Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

anthony said:
I think you just have to ask yourself one question: When is retirement? If it isn't in the next year, then by bailing out it seems you stand a good chance of losing. Remember you haven't really lost anything if you still own the shares.

If oil prices meet with reality and finally drop back down, this market is going snap back up like a rubber band. Every bear in history gets followed by climbs to new record higher highs. IF this goes to a bear, I think oil price changes will be what pulls it out.

So the counter to staying invested is the idea that you can time this perfectly and buy more shares at the bottom. A snap-back off of oil price drops is going to be a tough bottom to pick. Risk tolerance works both ways - can you afford to risk missing the bottom? Or, even worse, what if the market doesn't follow the rules, breaks the Dow Theory signal and then decides to climb to new highs just to spite. Then where will you be?
Click to expand...


Excellent advise - and very well put. I've got another 12 years to go but I've only got until the end of 12/07 to end the year with the 07 goal and that leaves absolutely no room for error. So I may wind up losing several thousand but that is trivial compared to starting 08 under the goal. Anyway - I like your logic - and no doubt Birch will as well - I'll probably stay put until next week and see what happens, as in reality I haven't lost anything staying put.
Thanks man, appreciate it - and welcome to the MB.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, please tell me, how low will this thing go before you cry "BEAR" and move to G? Do you have a cut off?

Thx
GGAL
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Will I cry "bear" at this high level - hardly. I purchased my first 2007 C fund share at $15.69 and continued to nibble via DCA right up to $17.53. And now I'm headed back to the low $16.00 price - all that means I get more shares to accumulate. I did two small 10%-12% round trips on the I fund and am prepared for another fling at $24.00. Friends, these corrections are opportunities and the low prices won't last long. The Dow has to drop to 12.845.78 to signal the start of a bear market - but that's only a signal. There will be many head fakes along the way - and no one ever said this game was easy. Be right and sit tight even if you are nervous - for me now is not the time to get out. I'll take the body blows and keep on buying.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks Birchtree. Your post did a very nice job of placing some perspective on this for me. You're right...I started at $15.69 and while i've taken some tough body blows..I've accumulated some cash. I've learned a lot as well this year. Who knows, maybe I can recoup my losses before the year is out..especially if we can get this market to start marching to 14000...

FS
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

the END is near...beware of the calamity approaching.....is it red or green...or is it neural or stop signs today?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mr recognizer said:
the END is near...beware of the calamity approaching.....is it red or green...or is it neural or stop signs today?
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Yes. Think bear. Think end of the world. We need more fear. Jump ship please. Too many people are weighing it down.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Will I cry "bear" at this high level - hardly. I purchased my first 2007 C fund share at $15.69 and continued to nibble via DCA right up to $17.53. And now I'm headed back to the low $16.00 price - all that means I get more shares to accumulate. I did two small 10%-12% round trips on the I fund and am prepared for another fling at $24.00. Friends, these corrections are opportunities and the low prices won't last long. The Dow has to drop to 12.845.78 to signal the start of a bear market - but that's only a signal. There will be many head fakes along the way - and no one ever said this game was easy. Be right and sit tight even if you are nervous - for me now is not the time to get out. I'll take the body blows and keep on buying.
Click to expand...
been sitting tight if you look at $ sometimes it dont feel right ,just turn your head and cough:D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

All this weekly volatility does not bother me, I was expecting it. The bottom is now forming for the next up cycle - 9 month is nesting. I think....
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch - thank you for your example and Anthony thank you for your post. Anyway - I went 60/40 to S/C the day of the rally and began to think like everyone else as the markets plunged, but then I settled back and realized in all liklihood I still bought for a fairly good price and the overwhelming odds are the markets will undoubtedly have some good days before it's all done. So the point of all this is I am learning to relax - even when things look terrible - because I'm getting a better feel for the overall picture. Thank you for convincing me not to bail out and take an even bigger loss. Peace :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

In 2006 I made 305 individual stock purchases with a hefty percentage done in July '06. I bought heavily in March '07 and again in August '07 to the tune of 522 individual purchases for the year. I prefer to buy during corrections and will not hesitate to buy more in 2008 if the opportunity is presented. I'm very bullish for the future and one of my leading statistics is now moving to below its -250 level - that's the common only NYSE breadth MCSUM. That's a good area to rally from after building a base. Some of the top market timers are stll bullish: Don R. Hays, Dan Sullivan, Bob Brinker. The best market timers are 83% bullish - the worst performers are at 9% equity exposure. I'm bullish until 2010.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
In 2006 I made 305 individual stock purchases with a hefty percentage done in July '06. I bought heavily in March '07 and again in August '07 to the tune of 522 individual purchases for the year. I prefer to buy during corrections and will not hesitate to buy more in 2008 if the opportunity is presented. I'm very bullish for the future and one of my leading statistics is now moving to below its -250 level - that's the common only NYSE breadth MCSUM. That's a good area to rally from after building a base. Some of the top market timers are stll bullish: Don R. Hays, Dan Sullivan, Bob Brinker. The best market timers are 83% bullish - the worst performers are at 9% equity exposure. I'm bullish until 2010.
Click to expand...

What happens in 2010 Birchtree? I would like to know because you usually aren't negative about anything in stocks that is.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

mayday said:
What happens in 2010 Birchtree? I would like to know because you usually aren't negative about anything in stocks that is.
Click to expand...

FWIW, thats when I become elegible for full social insecurity:nuts: (minus the csrs windfall hit:sick::mad: I got for switching to fers at it's inception. fers still the better deal!:))
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The next nesting of the 4 year cycle will be in October 2010. It may be best to begin stepping aside a little before that date arrives.

How about a little good news and a little bads news for the week ahead. First my good news: Investors may get more bad news in the coming week, which ends on "Black Friday", the day after Thanksgiving, traditionally the day when many retailers turn profitable for the year. The week begins with a gauge of the increasingly glum mood of home builders, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Economists at Lehman Brothers expect the index to slide to its lowest level since it began in 1985. If the NAHB report doesn't dim investors' holiday spirits enough, the Commerce Department's Tuesday report on October housing starts could do the trick. In September, the index dropped 10%, much worse than expected. Another big decline could be in the cards - knock'em down is what I say.

Now for my bad news: Americans' appetite for foreign investments is at exceptional levels. More than 95% of net inflows of money into stock funds has gone to internationally focused funds this year. As recently as five years ago, that net number was less than 10%. At the same time, investors are yanking money out of U.S.-focused stock funds. In August and September, some $20 billion was pulled, the largest two month outflow since late 2002. in the wake of the dot-com bust. This contrarian is doing just the opposite for his Mrs. - staying away from the herd. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and India's Sensex, are each up about 40% this year. Overall, world stock funds have returned 16.3% this year, compared with 5.2% for U.S. diversified stock funds on average. I'll stick with the S&P 500 type stocks, thank you.

http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The market as we all know has entered a seasonally strong time of the year, during the past 25 years, November and December have never both been down in the same year. Near-term momentum is about as oversold as it gets even as hedge funds remain a major source of liquidity and money growth remains robust. I'm giving the market the benefit of the doubt. Watch to see if the S&P 500's August low is violated. That would be a particular worry if the index's 50-day moving average were to violate its 200-day moving average. A failed rally from here would position the index for a lower low and a lower high, which would define a new downtrend. Since the S&P 500's bear market low in 2002, the 50-day moving average has traded below the 200-day moving average only twice (late in 2004 and in the summer of 2006) - that was a great buying opportunity.

The PCE index was up 1.8% annually through September, which is inside the Fed's perceived comfort zone. Core CPI was up 2.2% and I don't care what John Mauldin has to say. The financial markets continue to expect another rate reduction when Fed policy makers meet December 11th. Core inflation is well enough behaved that the Fed isn't going to feel constrained in lowering rates by concerns about inflation should the growth outlook erode significantly. The recent data should provide some comfort to Federal Reverve officials that high oil and commodity prices and the weak dollar aren't leading to higher underlying inflation. Be right and sit tight. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

A week ago or so the HSNI stood at just 7.7%. This means the average short-term market timing newsletters is now almost completely out of the stock market. The reading from last week was 8.5% so nothing has changed. This is bullish from a contrary opinion viewpoint. Something big is in the making - a surprise breakout in the context of the 1974 - 2003 move. Remember, bull market corrections are always hard and fast and where stupidity is practiced, suffering soon follows. I think Bullitt said the Canadians will save the retailer this year - while our own consumer spending picked up to a 3 percent annual rate during the third quarter from 1.4% in the secomnd quarter, a powerful stimulant since consumers fuel about two-thirds of national economic activity. I think the best is still in front of us and the idea of a larger 3rd wave is still in progress.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Although inflation concerns are proving to be stubborn, the latest reading for U.S. core CPI once again highlighted that the odds of a deflation scare are climbing." Check out the other links regarding Germany and the ECB.

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
 
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