Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Everytime the dollar declines, it makes the U.S. more competitive on international trade, and that is the customer the world is aching for. The export/import story is already showing a change in direction as exports growth is moving up fast - faster than import growth. This will take a while to catch up on a nominal basis, but it will happen as U.S. prices continue to show the massive gain in productivity gains by U.S. manufacturers over the last 20 years. And where was the U.S. dollar index in 1995 when that terrific growth phase began - essentially right where it is now. I can't be any more positive than that regarding the dollar. The dollar is not contributing to any large increase in inflation. Time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market.
Click to expand...

But the leaders of the new world order Hugo Chavez and AchmenaCanIbuyaVoweljah said they had a master plan to collapse the dollar. :nuts::D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Posting here because somewhere in this thread “Nikkei” is spoken of according to the search feature (must be buried a ways back)

I funders watch the Nikkei I’ve noticed when it opens (in early evening for me). But as far as the I fund is concerned, it’s just kind of being watched as an indicator as opposed to having anything to do with I fund calculations isn’t it?

Also, Birchtree, you said in Z’s thread you were prepared to go I if it dropped below $24.00. Decided to IFT into I (with change into C&F) yesterday as it “looked” real close to me, but was surprised by the late hour spike and FV running it up 50 cents (not that anything recent is surprising). I’m not too unhappy with the entry point, and least not yet:) Are you still holding?

I apologize to Z for going off in his thread about the limits issue, was slowing fading, and the delete or edit feature I noticed tonight isn’t available even if signed on. I’ll try in the future to not PWI.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Rustynutt said:
I funders watch the Nikkei I’ve noticed when it opens (in early evening for me). But as far as the I fund is concerned, it’s just kind of being watched as an indicator as opposed to having anything to do with I fund calculations isn’t it?
Click to expand...

The Nikkei is part of the I Fund, so it has some to do with the calculations.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I placed an IFT to pick up another 3% COB today - that may get me closer to $24.00. I'm prepared to track it which ever way it goes. I've been lucky on two previous round trips - I'll DCA until I get my letter.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I placed an IFT to pick up another 3% COB today - that may get me closer to $24.00. I'm prepared to track it which ever way it goes. I've been lucky on two previous round trips - I'll DCA until I get my letter.
Click to expand...

Birch,

I enjoy reading your comments among the various threads....

I'd appreciate your thoughts on a newbie question :

I've been reading about "DCA" into or out of a fund. If you're doing this strictly by IFT (i.e., no payroll deposits), what do you recommend to use as the "unit" ? It looks like you use 3 %....do you base that on your account balance, or what ?

Thanks for enlightening me, and Go Gators !!! :D I miss G'ville, AND boiled peanuts....

Stop...
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Stoplight,

My last two round trips I used a 2% DCA and got out after a 12% accumulation. This time I'm using 3% and will perhaps get out when I reach 15%. The I fund is not my favorite fund so I've been practicing in preparation to be more active in position trading in the spring. I'm looking forward to the day when I can roll $40,000 per point - that will put me in the league with ATCJeff and Ocean. With only two trades available per month in the future will require some good planning - but the potential is enormous because this volatility will continue. I look back and think what would have happened if I'd sold my C fund at $17.57 and bought back at $16.12 for a $1.45 turn - that's how money can be made. Make a round trip like that only twice a year for the next ten years and balances will explode. The more shares working the greater the profit potential.

I see the Dow on an intraday basis just hit 12,846 - is this the bottom? Make that 12,825.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Something with a bullish flavor is now needed. The midcycle slow down periods of the mid 1980s and mid 1990s were accompanied by relatively meaningful expansions in stock prices. Today, the U.S. market is trading at about 15 times earnings. When coupled with the current level of interest rates, this is the lowest P/E in nearly 20 years. There were times in 1995 and in 1990 when the market traded at about the same P/E as the present time. But at the time, interest rates were about 150 basis points higher. When comparative interest rates are incorporated, and they are going even lower next year, the U.S. stock market is trading at or below those levels - bargain priced in terms of value. Double Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

phillyfed said:
But the leaders of the new world order Hugo Chavez and AchmenaCanIbuyaVoweljah said they had a master plan to collapse the dollar. :nuts::D
Click to expand...

Hugo "Why don't you just shut-up" Chavez and the Iranian is not calling the shots. In Iran - The Assembly of Experts runs the show [and they are more conservative; and I'm not taling in just a religous sense either.] Ahmadinejad and Chavez just have a lot of lip. They make good press 'copy'
Chavez can talk all he wants about selling his oil elsewhere (The Chinese)but the fact is Venuzealean oil has a high sulfer content (sour oil-it's not light sweet crude) and US refineries are set up to refine that goop-not Chinese refineries. Chavez needs dollars to keep himself in power.

Refineries are not built overnight and the Chinese are not going to **** with our oil supply. Not unless they want tariffs on their WalMart junk.
Watch that economic tiger fold like a jack knife if that happens.
They have to keep their people employed or risk revolution.
Their already getting a hard lesson in consumer protection.

Ahhh globilizatrion. 2 edged sword.

Cogitate on this to-If I owe you billions and billions of dollars or securities. Do you really think I'm going to repay you or let you redeem securities? Your a fool to get yourself in that position. You'll probably get the interest on the principal and a chance to buy more paper or I'll fold up and take your export driven economy with me. BUWAHAHA

I love paper money. It gives you leverage. So does HUGE debt.

Never lend anyone a lot of money. At least that is what my Dad told me.:laugh::laugh:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks, Birch !

But what criteria do you use to choose the 2% or 3% starting point ? :confused:

If you'll have to kill me if you tell me, never mind.... :)

Stop...
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Stoplight,

Sorry I wasn't more specific. A 3% of my current balance is around $18,000 and that would give me around 750 I shares at $24.00. That seems adequate for my tastes. If the I fund price does drop below $24.00 then I'll buy more and end up with perhaps more shares providing my C fund doesn't drop considerably. My DCA allotment from payroll will hit Friday and buy me more C fund shares. Dollar cost averaging has been my portfolio redeemer over the years - auto pilot to benefit when we are on the downside - no guess work.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Stoplight,

Sorry I wasn't more specific. A 3% of my current balance is around $18,000 and that would give me around 750 I shares at $24.00. That seems adequate for my tastes. If the I fund price does drop below $24.00 then I'll buy more and end up with perhaps more shares providing my C fund doesn't drop considerably. My DCA allotment from payroll will hit Friday and buy me more C fund shares. Dollar cost averaging has been my portfolio redeemer over the years - auto pilot to benefit when we are on the downside - no guess work.
Click to expand...

Birch,

Thanks much for your clarification ! So it sounds like your choice of 2% or whatever is based on your comfort level....

I THOUGHT you were retired already....sorry I misunderstood...an active payroll deduction is a no-brainer DCA contribution :) I always maxed out my deduction, AND took advantage of the > 50 "catch-up" when I could.

As someone who has left Fed service BUT is not quite old enough to collect the pension OR the TSP distribution, I'm struggling with trying to figure out how to use DCA to play the markets via strictly IFT's....maybe I'll float a new thread in another forum and see what others are doing, too.

Again, thanks for your comments, and hope you and yours have a great Thanksgiving, and many years of successful investing !

Stop...
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

At this time, I see the I-Fund at $24.10 a share. Thats with the EFA
priced at $79.25 per share. Just a little info from my tracking.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

That would be close enough for my most recent 3% bite - I nailed it yesterday at $24.68. But no harm done especially when it goes back to $26.31. Thanks for your update.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Stoplight,

The easiest way to play DCA with IFTs is to peel off a small percentage into the G fund as the market rallies - that is difficult to do because you sacrifice profit potential on the way up. But you end up with cash to take opportunity of days like today. Many strategies will have to change due to the newer restrictions that are evolving. I will be retiring this coming spring and all my time will be concentrated on running money. No bear market on the horizon until the 4 year cycle nests in October, 2010.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

fedgolpher,

You had asked a question regarding Dow Theory sell signals on another thread. I couldn't answer you there because of courtesy restraints - why don't you open an account talk. The DJIA has to break and close below 12,845.78. A violation of one average, unconfirmed by the other, would not constitute a bear market signal. Both averages (DJIA and DJTA) must decline and break their August 16 lows. The DJTA has done that by dropping and closing below 4672.35. A violation of one average, while the other average stubbornly refuses to follow, could represent a bullish non-confirmation. We actually went down to Dow of 12,826 earlier today and I'll be tracking the close. Even if we get the sell signal I'm still not getting out - these prices are too good to sacrifice to capital preservation - I'll be reinvesting my dividend cash until it hurts so bad it feel good. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Do you really believe in the Dow theory? I mean, wasn't it invented around 1890 or so? How much do we rely on railroads anymore? There was an article in the WSJ a month or so back, I'm sure you remember Birch. It basically explained how the Dow theory is obsolete.
 
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