Birchtree's Account Talk

$50 round trip plus expenses

Here's a little something from Jonathan Clements of TWSJ - no date.

High trading costs mean that ETFs are not always the cheaper option.

They aren't as cheap as they look. Exchange-traded index funds are possibly the fund industry's hottest product, with assets now at $289 billion, up 183% since year-end 2002, easily outpacing the 90% growth in conventional index-mutual funds. Many indexing afficionados are convinced that exchange-traded funds, or ETFs are a better bet than regular index funds. But I'm not biting. The fact is, even low-cost ETFs, which trade throughout the day like stocks, can end up being surprisingly expensive - and many of these funds aren't low cost to begin with.

Robo,

You'll just have to test the waters - you have more experience with mutual funds than I do. But read on for some fun...

To be sure, exchange traded funds frequently have lower annual expenses than regular index funds that invest in the same sector. But this is no great surprise. Regular funds bear the cost of maintaining shareholder accounts, including sending out statements and paying telephone-service representatives. The funds recoup these costs through the expense ratios they charge.

By contrast, with an exchange-traded fund, you pay separately for these servicing costs. When you buy or sell an ETF, you don't go directly to the fund company, as you would with a mutual fund. Instead, you have to trade the stock-market-listed shares, and that means paying trading costs. Is it worth paying these costs? It all depends on how much you invest, how long you plan to stay put, and how much lower the ETF's expenses are.

Suppose you have $10.000 in your individual retirement account or a regular taxable account, and yoiu want to stash it in an index fund that tracks small-company value stocks. You could buy Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index, a regular index-mutual fund that levies 0.23% a year. Alternatively, you could purchase the ETF version - Vanguard Small-Cap Valuw VIPERS - which charges 0.12%. The VIPERS lower expenses mean an $11 a year savings on a $10,000 investment.

Let's presume you pay a $20 brokerage commission to buy the VIPERS and $20 to sell. You would also lose a little money to the trading spread, the slight difference between the ETF's buy and sell price. Such price differences reflect the profit earned by market makers, the firms that handle stock-market buy and sell orders.

According to Vanguard Group, the spread on the VIPERS has lately been 0.13%, equal to $13 on a $10,000 investment. Add that to the commission costs and your total trading tab would be $53. Divide that $53 by the VIPERs $11 annual cost advantage, and you find the exchange-traded fund would be a better deal if you hung on for five years.

Morningstar Inc. tracks 190 ETFs - and 58 have net annual expenses of 0.6% or more. True, 0.6% is lower than the expenses on many actively managed mutual funds. But remember, with ETFs, you will also pay trading costs - and all you're likely to collect is the performance of the underlying index, minus whatever costs you incur. The higher the fund's annual expenses and the more you incur in trading costs, the further you will lag behind the benchmark index.

In 2004, Vanguard introduced 11 ETFs that track sectors like financials and consumer staples. One fund charges a tiny 0.12% and the rest a modest 0.26%. In many of these sectors, there's no index-mutual fund alternative, except for some Vanguard funds with $100,000 minimums.

So Robo, to answer your original question I'm clueless. The only mutual funds I own I own via retirement plans, otherwise I'm strictly a stock owner. Currently I don't own any Roth or regular IRAs preferring to stay with my own home built mutual fund. When you buy stocks in a Roth the dividends are generally reinvested for free every 3 months. You actually have much more flexibility with individual stocks and you can be selective which ones to take profits on. Lately I've been loosing stocks to take overs - makes 4 this year - soon I won't have an account. Already got my eye on some replacements.

Dennis
 
Do I apply for singing lessons or what? Will the choir accept me?

From Merrill - David Rosenberg, North American Economist - 3/12/06

During the past two months, 55% of the major U.S. economic indicators have actually come in below consensus. That brings us to the market's view of what the Fed is likely to do. The consensus is that policy makers will push the funds rate to 5% or more. We continue to think that 4.75% will be the peak. We may seem to be stubborn (and it's tempting to follow the herd), but if the Fed is truly going to depend on economic data as it makes its decision, we think that making further increases after the March 27-28 meeting may be going too far. Simply put, the numbers for the economy and inflation do not seem to be compatible with a sustained tightening in Fed policy. Be that as it may, the Fed has no hard and fast policy rule; perhaps the Fed funds futures contract is the new guide for the central bank. Our conclusion is that the Fed is practically done.

From Merrill - Mary Ann Bartels, Technical Research Analyst, 3/12/06

We had been expecting a correction sometime in the first quarter, but if money flows into the market continues, we think that further new recovery highs are likely to be made. Historically, the equity market has peaked, on average, during the month of April during mid-term election years, then declined until a low was set in October. We therefore believe that the risk to our forecast is that our targets for the market will be hit in the first quarter without a correction and that a correction will begin in the second quarter. That said we remain cautious on the equity market, which has yet to register the kind of technical readings that suggest that a new leg of a sustainable advance is beginning. This is an aging market cycle, and we continue to think that the market could have a peak to trough correction of close to 20% this year.

Folks, just so you know, the Birch bullmeister doesn't believe a word of this doom and gloom scenario. I believe there is more risk being out of the market at this time than being invested. You have to be in to win. It looks as though it is overwhelmingly againt the possibility of a back to back secular bull market developing - just the kind of odds I like. You may be surprised how fast 3000 Dow points can add up - I'm ready regardless.
 
Another one bites the dust

Looks like I'm going to lose another stock to a buy out - that's a total of 5 now. Merck wants Schering for $18Billion. If this keeps up my portfolio will eventually be decimated. There may actually be a number 6 in the wings - my GLB was very active in after hours trading on Friday. So if investors see no reason to own stocks at least other companies can see the merits - this may go on for some time to come. As long as they continue to pay a premium price they can have what I own - there are`many other stocks that are attractive to me. This should eventually trickle into the C fund with a decreasing float and all the share buy backs over the last several years.

The sacrifice is that when I give up a stock I also give up dividend income that I use to reinvest. I know it's not good to see a bull whine in public.

Dennis
 
They could be watching you!

Birchtree,

Thank you for your input about trading. I was told by American Century the total cost would be 25.00 per trade. Total round trip 50.00. I don't really trade much, but most Mutual Funds now have software to track you if you make too many short-term trades. On occasion I will make some extra transfers. Read the letter below. This is why I'm making some changes in some of my accounts. I called all of my Mutual Funds and they all said the same as the letter below. My account was suspended for 3 short-term transfer in January. They reserve the right to suspended accounts for short-term trading.

The letter they sent me:

Dear Robo

On May 28, 2004, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released their final rule RIN 3235-AI99 addressing excessive trading involving open-end mutual fund companies and variable annuity insurance companies.

Because of this ruling (and subsequent action brought against open-end mutual fund companies and insurance companies selling variable annuities), pension plan providers offering variable account programs had to comply with the SEC ruling. Initially using a manual system, we tried to manage this particular issue with limited success. It was not until late 2005 that we were able to implement a more accurate program to track frequent trading. That is why in January 2006, our program revealed activity in your accounts that is in conflict with the SEC rule.

During January you requested 3 balance transfers in your CAP/RSF accounts. Frequent, large or short-term transfers among subaccounts, such as those associated with "market timing" transactions, can adversely affect the funds and the returns which impacts all participants. Such transfers may dilute the value of fund shares and interfere with the efficient management of the Funds' portfolios, and increase brokerage and administrative costs of the Funds. To protect participants and the funds from potentially harmful trading activity, the xxxx xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx Fund Custodian, have implemented certain market timing policies and procedures.

These policies and procedures apply to the recent transfers in your account. To minimize the market timing impact on all participants, your telephone/fax/internet transfer requests for your accounts are being suspended until June 1, 2006. You may continue to request transfers in writing through the U.S. mail or overnight delivery addressed to M&I Retirement Services xxxx xxxxxxx Appleton, Wi.

We understand that you may wish to periodically transfer money among subaccounts. Please contact our Retiement Investment and Planning Unit if you would like to discuss investment options or if you have any questions regarding this information. We can be contacted at 1-800-xxx-xxxx option 3. Our business hours are Monday through Friday, 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Central time.

Dennis, If you or anyone else would like to read the rule it's at the link below.
http://www.sec.gov/rules/final/33-8408.htm

II. DISCUSSION
A. Disclosure Concerning Frequent Purchases and Redemptions of Fund Shares

3. Description of Fund Policies and Procedures With Respect to Frequent Purchases and Redemptions


The account Director informed me that the policy changed in January 2006, and that I was a bad boy. Vanguard also changed some rules in January. Sent the paperwork Friday to rollerover Vanguard accounts to American Century. Six moves a year per Fund, that should be enough. I can switch between 2 funds that gives me 12 transfers a year if I need them.

We have around 150K in the account suspended by the short-term trading tracking cops. We can't move the money electronically until June 2006. Reminds me of the old TSP rules. I know you don't make many transfers, but you do have exceptional knowledge in many area's. That is why I asked you the question about Roth Brokerage accounts. I'll let you know how it works out. Decided to start out with 10k. I can transfer additional funds from my regular Roth if I need to. I hope it's not because of loses. I hope it's because I 'm having fun and making some money.... Hoo ah!!!

I would not be surprised to see TSP try the same thing down the road. The SEC Final Rule gives them the legal ability to do so. I sure hope not.
Anyway, nice talking with you again Big Bull... Take Care!!!!

Robo
 
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Re: They could be watching you!

robo said:
I would not be surprised to see TSP try the same thing down the road. The SEC Final Rule gives them the legal ability to do so. I sure hope not.

I hope not either but it is a distinct possibility. This is a quote from the TSP Web site in a discussion about fair valuation adjustments in the I fund - "To date, the TSP has chosen to use only fair value pricing, but that may change in the future."

Somebody posted a statistic on this board a while back, I can't remember the source, but it said of the 4 million TSP participants, those that traded frequently (defined by 2 or more trades a week) numbered 163. It's an old statistic so I'm sure that number has grown. And if you broaden the definition of frequently to say, once every two weeks or more then that number would increase by quite a bit. Still hopefully it is a small enough number that TSP doesn't really care. But if that number were to get big enough, I'm sure they would try to find a way to discourage us from frequent trades.

Dave
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No more word on GLB - thankfully

But now they are after my AZR - when will it end? Why are they after my stocks - leave me incognito, please.
 
A big BULL headfake - don't you believe it.

The S&P 500 at 1297.48 closed at its highest point since May 22, 2001.

The DJIA at 11,151.34 closed at its highest point since June 5, 2001.

As a public service announcent - there are plenty of discounted seats still available in the G fund. And if your are over fifty you qualify for the senior discount - how great is that my friends. If you are contemplating getting back to stocks please have your rolaids handy - and bring along some dramamine for motion sickness. We are going to rock or I'll hang my head with humility.

The odds of an upside breakout are far better than a downside breakdown. The trading range will more than likely turn out to be a basing pattern for this current advance - almost a 3to1 ratio of buyers to sellers today. Why - who knows - the answer will be more readily available in three months or so.
 
Re: A big BULL headfake - don't you believe it.

Birchtree said:
The S&P 500 at 1297.48 closed at its highest point since May 22, 2001.

The DJIA at 11,151.34 closed at its highest point since June 5, 2001.

As a public service announcent - there are plenty of discounted seats still available in the G fund. And if your are over fifty you qualify for the senior discount - how great is that my friends. If you are contemplating getting back to stocks please have your rolaids handy - and bring along some dramamine for motion sickness. We are going to rock or I'll hang my head with humility.

The odds of an upside breakout are far better than a downside breakdown. The trading range will more than likely turn out to be a basing pattern for this current advance - almost a 3to1 ratio of buyers to sellers today. Why - who knows - the answer will be more readily available in three months or so.

I tend to agree with you and will probably be joining you VERY VERY soon.
 
Spike'em higher without remorse

Dow Transports - 4591.76, new all-time high
Wilshire 5000 - 13130.68, new all-time high
NYSE Composite - 8236.69, new all-time high
AMEX Composite 1909.46, new all-time high
Russell 2000 - 742.94, new all-time high
S&P Small Cap 600 - 382.76, new all-time high
Value Line Index - 2063.45, new all-time high
NYAD - new all-time high
NYUD - new all time high

A new impulsive price structure to the upside is about to begin - keep your eye on the Dow Utilities - need only 30 more points for a new all-time high for confirmation - then will give us another six months before any consideration of a peak. Secular bull? mega bull trend? ride the storm and see where it ends. I want Dow 15,000.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree,

Congrats for your rightfully calls about the market so far. I only could sit back with a smile and admire your bullish thinking (of course you have your market data to back you up).

Today, my power account hits all time high and I believe yours too. Please keep delivering your market messages and I believe that a lot of members here will get benefits from your calls.

Thank you so much.

Ocean
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

ocean said:
Birchtree,

Congrats for your rightfully calls about the market so far. I only could sit back with a smile and admire your bullish thinking (of course you have your market data to back you up).

Today, my power account hits all time high and I believe yours too. Please keep delivering your market messages and I believe that a lot of members here will get benefits from your calls.

Thank you so much.

Ocean

We can all make calls but if your making calls and not making a move to make the intended cash what does it get you? Talk is cheap, it takes money to buy whiskey! The buy and hold was to me a good strategy prior to the internet. Now you have the tools to manage your money daily and yet few do so. Especially at only the cost of an e-mail! Birchy could be playing the C fund as he may be closer to retiring and obviously he has his reasons and there is nothing wrong with that but in a bull market we should all be more aggressive.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

cowboy said:
We can all make calls but if your making calls and not making a move to make the intended cash what does it get you?

Cowboy,

I don't agree with that. In order to stay 100% in certain funds, where it is C, I, S, F or even G, it takes a lot of courage for a person to do that. Not only you need to have complete confident on your decision, but also you are playing with your retirement money. Any adverse or wrong moves will tamper and affect your future retirement life style. "No moves" does not equal "no investment". It just means that you want that position continue to grow until certain condition changes.

One example, I can say that I am the number one mover in this board. But my returns can't match with Birch at this point (this year). I don't want to stand on any sides or start a war here. I guess we all have our own investment style and I admire Birch's confident in his selection. I also Admire Tom's decision to stay on G fund mostly this year disregard the current condition of the market.

Bottom line, let's all make money one way or the other on our TSP.

Ocean
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think it really depends on each persons situation, I will be very set in my CSRS retirement when it happens in 5 to 6 years, When I was hired TSP didn't even exist. I still knew that my retirement would be enough back then. So TSP to me is like gravy or fun money, so I move it a fair amount and gamble with it like 100% I Fund for a month at a time realizing that it is voliltile. But if I was really counting on it to be the majority of my retirement package I probably would be a lot more conservative with it. My 2 cents worth. I do enjoy reading the threads here and I would hope that everyone makes money, but I guess the one goal should just be to outpace inflation.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Why not have a poll! Three parameters on two conditions:

...I have a strategy.
...I don't have a strategy.

...I'm making money.
...I'm losing money.

...I'm sleeping well.
...I can't sleep.

Rgds..........:) ..........Spaf
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I have a strategy, I just don't know what it is.

I'm making money, for now anyway, probably not for long

and I have sleep apnea, so I don't have any problem sleeping
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

ocean said:
Cowboy,

I don't agree with that. In order to stay 100% in certain funds, where it is C, I, S, F or even G, it takes a lot of courage for a person to do that. Not only you need to have complete confident on your decision, but also you are playing with your retirement money. Any adverse or wrong moves will tamper and affect your future retirement life style. "No moves" does not equal "no investment". It just means that you want that position continue to grow until certain condition changes.

One example, I can say that I am the number one mover in this board. But my returns can't match with Birch at this point (this year). I don't want to stand on any sides or start a war here. I guess we all have our own investment style and I admire Birch's confident in his selection. I also Admire Tom's decision to stay on G fund mostly this year disregard the current condition of the market.

Bottom line, let's all make money one way or the other on our TSP.

Ocean

LOL! So what did you gain by saying your the number one mover? Absolutely nothing! Except admitting Birchy was ahead of you. I move 100% into a fund and tell you that the fund is going down are you going to jump into the fire? Why would I do that type of move? I made a move last week in the I fund but I moved out a day earler than I should of was that my fault? Can you look at my thread and tell me where that move was? One day on a short term is huge if your managing money. (Hint) it would of gained me $.27.
 
The branding iron from the Cowboy felt good I must say.

From Merrill - David Rosenberg, North American Economist

Indications are that core CPI inflation probably peaked for this cycle at a year-to-year rate of 2.4% in February 2005. If so, that would be the lowest cyclical peak for that measure since January 1964. Back then, the 10-year Treasury note was yielding 4.15%, the funds rate was 3.5%, and the trailing P/E ratio for the S&P 500 was 19. Today, those figures are 4.67%, 4.5% and 17. That could suggest that both stocks and bonds are priced attractively if, indeed, 2.4% proves to be the lowest cyclical peak in inflation in more than 40 years.

Dennis - sounds like there may be some capital gain available in bonds. I may end up waiting a long time to get a 7% rate.
 
There may be good reasons to be bullish on stocks but

the Fed may not be one of them. Banc of America Securities strategist Tom McManus points out that all this excitement over the Fed seems to be based on just one snippet of history - the rally that occurred as the Fed wrapped up a year-long series of rate increases in early 1995.

Stocks' more typical reaction over the past half-century to the Fed ending one of its tightening cycles, Mr. McManus found, has been a year of so-so gains. What'smore, shares in companies with reliable sales, such as groceries (we all gotta eat), tend to do better than more volitile stocks, such as tech shares.

Legg Mason Capital Management strategist Michael Mauboussin thinks a general problem many market participants have is that they focus on one event (such as the Fed will stop raising rates) when they should be paying closer attention to the reason something is happening. The question you have to think hard about is: Are the circumstances different?

Still, one would think investors should spend more time thinking about what has been generally true in the past than what was true just once. There may be good reasons to be bullish on stocks. The Fed may not be one of them.
From TWSJ.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, would like your opinion [permabull #1]

Folks talk about a pullback. A pullback occurs in a bear market, not a bull market. Bull markets have corrections. We were in a trading range for a few months, is that not a correction of sorts? On my active trader the stocks make at times daily corrections. We don't have to have a major correction if minor corrections are being made!

With all the weird spin and false information, sometimes I get confused in the fog.

Would appreciate your 2 cents! Rgds................:confused: ............Spaf
 
Semantics my friend - all we both want is a Primary Dow Theory Confirmation

Spaf,

The majority of technicians out there can't decide if we are in a cyclical bull market inside a secular bear market or if we are in a continuing secular bull market after experiencing a cyclical bear market. I happen to think as a minority opinion we are in back to back secular bull markets - this has never happened before. Back in 3/05 - 4/05 that 900 point drop we had could have been termed a counter trend down or one hell of a correction and it certainly was a pull back because it hurt so much. But the market then righted itself and continued along to new intermediate highs.

Today was a small sideways consolidation rater than a counter trend down or pull back - at this point in time even a counter trend down would not damage the established uptrend. However, a sideways consolidation or correction that takes several days to complete would indicate an even stronger trend.

The Dow had a 2 year sideways pattern or consolidation correction from the 3000 points off the 3/03 lows. This type of consolidation definitely was drwn out but at the same time was healthy building the foundation for the next 3000 point run - which we may be starting. This prolonged and troublesome sideways consolidation and yes synonymous with correction has allowed me ample opportunity to accumulate more positions and has been a very bullish structure. If this market will give me further gains I will do more (much more) buying and some selling for profits reinvestment.

S&P Small Cap 600 385.16, at new all-time high today.

Long term investors have paid their fair share of dues and pain delivered by this humbling market - now is time for payback. Many new participants like to hold onto their moderate gains - they haven't learned the seasoned art of suffering with dignity - but they will undoubtedly over time. Whenever I experience pain I look for the silver thread - what to buy next that has gotten cheaper. I just love this great country.

And no offense meant - but you probably did buy that I fund on the intermediate high - but no matter, just dollar cost average on the (pull back). The internationals are another secular bull market happening - when you consider the Nikkei based or consolidated for 15 years. Take care.
 
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