Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

What to Do With a “Failed” Buy Signal​

The buy signal was a bust. Oddly enough, though, that’s bullish.

Let me explain…

Last Friday, I boasted about the success of NYSE Summation Index (NYSI) buy signals. All seven of the previous signals since the start of 2024 led to immediate stock market rallies. So, I suggested readers should put money to work following last week’s NYSI buy signal.

That signal failed on Friday when the NYSI closed back below its 9-day EMA. Here’s the updated chart…

All of this is to suggest that no matter how ugly it may get early this week, buying into the decline will likely prove profitable in the weeks ahead – especially if we see extremely oversold conditions on the daily indicators.

Best regards and good trading,

Signature
 

Attachments

  • $DWCPF (3).png
    $DWCPF (3).png
    185.6 KB · Views: 38
Last edited:
Small Caps: IWM/VTWO - Long some shares of VTWO for tomorrow's tariff news. We shall see how it plays out, and this is a small position. I sold everything during yesterday's rip. I continue to be in the BTD sell the RIPs mode. For now, I'm mainly day trading.

I will add a few more shares of VTWO "IF" we move lower into the close.
 

Attachments

  • IWM.png
    IWM.png
    106.9 KB · Views: 6
Last edited:
VIX moving lower into the close: I have a small position going into tomorrows tariff talk.... You can bet some in Trump's circle know what is going to happen tomorrow, and are probably trading it.

Daily small cap chart after the close: It sure looks like we are in the process of bottoming. We shall what tomorrow brings! Hmmm.... Tariff talk happens after the stock market closes. 4 pm ET.
 

Attachments

  • IWM (1).png
    IWM (1).png
    107.2 KB · Views: 6
Last edited:
IWM monthly: Testing the 50 month MA. Month 5 of lower highers...... We shall see what the rest of the week brings.

S Fund monthly: So far, holding above the 20 month MA. The index is not so oversold based on the monthly data.... However, it remains below the 2021 high.

The VIX is moving higher in early trading as we all wait for the tariff news.

So far a nice bounce in early trading. So there is the news from Trump after the market closes, and then we wait to see if there are counter-tariffs.
 

Attachments

  • IWM (3).png
    IWM (3).png
    85 KB · Views: 6
  • $DWCPF (4).png
    $DWCPF (4).png
    200.9 KB · Views: 6
Last edited:
Daily chart of indexes I'll be looking to trade again tomorrow: I'm still only day-trading.... That means selling all positions before the close. For those that held, maybe a bounce is coming....

Flat going into tomorrow. I placed limit orders to buy MGK under 300.00. Not sure it will get there..... We shall see if buyers come in during early trading. The futures are well off their lows, but are very low. It's the close tomorrow I'll be watching...

Good luck to all trading this market..... A big move lower for the dollar!

 

Attachments

  • IWM (5).png
    IWM (5).png
    123 KB · Views: 5
  • IWM (5).png
    IWM (5).png
    123 KB · Views: 5
Last edited:
Daily chart: We shall see how the rest of the week goes...

I bought the dip for a trade....
 

Attachments

  • $DWCPF (5).png
    $DWCPF (5).png
    184.8 KB · Views: 11
  • IWM (6).png
    IWM (6).png
    123.1 KB · Views: 11
Monthly chart: A move into the YCL and a tag of the 50 month? We shall see.....

SPX remains above the 20 month MA.

However, the IWM has moved below the 50 month MA.
 

Attachments

  • $SPX (3).png
    $SPX (3).png
    176.3 KB · Views: 6
  • IWM (1).png
    IWM (1).png
    66.9 KB · Views: 5
Last edited:

Worse Case Scenario​

April 3, 2025

Stocks dropped 4.84% on Thursday. Thursday was only day 15 of a failed daily cycle. Stocks could trend lower for another 2 – 3 weeks to get in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the lower daily cycle band indicates a continuation of its daily downtrend and signals a cycle band sell signal.
 

Attachments

  • a.png
    a.png
    21.9 KB · Views: 7
S Fund daily: Another gap down, and Cramer just mentioned that he is worried about a 1987 crash on Monday. China and others hitting us back hard.

Buying some shares at Vanguard this morning.
 

Attachments

  • $DWCPF (6).png
    $DWCPF (6).png
    181.1 KB · Views: 10
Last edited:
We shall see..... Jeff was talking about the 5400 level on the SPX. The SPX undercut the 5400 level this morning.

Here’s Why Most Folks Struggle to Make Money in the Market

Jeff Clark | Apr 4, 2025 | Market Minute
Traders who have been waiting for a decent pullback can put money to work.
Continue Reading

The Makings for a Bottom​

The S&P 500 is approaching the 5400 support level. It has made a lower low for this decline phase. But, the momentum indicators at the bottom of the chart are holding above their March lows. This "positive divergence" is an early warning sign of an impending reversal.

The VIX options are also suggesting a lower VIX is more probable in the days ahead than a higher VIX. VIX put options expiring next Wednesday, and the following week, are significantly more expensive than the equivalent call options.

This condition often foreshadows a lower VIX in the days ahead. And, a lower VIX usually goes along with a higher stock market.

So, we have the makings for a bottom.

The closer we get to 5400, the better the risk/reward setup for bullish trades.

 
Last edited:
NVDA daily: A nice bounce off the lows.... We shall see how we close. LOL.... It looks like Fake News caused a rip...
 

Attachments

  • a.png
    a.png
    67.5 KB · Views: 15
Last edited:
IWM daily: Testing the lows, a higher low, or a lower low?
 

Attachments

  • IWM (3).png
    IWM (3).png
    117.3 KB · Views: 13
Last edited:
Another thing to add to the wall of worry!

Fed Preps $2T Bailout as Hedge Fund Trade Implodes​

ITM Trading's Photo

by ITM Trading

While the media focuses on surface-level distractions, a deeper financial crisis is accelerating: the collapse of a $1 trillion+ leveraged trade in the U.S. Treasury market.

ITM Trading’s Taylor Kenney breaks down how hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium—leveraged up to 10:1—are being forced to unwind risky trades that once seemed safe. But as volatility spikes and liquidity vanishes, Treasuries are being dumped en masse, sending yields soaring and swap spreads collapsing.

The Fed now faces a brutal choice:

  • Print $2 trillion to bail out Wall Street
  • Or risk a complete breakdown in the Treasury market, the backbone of global finance
This isn’t just a hedge fund issue. With banks being forced to absorb toxic debt and depositor funds already at risk under bail-in policies, your 401(k), savings, and retirement security may be next in line.

Watch the full breakdown and see why this could be March 2020 all over again—only bigger.

 
SPX daily: Trading the daily charts.... Above average odds the SPX moves back to the 200 day MA in the days ahead. We shall see how it plays out.

Building a short position for GDXJ above $62.00ish. I bought some today. Remains stretched above the 10 day MA, and the odds for a dollar bounce have increased greatly.
 

Attachments

  • spx.png
    spx.png
    189.1 KB · Views: 10
  • GDXJ.png
    GDXJ.png
    125.4 KB · Views: 9
Hey Robo, have you been able to make the moves that you've made in the Autotracker in the TSP? Some have been saying they are not able to make those partial moves into the G-fund after #2, which is troublesome. Thanks.
 
"Some have been saying they are not able to make those partial moves into the G-fund after #2, which is troublesome."

My son is a GS 13 at DOD, and he asked me to give him recommendations for making moves in his TSP account this year. Since it's his account I remain very conservative when recommending trades to him, and only make big recommendations during extremes. I mainly trade at Vanguard these days. I did try and trade using my TSP for many years as you know, but I no longer have an account. That was the reason I signed up for one of your services, to get some extra insight before making recommendations to make moves in his TSP account. I'm not sure he made the moves as posted, but his plan was to scale out the way I recommended it. He was trying to get back to even after buying a tad early during this beat down. The last time I talked to him he told me he had unlimited moves back into the G Fund, and I said ok. I will talk with him tomorrow and see if he made the move, and how much. Not sure if he went 100% back into G Fund or scaled out of the S Fund like I recommended. I told him I thought the S Fund could still grind higher. I also told him just because I recommend 100% he should move what he thinks, but 100% recommendation means, that my daily data indicates we are hitting an extreme, and it's time to BTD based on those daily charts.

I will let you know.

The S Fund remains - hold long positions.

I thought it remained this way -

Fund transfers, along with reallocations (previously called “interfund transfers”), are limited to two transactions each month. The only exception is that there are no limits on fund transfers and reallocations if you're moving money into the TSP G Fund.Mar 11, 2025

This is the way it has been for sometime.

We shall see if it changed and when.
 

Attachments

  • $DWCPF (10).png
    $DWCPF (10).png
    177.4 KB · Views: 4
Last edited:
Back
Top