kind of guarantees me that my $$$ won't get sent to a fund on a day that it's doing poorly, thus wiping out my new deposit to that account. If all your CA is in a bad place on a day, this could be painful. :embarrest:
DB

 

[tsptalk]

Birch,

I've been following your posts and find them very useful. If I could bother you for a question you may have an answer to.

Question: For the tracker, how do I submit my contribution allocation deposit? Currently at 100% F on tracker however monthly contribution may depending on market land otherwise such as S. How do I account % wise for the additional allocation of 5.8%?

Thank you for the wisdom,

Dave

Welcome Dave -

Like Birch said, the tracker is just a tool to measure investment decision making. It has nothing to do with balances or dollar amounts.

It allows us to compare apples to apples so the return of someone who may be depositing 15% of their salary each pay period, for example, can be compared to the return of a retired TSP participant who no longer makes deposits.

If you would like to follow your account balance more closely, you can use one of our returns spreadsheets on www.tsptalk.com/utilities.html. Scout's spreadsheet will track deposits and returns.

Good luck!