Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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More extremes..... However, the trend remains UP! I trade VXF only when long.... ( S Fund) How can you short a market trending up like this one? Many have tried..... You can pick up some beer money VST trading, but no matter how over priced it becomes the trend remains up. Don't fight the Feds.... I remain in cash based on the Risk/Reward data I use for trading..... What a show!

Daily - Up


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p19686409003&a=714731912


Weekly - Up

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70697748048&a=714729663

Monthly - Up


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1995-01-24&id=p95250459407&a=713480033





SevenSentinels
‏

@SevenSentinels
8h8 hours ago

The Right Side of The Bookshelf Producing New Record Sentiment Extremes

Weekly Article at 4 PM Monday, Martin Luther King Day, 1-20-2020

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
 
Well, I know the LOLR is down and several other MT indicators are giving out warning signals.


SevenSentinels

LOLR Down As Markets Back & Fill Intra-Day

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

However, the closing prices of the SPY, VXF, IWM, and the SOX ( indexes a track for my trading system) all closed "ABOVE" their 10 DMAs again today. That means remain long for my trend trading system. MT positions are for funds like TSP were you have limited moves, I would need to see a move below the 20 DMA and the MACD turning down. I don't guess at the turns. I trade what is happening using my indicators and not what I think will happen. The answer is yes? I do get whipsawed sometimes, but with unlimited moves at Vanguard it's easy to trade the daily..... I'm looking for the big runs that stay above the 10 DMA for weeks....

(Note that the 20 DMA for VXF was only been breached once since they started not QE, and it still did not produce a sell signal....) A very nice trending move and I use the daily closing prices for trend trading.



Bottom Line: The trend remains up, with the LOLR heading down...... I trade the 10 DMA since I can move in and out as often as I want at Vanguard using VXF.

LOL..... someday it will correct...MAYBE! Still trading some VXX.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p67703651043&a=714731912
 
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It's the MT data that I'm watching - ROBO/Rydex/Dumb/Smart money/MT Risk Levels and many more. With that said the daily, weekly, and monthly trend remains up!

In 2007 it took 14 months for IWM to get back to it's all time high. It took 17 months this time. Is a bear market getting closer? It depends on whom you ask. See the blue line on my LT data chart and the IWM tops.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=14&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89001590150&a=713914907


SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader

23h
If you think the coast is clear because the CNN Fear & Greed model ticked down a few points, that's not really how things work.

Before *most* major pullbacks, sentiment hits an optimistic extreme, then prices rise again but with less enthusiasm.

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
 
Short interest near all time low, MT risk levels remain at extreme levels, talk of war in the middle east, the Trump show on TV, The New China Bug, etc....etc..... Waiting on the Fed to save the day....

Daily = cash position

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p69909718496&a=714731912

Weekly = Hold Long positions....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70697748048&a=714729663

Monthly = Hold Long positions...

Note the 2007 IWM topping pattern and the current one on my monthly trend trading chart. It better be different this time or the top has completed for the yearly cycle and maybe this bull. However, with unlimited buying power anything is possible.... The monthly trend remains up.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=14&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94164510891&a=713914907
 
Correction
by likesmoneystudies

Two things that I am paying attention to is the RSI and the TSI. The RSI is oversold. When stocks are in the advancing stage of their intermediate cycle then RSI does not stay oversold for long, as witnessed in early December. So a quick rebound of the RSI will indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle advance. But the bearish TSI divergence is a concern. If RSI does not recover quickly that will point to stocks beginning their intermediate cycle decline.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2020/01/27/correction/

Weekly = Sell signal..... Fed to the rescue?

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70697748048&a=714729663


Monthly = Hold long positions (For LT investors not traders)

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=14&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94164510891&a=713914907
 
I use the 10 DMA too..... Watching XES and FCG for a possible value trade.....

Daily.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p55423145154&a=714731912

Not Out Of The Woods Yet

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 36, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s swing low and close above the upper daily cycle band signals a new daily cycle. And while Stocks did rebound off the 38 fib level and RSI has also turned higher — indicative of an intermediate cycle advance … we are not out of the woods yet. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA to label day 36 as the DCL.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2020/01/28/not-out-of-the-woods-yet-2/
 
Jeff Clark's Market Minute
This Signal Will Nail the Biggest Profits
By Jeff Clark
January 29, 2020

By Jeff Clark, editor, Market Minute

The Volatility Index (VIX) generated its first buy signal of 2020 yesterday.

Buy signals occur when the VIX closes above its upper Bollinger Band – indicating an extreme increase in volatility – and then closes back inside the bands. We’ve followed these signals plenty of times over the past few years, and they’ve proven to be quite profitable.

This time, though, I’m not buying it… at least not yet.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/

Daily = Remains in a cash position - Watching XES and FCG for a possible value trade

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p31894336657&a=714731912
 
I don't really care about all the projections I read. What I do care about is the trend and it's currently down. If we are starting to move into the YCL we still have a ways to go. However, I trade the trend and it's currently down.... Long TZA....


SevenSentinels Retweeted
Kujo
@Optionstr8dr
·
Jan 27
Must read. If you care about your 401k

SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
OPEN Weekly Article From January 26, 2020- If you read only One Seven Sentinels articles all year- THIS IS THE ONE!

Last Freebie of the season. Please have a look.

Occam's Razor

https://sevensentinels.com/occams-razor/
 
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Whatever They’re Doing, It’s Not “Investment



John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

February 2020

At the market open of Friday, January 24, our estimate of likely 12-year nominal total returns for a conventional passive investment portfolio (60% S&P 500, 30% Treasury bonds, 10% Treasury bills) fell to just 0.04% annually, below even the previous record of 0.34% set in August 1929. This extreme reflects the combination of record equity market valuations and depressed interest rates. That’s not an “equilibrium” situation. It’s a combination that joins insult with injury, creating weak prospects for the future returns of passive, diversified buy-and-hold strategies, across the board.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200130/
 
The trend remains up on all three time frames I track..... I trade VXF......

Daily - Long

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p75742069744&a=719492968

Weekly - Long

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67603151108&a=719491781

Monthly - Long

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=14&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08809568079&a=719491857



Enjoy the 3 day weekend..... I was out sick for a few weeks......



U.S. large-cap equity indices are hitting new all-time highs so frequently that the media are taking them for granted.


In 2020 we have had so many new all-time peaks for large-cap U.S. equity indices that the media greet these with a comment such as "another day, another new high" for the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. Meanwhile you hear nothing about most mid- and small-cap U.S. equity indices not achieving new all-time highs since August 31, 2018 or in some cases since January 26, 2018.


Investors have become so accustomed to these new all-time highs that they are repeatedly bidding up overnight indices above their closing prices and often creating the highest intraday levels outside of regular trading hours including February 13, 2020 at 10:02 p.m. Eastern Time. If the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had been trading the S&P would have touched 3388.59 while the Nasdaq would have reached 9762.85. During the next bear-market bottoming process we will probably get some of the lowest-priced trades outside of regular trading hours.

Kaplan

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
 
The trend is currently down for all the indexes I track..... When to BTFD?

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p93270123170&a=719492968

Make Good Choices

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

March 2020

The menu of passive investment choices is now the worst in history
When market valuations are reasonable or depressed, investors can expect that their willingness to take risk will be compensated by a satisfactory “risk premium” over the long-term. Conversely, when market valuations are elevated or extreme, investors put themselves in a position where the long-term compensation for taking risk becomes very thin.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200225/
 
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