Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Sort by newest Sort by date
My current comments..... I remain flat at Vanguard (VXF - Risk Management)

https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?/topic/172291-going-short-friday-on-gap-up/page-2

Posted Today, 12:38 PM

Monday is day 38 of my ( MT warning indicators). I currently use 4 data points. It's only a warning indicator, but has a 100% success rate. It's not "if" - it's when during the current extreme will the market pullback. It's not a crash indicator....

However, (NOT QE) Is a game changer for now.... See link below.....


I don't try and pick tops..... I trade the trend no matter how big the bubble gets. That is why I'm flat in my Vanguard account ( Risk/Reward), but trading both ways in other accounts....



I wait for a VXX buy signal on the 2 hour chart, and a VXF sell before making any more trades.....


Bottom line: The trend remains up, but I remain flat at Vanguard. I posted I was trading TNA and day-trading VXX last week for those that only read some of my posts. I don't normally hold over the weekends..... One tweet can wipe out to many of your gains.....


My 2 hour trading chart below..... Watching the VXX as it continues down after a short bounce.......


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=120&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p00376733573&a=703005368


Daily


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p40697347350&a=706677226



The daily chart and it's day 38 Monday for the warning indicator. I do use cycles too for trading, but the trend is always the bottom line indicator for me.


Stocks delivered mixed signals as they broke out to new highs.


Stocks printed a very mild daily cycle low on day 42. Stocks have since regained the 10 day MA and broke out to new highs. However there are bearish divergences that are beginning to develop on the oscillators, which often precede a daily cycle decline. A swing high accompanied by a break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

https://likesmoneycy...report-preview/



"The Fed revealed silently yesterday that they are injecting half a trillion dollars into the financial system in order to avoid a cash crunch into year-end and spiking repo rates. In other words, the Fed put is strong and alive. We are basically just waiting for the Fed to increase its monetary operations to coupons which means real QE. At the same time, other central banks are also easing pushing down rates improving the spread between fixed income and equities, which means equities look more attractive as long as the economy doesn’t go into recession."



US Equity Valuations Creep Into Dot-Com Bubble Territory For The First Time In 20 Years


Print
Maximum support for equities but watch those G7 rates

The last 24 hours have sent global equities higher and if this continue until end of month we will see US equity valuation creep into dot-com bubble territory for the first time in 20 years.

https://www.zerohedg...t-time-20-years



Have a nice weekend - Bulls and Bears I trade what is happening, not what I think will happen.....

The trend remains up!

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


Edited by robo, Today, 12:46 PM.

" “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
 
Last edited:
Some more comments about Gamma...

Option expiration is a timestamp where hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake. Based upon the settlement markets, profit is booked and risk is purged. All options bets and hedges on the books will settle, roll over, close or expire worthless on the op-ex timestamp. My work shows the repeatability of a few different dynamics, which include: 1) the mean reversion of market price prior towards delta neutral on or before op-ex, and 2) forced selling and/or buying following after a spike in market gamma.

https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?/topic/172302-the-flatlines-say/

Day 40 into my daily warning pattern. The last one was 26 before we had a pullback..... The data is "NOT" a crash indicator. I use it only for risk Management and that is why I'm flat VXF at Vanguard after a very nice daily cycle.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p36699250268&a=707467302

Weekly

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14613352103&a=705911168
 
Watch out for the GAMMA!

Will The Last 2-Weeks Of 2019 Be The Inverse of 2018?
Written by Erik Lytikainen | Dec 18, 2019

Every professional investor knows that month-ending, quarter-ending and year-ending timestamps are important. Throughout the year, positions are hedged against these timestamps, and as a result, the year-ending option expirations almost always have the highest open interest. Generally, the higher the open interest the greater the volatility and financial risk.

Last December, in and around the final option expiration of the year, the S&P 500 fell by nearly 300 points. This dramatic decline coincided with a spike in market gamma as shown below. It is my view that this decline was furthered by forced selling by the put sellers who needed to sell the S&P 500 index to cut their losses.

As we approach this year and the S&P 500 continues to grind higher, we may be facing the inverse of last year. Call sellers are beginning to feel more pain, as evidenced by a first-time spike in Forecast Gamma Neutral in my December 17th report. While I am not saying that stocks will melt up through the remainder of the year, the possibility of that scenario playing out is looking more likely. The chart below shows the relationship between the cash value in the SPX and the metric that I call Gamma Neutral.

SPX Value versus Prompt-Month Gamma Neutral

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/will-the-last-2-weeks-of-2019-be-the-inverse-of-2018/
 
What's A 'Gamma Flip' (And Why Should You Care)
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2019 - 10:15


Authored by Thorsten Wegener via MacroHive.com,

There is a new buzzword in town: ‘Gamma Flip’. It is used to explain (due to a lack of any sane explanation for current market behaviour) why the S&P seems stuck at practically all-time highs and what might happen if things turn bad. In fact, it is so hot that even TV pundits are elaborating on its potential advantages and dangers. But what exactly is it?

The Flip
The expression ‘gamma flip’ simply describes the point where long gamma positions of those who use them turn into short gamma positions for those who actually would have a need to use them, but don’t have them. In other words, it’s the point in the market where you want to step back and graciously wait until the forces of good and evil have battled it out and more sane explanations like macro factors, corporate earnings, or illusive trade deals make the headlines again. That’s it. That’s the simple explanation.

What I haven’t told you is that gamma also reacts in mysterious ways in relation to time, volatility, and distance to spot markets. But that must wait for another column. In the meantime, the gamma flip is supposed to happen at levels of roughly 3070 points in the S&P. Of course, it might just slowly fade away while we see new highs. If you read this column at some future date, we will know what has happened.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whats-gamma-flip-and-why-should-you-care
 
Is that it or is there more? Look at the SKEW go, go, go.... I remain flat and please pass the popcorn....


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=15&id=p50070671593&a=706347501



The Quad Witch Glitch: Here's Why Stocks Soared Into This Morning's Open


In case you wondered why markets exploded higher in the pre-open, here's a simple answer.

Thanks to the huge weight of gamma in options contracts tied to the December expiration futures contract, that contract literally exploded higher by 10 S&P points in the 10 minutes before the cash market open (no there was no news or macro catalyst at all), as market-makers were forced to buy into the rip to balance their books as time-value collapsed.

https://www.zerohedg...d-mornings-open
 
The trend remains up, but with MORE extremes.... I remain flat with my retirement funds, but was trading TNA last week. I'm looking for a move down next week, but will wait before going short. I will need to see a VXF sell signal and a VXX buy signal. So I wait as I still don't have one.

(NOT QE has been a real game changer)

New York Fed Plans to Throw $2.93 Trillion at Wall Street’s Trading Houses Over Next Month as New York Times Remains Silent

Last Thursday, December 12, the New York Fed announced that over the next month it would shower the trading houses (primary dealers) on Wall Street with a total of $2.93 trillion in short-term loans. The money is for a Wall Street liquidity crisis that has yet to be explained in credible terms to the American people and yet the New York Times does not appear to have an investigative reporter assigned to investigate what’s really going on just 11 years after those same trading houses blew themselves up in the biggest financial crash since the Great Depression and took the U.S. economy along for the ride.

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019...-next-month-as-new-york-times-remains-silent/

The VXX chart. Amazing move for the SKEW and look at VXX.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=15&id=p95156322189&a=706347501


Daily trend trading data remains up or hold long positions.... I'm flat based on the risk/reward data

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p36699250268&a=705911255
 
TFTF
49
Prelude to Crisis
BY JOHN MAULDIN DECEMBER 20, 2019

The Fed now has also become a big part of the monetization process via its purchases of T-bills which also drives banks into buying notes. The Fed's balance sheet is now $335b higher than it was in September at $4.095 trillion. Again, however the Fed wants to define what it's doing, market participants view this as QE4 with all the asset price inflation that comes along with QE programs.

It will be real interesting to see what happens in 2020 to the repo market when the Fed tries to end its injections and how markets respond when its balance sheet stops increasing in size. It's so easy to get involved and so difficult to leave.

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/prelude-to-crisis
 
Yield Curve chart
Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader

2h

Yield curve updated.
Gray areas = recessions

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1209444323256918016/photo/1

LT - Fed rate cut cycle data. Some think it will be different this time. We shall see..... VST trading JNUG again today.

I still believe (NOT QE has changed the game some..... so we shall see for how long. (Note IWM on my LT data chart)

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1998-01-24&id=p05787623039&a=692181751




SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
16h
This is all kinds of misleading, but before getting too excited about the Nasdaq's run of 8 straight record closes, it's at least worth tapping the brakes and noting the last time it happened.
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader



James DePorre
@RevShark
1h
Christmas Eve 2019 Is the Mirror Image of 2018
While the indices are quite extended, there are no great emotional excesses like last year; if anything, there is complacency.

https://twitter.com/RevShark

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
 
Last edited:
Here’s a warning for investors who are tempted by this year-end rally for stocks

“This is the time to be taking profits, not adding new money. Without a doubt, most of the people buying today will come to regret that decision over the next few weeks as prices dip back under these levels,” writes popular financial blogger Jani Ziedins of Cracked Market. While he says that a pullback may not occur until February.
Click to expand...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...ar-run-up-for-stocks-2019-12-27?mod=home-page
 
Still long VXX and TZA for a trade based on the 2 hour chart. Added another VXX tranche in the premarket.....

Waiting to see how it plays out.... The VXX daily is now on a buy signal too. Whipsaw? We shall see.....
2 hour.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=120&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p75005683722&a=703005368

Daily.... The SPY remains on a hold long positions, but I'm flat VXF. VXF just went to a sell today, ( see trend trading chart) but will it be a whipsaw. BTFDers coming in already. I use the closing prices anyway. url]https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p29393550032&a=702774295[/url]

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p88186320936&a=702774295

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=15&id=p15209924541&a=709231670

Good Trading!

SevenSentinels

LOLR Sell Signal Extrapolates Now For 10 AM

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Show less
 
Last edited:
One Tier and Rubble Down Below


John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

January 2020

We forget.

One of the striking things about bull markets is that they often end in confident exuberance, while simultaneously deteriorating from the inside. We’ve certainly observed this sort of selectivity during the past year. The market advance in 2019 fully recovered the market losses of late-2018, fueled by a wholesale reversal of Fed policy, hopes for a “phase one” trade deal, and as noted below, a bit of confusion about what actually constitutes “quantitative easing.”


Yet for all the bullish exuberance, speculative enthusiasm, and fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) we’ve observed among investors in recent weeks, and indeed, in the past two years, the fact is that a pullback of just 11% in the S&P 500 would place the total return of the S&P 500 Index behind the return on Treasury bills since the January 26, 2018 market high. Given current overextended extremes, the entire gain of the S&P 500 since early-2018 could be given up in a handful of trading sessions.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc191230/
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top