BigJohn's Account Talk

[BigJohn]

My guess for the day is a lot of sideways action with the funds eeking out a minor gain for the day. I do think the Debt Ceiling/4 million dollar budget battle has already been factored in and don't expect much of a bounce when it finally gets resolved. I may hedge on my earlier plan of waiting for the first negative .5% open to get back in...

Yesterday's prediction was a bit off...but not by too much. A buddy of mine came by my office a few hours ago gloating that he was in the market (and knowing I was out). I told him that I thought the close was going to be between a positive .5% and a negative .5% in the S Fund...not sure if today's prediction will hold, but it is looking darn close. I also told him that if my guess ended up being correct, that I thought a really big ugly was coming our way. Caveat Emptor: I barely understand a head and shoulders pattern, couldn't spot a Fibonacci Theory if my life depended on it...and until recently thought the "Elliott Wave Theory" had surfing connotations.

 

[jpcavin]

I barely understand a head and shoulders pattern, couldn't spot a Fibonacci Theory if my life depended on it...and until recently thought the "Elliott Wave Theory" had surfing connotations.

You must be reading my mind. You have no idea how true this rings for me. :laugh:

 

[GUCHI]

You must be reading my mind. You have no idea how true this rings for me. :laugh:
jp
but you know how to buy a house, that says sumppin!

 

[FAB1]

My guess for the day is a lot of sideways action with the funds eeking out a minor gain for the day. I do think the Debt Ceiling/4 million dollar budget battle has already been factored in and don't expect much of a bounce when it finally gets resolved. I may hedge on my earlier plan of waiting for the first negative .5% open to get back in...

Best of Luck to all.

Gap up, high gains with an afternoon reversal. Not same as your prediction but ended up about the same.:cheesy:
Im not regretting jumping in so far but I am glad I didnt burn 2 IFTs for a .65 gain. I guess if we dont get "bad news"
we can move up some more tomorrow.

 

[JTH]

LAT did a simular thing I did back in May. I escaped with .61% for the month off a 1 day play. I ended up looking brillant when the markets headed down, down, down, down...

View attachment 14474

 

[FAB1]

Mmm yeah and that was a reversal day as well. Day 3 was pretty sweet, just think if you had stuck 2 more days youdabeen the Super Genius.

 

[FAB1]

Oh if I had 16% like you and the Lat maybe I could afford to burn two in a row. But I am behind schedule for the year and take more risk.

 

[JTH]

But I am behind schedule for the year and take more risk.

You're ahead if the S&P 500 and you'r in the black, I'm sure there more than a few Amoebas out there who would trade with ya in a heart beat.

 

[FAB1]

now what did you have to go and post that for? I was doing real good monopolizing all the recent threads!
Actually, I see what you mean, but I have a goal I would like to meet. May was a big setback, and sadly, I was
on target, got greedy and floundered.

 

[jpcavin]

You must be reading my mind. You have no idea how true this rings for me. :laugh:
jp
but you know how to buy a house, that says sumppin!

I guess. Just wish I was market savvy too!

 

[jpcavin]

now what did you have to go and post that for? I was doing real good monopolizing all the recent threads!
Actually, I see what you mean, but I have a goal I would like to meet. May was a big setback, and sadly, I was
on target, got greedy and floundered.

And what is that goal???? Good luck catching up. I'm on a mission! :nuts:

 

[BigJohn]

Going Oliver Stone: I am starting to believe in market manipulation...and see today's early numbers as the last carrot to get those on the sidelines into the market. I think we are in for a big ugly...a 2-3% drop over the next several days. When that happens (assuming it does), I will be in with both feet...but for now, sitting on the dock of the bay.

 

[JTH]

Going Oliver Stone: I am starting to believe in market manipulation...and see today's early numbers as the last carrot to get those on the sidelines into the market. I think we are in for a big ugly...a 2-3% drop over the next several days. When that happens (assuming it does), I will be in with both feet...but for now, sitting on the dock of the bay.

I'm not prepared to step out that far with my projections, but I can see what you are talking about. It's a big puzzel we still have a few missing pieces. I myself would love to see a crash so I can have the opportunity to buy more shares.

 

[nasa1974]

Guys, Have some mercy on those of us still in the market. :nuts:

 

[BigJohn]

Going Oliver Stone: I am starting to believe in market manipulation...and see today's early numbers as the last carrot to get those on the sidelines into the market. I think we are in for a big ugly...a 2-3% drop over the next several days. When that happens (assuming it does), I will be in with both feet...but for now, sitting on the dock of the bay.

I'm not prepared to step out that far with my projections, but I can see what you are talking about. It's a big puzzel we still have a few missing pieces. I myself would love to see a crash so I can have the opportunity to buy more shares.

Paralysis is setting in: if tomorrow starts with a sizeable negative move in the S fund, my inclination (according to my strategy) would be to buy in and wait for a bounce. However, I can't shake the idea that these stair steps down are only serving as enticing entry points for those of us on the sidelines...and more importantly, we have more steps to go before we hit the landing. If I were betting JTH a grande coffee, I would bet that tomorrow the S fund opens positive (.25 to .50%) and fluctuates eventually eeking out a small gain for the day...Friday or Mon/Tues will see more negative and possibly a better entry point.

I have nothing to point at to justify my thoughts...so buyer beware!

 

[polarbear]

Greetings, BigJohn. I'm new here. I agree with you and coolhand that something smells fishy with the market right now and I am scared to go in. I wish that Birchtree would not go in, but he seems to think the bounce is soon at hand. I am not so sure. Look at how we got whipped around in May-June. And worse, the middle of last year. Hey, NASA man, sorry that you are in right now, sweating the load a little bit. I sweated the load in May-June; only I maneuvered then, see my earliest posts, so that I weathered the storm, but I was not having fun keeping from capsizing. Was not.

I had a criterion that kept me comforted: as long as I did not go noticeably below the line I would be at if I had stayed in G 100%, I did not feel bad, and during that entire event I managed to do that. But it wasn't fun! I don't wish this kind of non-fun on anyone, and I remember my worse from 2010 and 2009 and 2008, so here we are. After that royal crap in the middle of 2010, I got-in in early November to be welcomed by a lower-volume royal hee-haw, luckily it subsided and led to a beautiful December, and for others a worthwhile Jan-Apr. I suspect that might be what would welcome anyone entering the market right now, only leading into not so robust a climb, but an eventual climb. Just my feeling. Yes, may the force be with us! Go Gators!

 

[BigJohn]

Paralysis is setting in: if tomorrow starts with a sizeable negative move in the S fund, my inclination (according to my strategy) would be to buy in and wait for a bounce. However, I can't shake the idea that these stair steps down are only serving as enticing entry points for those of us on the sidelines...and more importantly, we have more steps to go before we hit the landing. If I were betting JTH a grande coffee, I would bet that tomorrow the S fund opens positive (.25 to .50%) and fluctuates eventually eeking out a small gain for the day...Friday or Mon/Tues will see more negative and possibly a better entry point.

I have nothing to point at to justify my thoughts...so buyer beware!

I need to check a calendar before posting...see: "I would bet that tomorrow the S fund opens positive (.25 to .50%) and fluctuates eventually eeking out a small gain for the day...Friday or Mon/Tues will see more negative and possibly a better entry point." On Thursday when I posted this...tomorrow would have been Friday, making it very difficult for the S Fund to not only "eeke out a small gain for the day" but to also see more negative. Sorry about that.

Got my toes over the diving board: if the pre-market negatives hold to 8:45...especially if it looks really ugly, I am going in. This may be yet another "stair step" down that I referenced earlier...but it may be too enticing to not jump in. Spotting a bottom is a murf...

 

[JTH]

I need to check a calendar before posting...see: "I would bet that tomorrow the S fund opens positive (.25 to .50%) and fluctuates eventually eeking out a small gain for the day...Friday or Mon/Tues will see more negative and possibly a better entry point." On Thursday when I posted this...tomorrow would have been Friday, making it very difficult for the S Fund to not only "eeke out a small gain for the day" but to also see more negative. Sorry about that.

Got my toes over the diving board: if the pre-market negatives hold to 8:45...especially if it looks really ugly, I am going in. This may be yet another "stair step" down that I referenced earlier...but it may be too enticing to not jump in. Spotting a bottom is a murf...

As of now, at these levels I'm getting tempted.

 

[BigJohn]

All in...S Fund.

 

[JTH]

All in...S Fund.

Somehow I knew you couldn't resist, best of entries to ya.