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BigJohn's Account Talk
- Thread starter BigJohn
- Start date
BigJohn
Member
A 2% day in hand is worth 4% in the bush...and on a serious note, have you ever opined "more risk being in than being out?" Just curious BT...just curious.
Birchtree
Well-known member
To answer your question hardly ever not even in 2008 on the lows - I was a buyer and I'm still buying. Don't you remember the 638 point Dow gain the last week in June? My thought then was why would all the oscillators impulse up so strongly if this were a truly weak market. Here we go again.
BigJohn
Member
I do remember that week, it made a lot of people (including me) a lot of cash. I hope you are right and the market keeps chugging higher; I'll spot a jumping in point and join you for the ride.
BigJohn
Nice play though! Congrats.
BigJohn
Member
Some excellent points were made in JTH's thread this morning about sharing investment strategies, especially by those that are having a lot of success this year. Here is mine:
Refinement, call it the 1% strategy:
If you are in the market and the pre-trade deadline numbers are more than 1% above where you bought in (as measured by the share price), I get out and lock it in.
If I am out of the market and the pre-trade deadline numbers are down more than 1% than the previous day's close, I go all in.
My earlier post alluded to this play but wasn't specific enough.
Buyer beware: in my 5 plus years on TSP Talk I have seen some red hot investment strategies come and go, some dropping off the board entirely and some being so successful they became a premium service. My strategy works for me for several reasons, the most significant of which is that I have a long time until retirement and can wait out a big loss...like I did in 2008. I lost about 34% in 2008...and was the highest return in 2009 because I refused to lock in a loss and left it alone...all the while buying more shares.
One BIG mistake I made early on was to allow my competitive nature dictate moves...some of the biggest mistakes I have made were motivated out of a desire to earn a coffee mug. I had to remind myself that money someone else makes is not money out of my pocket.
Finally a piece of advice: if someone on the board is kicking butt and not posting strategy, send them a message asking them to do so. I didn't post for years because I had no confidence in what I was doing and didn't want to lead others of a cliff.
Refinement, call it the 1% strategy:
If you are in the market and the pre-trade deadline numbers are more than 1% above where you bought in (as measured by the share price), I get out and lock it in.
If I am out of the market and the pre-trade deadline numbers are down more than 1% than the previous day's close, I go all in.
My earlier post alluded to this play but wasn't specific enough.
Buyer beware: in my 5 plus years on TSP Talk I have seen some red hot investment strategies come and go, some dropping off the board entirely and some being so successful they became a premium service. My strategy works for me for several reasons, the most significant of which is that I have a long time until retirement and can wait out a big loss...like I did in 2008. I lost about 34% in 2008...and was the highest return in 2009 because I refused to lock in a loss and left it alone...all the while buying more shares.
One BIG mistake I made early on was to allow my competitive nature dictate moves...some of the biggest mistakes I have made were motivated out of a desire to earn a coffee mug. I had to remind myself that money someone else makes is not money out of my pocket.
Finally a piece of advice: if someone on the board is kicking butt and not posting strategy, send them a message asking them to do so. I didn't post for years because I had no confidence in what I was doing and didn't want to lead others of a cliff.
JTH
Well-known member
Wouldn't it suck if I bought at the top of this wave? You clearly made the best 1-day play of the year, at this point everything else would be sloppy seconds. I yield the floor to the Transports...
View attachment 14574
BigJohn
Member
I may stay Oliver Stone-esque for the remainder of 2011. I think the rest of this weeks is sideways. I think we are looking at a "sell the news" set up on the debt ceiling circus; I think dumb money will flood in after whatever "deal" is announced, and then I think the stock funds will take it in the shorts. With a new IFT in my holster, waiting for a nice drop in early August sounds like a decent game plan...
BigJohn
BigJohn
JTH
Well-known member
I've heard some simular arguments proposing these are the highs and it ain't gonna get no better. I have no problem sitting out the year in the G-Fund, but I have high expectations I would love to tap out a 30% year. If it is as you say, then I may have to go into sniper mode. OBTW I should have followed my gut and taken the 18 Jul entry with the quick exit.
BigJohn
Member
Next week should be fascinating...
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/07/28/major-sullivan-ballous-letter-to-wife-sarah/
What a remarkable letter...not only in the sentiment to his wife and family, but his support of our country.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/07/28/major-sullivan-ballous-letter-to-wife-sarah/
What a remarkable letter...not only in the sentiment to his wife and family, but his support of our country.
BigJohn
Member
I am going to butcher this, so stay with me and correct me when I a$$ this up. Back in the day I liked to play a quick I fund move hoping to catch a +FV. The idea: if the US Markets have a good morning, the thought is that if it is a big enough day...that the overseas markets will follow suit. Enter Barclays: at times only known to them, they step in and play with the share price to keep too many people from cashing in as I described. What brought this to mind tonight is watching the overseas markets move higher on the debt deal announcement, and thinking that tomorrow the US markets MUST move likewise. Wouldn't this sequence of events almost guarantee a second day bounce in the foreign markets...assuming a deal is consumated and that the US Markets boom tomorrow?
350Z and others used to work wonders tracking the I fund and FV's...I hope others are around that have a good feel for it and will opine. I would hate to burn my one IFT for August on the first day of the month...but it is something I am thinking about.
350Z and others used to work wonders tracking the I fund and FV's...I hope others are around that have a good feel for it and will opine. I would hate to burn my one IFT for August on the first day of the month...but it is something I am thinking about.
Holden_Caufield
Member
per the strategy you outlined above, i was expecting you'd wait for a massive down day (1 percent or more) before jumping in.
BigJohn
Member
I will wait it out and stick to my 1% gameplan...the FV play used to be on of my favorites and it was an interesting idea.
