5/29/12
Stocks slipped on Friday on very light, pre-holiday volume. The Dow lost 75-points on the day but it was the first positive week for stock in May.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.22%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.04%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.27%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.04%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.004%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 has managed to stay above the 200-day EMA for a 5th straight day. That is usually good enough confirmation for me, but the pre-holiday action makes it less convincing and we're likely to get a better idea of what this market wants to do this week - post-holiday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The S&P chart has created a bear flag so the battle between a bearish flag and trying to form a bottom here near support at the 200-day EMA, will be in full force this week and we'll find out if last week's rally was for real.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The indicators are still leaning toward being bullish although some have moved back to neutral. The NYSE overbought / oversold indicator is back to neutral so this will be another test. Weak markets don't tend to get too overbought before reversing back down so we'll see if the bulls have any strength left.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This indicator from sentimenTrader.com measures investor risk appetite. Here's how they describe it: "This measure takes three separate indicators of risk appetite as compiled by several institutional firms.
"They look at market movements in credit spreads, equity and foreign exchange volatility, gold prices and sector relative performance (such as between defensive sectors like utilities and economically sensitive sectors like financials).
"The indicators are the Citigroup Macro Risk Index, the Westpac Risk Aversion Index and the UBS G10 Carry Risk Index Plus.
"We combined and normalized them into a single index. As the index rises, it means that investors are becoming more and more risk-averse. An index reading of 1.0 would mean that a broad cross-section of market participants are the most risk-averse possible."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It looks encouraging like many of the sentiment indicators and surveys so again it will be the indicator against the charts.
Seasonality gets better after today as the last 2 trading days in May have a strong positive bias as does the first week in June. After that it goes back to just neutral.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks slipped on Friday on very light, pre-holiday volume. The Dow lost 75-points on the day but it was the first positive week for stock in May.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.22%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.04%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.27%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.04%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.004%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 has managed to stay above the 200-day EMA for a 5th straight day. That is usually good enough confirmation for me, but the pre-holiday action makes it less convincing and we're likely to get a better idea of what this market wants to do this week - post-holiday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The S&P chart has created a bear flag so the battle between a bearish flag and trying to form a bottom here near support at the 200-day EMA, will be in full force this week and we'll find out if last week's rally was for real.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The indicators are still leaning toward being bullish although some have moved back to neutral. The NYSE overbought / oversold indicator is back to neutral so this will be another test. Weak markets don't tend to get too overbought before reversing back down so we'll see if the bulls have any strength left.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This indicator from sentimenTrader.com measures investor risk appetite. Here's how they describe it: "This measure takes three separate indicators of risk appetite as compiled by several institutional firms.
"They look at market movements in credit spreads, equity and foreign exchange volatility, gold prices and sector relative performance (such as between defensive sectors like utilities and economically sensitive sectors like financials).
"The indicators are the Citigroup Macro Risk Index, the Westpac Risk Aversion Index and the UBS G10 Carry Risk Index Plus.
"We combined and normalized them into a single index. As the index rises, it means that investors are becoming more and more risk-averse. An index reading of 1.0 would mean that a broad cross-section of market participants are the most risk-averse possible."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It looks encouraging like many of the sentiment indicators and surveys so again it will be the indicator against the charts.
Seasonality gets better after today as the last 2 trading days in May have a strong positive bias as does the first week in June. After that it goes back to just neutral.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
