Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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What to Do With a “Failed” Buy Signal​

The buy signal was a bust. Oddly enough, though, that’s bullish.

Let me explain…

Last Friday, I boasted about the success of NYSE Summation Index (NYSI) buy signals. All seven of the previous signals since the start of 2024 led to immediate stock market rallies. So, I suggested readers should put money to work following last week’s NYSI buy signal.

That signal failed on Friday when the NYSI closed back below its 9-day EMA. Here’s the updated chart…

All of this is to suggest that no matter how ugly it may get early this week, buying into the decline will likely prove profitable in the weeks ahead – especially if we see extremely oversold conditions on the daily indicators.

Best regards and good trading,

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Small Caps: IWM/VTWO - Long some shares of VTWO for tomorrow's tariff news. We shall see how it plays out, and this is a small position. I sold everything during yesterday's rip. I continue to be in the BTD sell the RIPs mode. For now, I'm mainly day trading.

I will add a few more shares of VTWO "IF" we move lower into the close.
 

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VIX moving lower into the close: I have a small position going into tomorrows tariff talk.... You can bet some in Trump's circle know what is going to happen tomorrow, and are probably trading it.

Daily small cap chart after the close: It sure looks like we are in the process of bottoming. We shall what tomorrow brings! Hmmm.... Tariff talk happens after the stock market closes. 4 pm ET.
 

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IWM monthly: Testing the 50 month MA. Month 5 of lower highers...... We shall see what the rest of the week brings.

S Fund monthly: So far, holding above the 20 month MA. The index is not so oversold based on the monthly data.... However, it remains below the 2021 high.

The VIX is moving higher in early trading as we all wait for the tariff news.

So far a nice bounce in early trading. So there is the news from Trump after the market closes, and then we wait to see if there are counter-tariffs.
 

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Daily chart of indexes I'll be looking to trade again tomorrow: I'm still only day-trading.... That means selling all positions before the close. For those that held, maybe a bounce is coming....

Flat going into tomorrow. I placed limit orders to buy MGK under 300.00. Not sure it will get there..... We shall see if buyers come in during early trading. The futures are well off their lows, but are very low. It's the close tomorrow I'll be watching...

Good luck to all trading this market..... A big move lower for the dollar!

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Daily chart: We shall see how the rest of the week goes...

I bought the dip for a trade....
 

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Monthly chart: A move into the YCL and a tag of the 50 month? We shall see.....

SPX remains above the 20 month MA.

However, the IWM has moved below the 50 month MA.
 

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Worse Case Scenario​

April 3, 2025

Stocks dropped 4.84% on Thursday. Thursday was only day 15 of a failed daily cycle. Stocks could trend lower for another 2 – 3 weeks to get in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the lower daily cycle band indicates a continuation of its daily downtrend and signals a cycle band sell signal.
likesmoneycycletrading.blog

Worse Case Scenario

Prior to Trump’s speech, markets were expecting a 10% tariff across the board – -which did not happen. Stocks broke below the day 41 low on Monday but formed a bullish reversal. It look…
likesmoneycycletrading.blog likesmoneycycletrading.blog
 

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S Fund daily: Another gap down, and Cramer just mentioned that he is worried about a 1987 crash on Monday. China and others hitting us back hard.

Buying some shares at Vanguard this morning.
 

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We shall see..... Jeff was talking about the 5400 level on the SPX. The SPX undercut the 5400 level this morning.

Here’s Why Most Folks Struggle to Make Money in the Market​

Jeff Clark | Apr 4, 2025 | Market Minute
Traders who have been waiting for a decent pullback can put money to work.
Continue Reading

The Makings for a Bottom​

The S&P 500 is approaching the 5400 support level. It has made a lower low for this decline phase. But, the momentum indicators at the bottom of the chart are holding above their March lows. This "positive divergence" is an early warning sign of an impending reversal.

The VIX options are also suggesting a lower VIX is more probable in the days ahead than a higher VIX. VIX put options expiring next Wednesday, and the following week, are significantly more expensive than the equivalent call options.

This condition often foreshadows a lower VIX in the days ahead. And, a lower VIX usually goes along with a higher stock market.

So, we have the makings for a bottom.

The closer we get to 5400, the better the risk/reward setup for bullish trades.

 
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NVDA daily: A nice bounce off the lows.... We shall see how we close. LOL.... It looks like Fake News caused a rip...
 

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IWM daily: Testing the lows, a higher low, or a lower low?
 

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Another thing to add to the wall of worry!

Fed Preps $2T Bailout as Hedge Fund Trade Implodes​

ITM Trading's Photo

by ITM Trading

While the media focuses on surface-level distractions, a deeper financial crisis is accelerating: the collapse of a $1 trillion+ leveraged trade in the U.S. Treasury market.

ITM Trading’s Taylor Kenney breaks down how hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium—leveraged up to 10:1—are being forced to unwind risky trades that once seemed safe. But as volatility spikes and liquidity vanishes, Treasuries are being dumped en masse, sending yields soaring and swap spreads collapsing.

The Fed now faces a brutal choice:

  • Print $2 trillion to bail out Wall Street
  • Or risk a complete breakdown in the Treasury market, the backbone of global finance
This isn’t just a hedge fund issue. With banks being forced to absorb toxic debt and depositor funds already at risk under bail-in policies, your 401(k), savings, and retirement security may be next in line.

Watch the full breakdown and see why this could be March 2020 all over again—only bigger.

Fed Preps $2T Bailout as Hedge Fund Trade Implodes | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
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