Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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Mental note: Never use a physical stop on JNUG. When it hit 42 this morning, I put a stop in at 38.50, which seemed like a nice spot below possible short-term support, but within minutes they took it down and took out the stops. Now it will probably close at 44. :suspicious:

 
tsptalk said:
Mental note: Never use a physical stop on JNUG. When it hit 42 this morning, I put a stop in at 38.50, which seemed like a nice spot below possible short-term support, but within minutes they took it down and took out the stops. Now it will probably close at 44. :suspicious:

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I would compare it to riding a wild rampaging bull. You never know exactly where the next jump is gonna be, or when it's gonna happen.

Not that I'm a wild bull rider or anything... :blink:
 
MrJohnRoss said:
I would compare it to riding a wild rampaging bull. You never know exactly where the next jump is gonna be, or when it's gonna happen.

Not that I'm a wild bull rider or anything... :blink:
Click to expand...

I now track the Average True Range of each stock, filtering out the ones with too much price action
 
Friday Night Charts...Three Breakouts in the Precious Metals
By: Rambus Chartology | Sun, Mar 16, 2014

In my humble opinion you can spend every waking minute trying to figure out why is gold and and PM stocks going up. Is it because of inflation, deflation, copper, the stock markets, currencies , War or a hundred different reason's? If you just follow the price action and devote the time spent trying to find a reason for why, you will be way ahead of the game. You don't have to know the answer to the question everybody is trying to answer. It's irrelevant. The answer is right there in front of you if you take the time to understand what the chart is telling you. All the best...Rambus

Friday Night Charts...Three Breakouts in the Precious Metals | Rambus Chartology | Safehaven.com
 
Emotions…Be Honest with Yourself
Posted on March 11, 2014, 12:32 am by Rambus

I’m getting the feeling that some of you are in over your heads when it comes to the markets. Playing the stock markets is nothing more than psychological warfare. It’s all about emotions. When you put money and then leverage on the playing field many investors loose sight of the bigger picture. As soon as the markets don’t go their way they start thinking with emotions instead of what discipline they use to trade.

The HUI is just starting its fourth week in this congestion zone between 236 and 250 with many reversals taking place in that tight trading range. We don’t know 100% for sure if this is a consolidation pattern or some type of topping pattern that has been building out. Our discipline, Chartology, strongly suggests this is a consolidation pattern forming but there are no guarantees this is the case until we get confirmation one way or the other.

If this congestion area is wearing you out then you are way too leveraged and need to cut back on your position size. So far this has been just a mild 14 point trading range on the HUI that one should be able to cope with without getting all emotional wondering when the pain is going to end. Folks, this trading range is so small it doesn’t even show up on a weekly chart yet. How you’re coping with this little trading range should tell you of your own psychological makeup.

If you are having a hard time dealing with this trading range you really need to think about cutting the size of your positions so that you can think with a clear mind. If the HUI trades down to its 50 dma will you be able to hold on? If the answer is no then you really need to reduce your position size as soon as possible. Every trade doesn’t have to be a home run like so many think.

We have three different portfolios ranging from the Model Portfolio which is conservative. The Junior Portfolio which is a little more speculative and then the Kamikaze Portfolio which is the highest degree of speculation. The Kamikaze Portfolio equals high risk for high reward. Make sure you understand what that means. HIGH RISK – HIGH REWARD. Most investors don’t have the emotional capability to play in the Kamikaze Portfolio. Believe me there is nothing wrong with that. The Juniors are offering us a good lower risk and high reward opportunity if one can hang on through the draw downs. Then there is the Model Portfolio that will do very well if we are indeed entering the second leg of this secular bull market.

So, be honest with yourself and decide which is the best way for you, personally, to invest your hard earned money. Keep in mind this isn’t a child’s game we are play here. We are going up against the brightest minds in the world that want your money. They could care less if you loose every last penny to them. For them it’s like taking candy from a baby. The inexperienced get eaten alive before they even know what hit them. So please keep your leverage to a minimum and trade according to you own psychological makeup so you can stay in the game long enough to learn something. All the best…Rambis


The Finest in Technical Analysis and Realtime Market Commentary

Rambus Chartology for Subscribers | The Finest in Technical Analysis and Realtime Market Commentary.
 
This is special intraday update #1984a for Tuesday early afternoon, March 18, 2014.


I bought HDGE at 12.69 using 0.10% of my net worth, which I would rate as a 7 on a scale of 0 through 10. The next official rung in my ladder is at 12.49, but I strongly believe that the pattern of higher lows for VIX which has now been intact for more than a year since it bottomed at 11.05 on March 14, 2013 signals the existence of a severe U.S. equity bear market. The VIX bottom a year ago, which was its lowest point in more than six years, was analogous to its 9.39 deep bottom on December 15, 2006 which preceded the 2007-2009 equity bear market. In addition, inflows into U.S. equity index funds have soared in recent weeks while prices have remained essentially flat; this is how tops are typically formed. There are many other reasons to anticipate declines for U.S. equities which will likely intensify at some point in 2015. One advantage of owning HDGE is that, if you are a U.S. resident and you purchase it in a regular brokerage account, it will qualify for long-term capital gains if you hold it for at least one year and one day. I plan to keep HDGE probably for 2-1/2 years and maybe for three full years, and will likely continue to hold it even after I am already gradually accumulating shares of equity funds around late 2016 and/or early 2017.


GDXJ has continued the pattern it established when its bull market began on December 23, 2013, by recently correcting for the fourth time. The total percentage pullback in just about exactly two trading days was (46.00 - 41.11) / 46.00 or 10.63%, thereby almost matching its first two declines of 2014. An additional retreat is possible; regardless of what occurs in the short run, its uptrend remains intact and will continue probably until GDXJ and other funds of gold and silver mining shares surpass their 2012 peaks and revisit levels not seen since 2011. Among the most likely negative divergences of the first half of 2015 will be gold and some other commodities reaching new all-time highs, while silver bullion and mining shares--and eventually most emerging-market equities--are completing lower highs compared with their respective tops from April 2011.

True Contrarian
 
I bought the dip..... around 2000 shares of JNUG and around 500 shares of NUGT.

Trading the JNUG Rectangle...see chart below, and good luck if you are trading the miners as they are account killers if you are not careful!

http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/NUGT.png

http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/scnugt.png


A few of my orders below, but to many to list.....some of my limit orders at much lower prices didn't fill yet, and are still open.....It looks like a small bounce for now, but plenty of wild swings ahead.....Good trading, and don't get stopped out of your JNUG shares. If you continue to get stopped out don't buy JNUG...buy GDXJ and hold. I usually only short-term trade JNUG and NUGT, but I'm looking for 40.00 again before selling these shares. Take a position trade using GDX and GDXJ if you can't hold during these beatdowns/shakeouts of the crooks stealing your shares by running your stops. My limit orders at lower prices are in, and so I wait!

3/18/2014 8:16:03 AM ET JNUG Bought 200 JNUG @ $32.5 Executed
3/18/2014 8:25:36 AM ET JNUG Bought 200 JNUG @ $32.37 Executed
3/18/2014 8:17:33 AM ET JNUG Bought 100 JNUG @ $32.36 Executed

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=M&b=6&g=0&id=p54846683276&a=290636225

http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/gld1.png

2 of my paid services went to cash....sold or reduce miner positions, and 2 added.
 
tsptalk said:
Jeez, what a commitment. That's 1000th of his account?

To me, we should either invest and diversify, or if we choose to trade, have some conviction. This is a waste of time if you ask me.
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He has millions so who can say how much that is for sure, and he is diversified. He is currently around 90% invested in the sectors below.


From my largest to my smallest position, I currently own GDXJ, KOL, XME, SLX, REMX, GDX, COPX, SIL, GXG, GLDX, VGPMX, RSX, EWZ, SCIF, ECH, VNM, EPU, FCG, BGEIX, ZJG (Toronto), and PLTM.

http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

Also, he doesn't trade at all. Kaplan only takes longer-term positions for himself and the accounts he manages.
 
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This is update #1983 for Tuesday morning, March 18, 2014.


On December 23, 2013, GDXJ had bottomed at 28.82 and similar assets including GDX had slumped to their lowest levels since November 20, 2008. Since then, this subsector has experienced some of the greatest percentage gains of all asset classes--while periodically suffering rapid short-term pullbacks including the current one. Such behavior is typical of a strong bull market, in which declines tend to be especially sharp and sudden, and occur whenever the greatest number of momentum players and other "hot money" traders have recently once again jumped aboard the long side--only to be once again stopped out. It is likely that this kind of extended uptrend accompanied by rapid retreats will continue for roughly another year. Once we have a very different kind of movement where there are frequent early morning upward spikes followed by slow retreats, gold and silver mining shares will likely be completing their next topping patterns. This could occur perhaps one year from now. Meanwhile, one common characteristic will be swift recoveries from all corrections, so that traders who are repeatedly stopped out and want to participate again will be forced to buy at significantly higher prices.

True Contrarian
 
So I assume he buys a hedge position like this instead of selling one of his longer term holds. That makes some sense, but the size still is questionable.

It would be like owning an equal amount of every company in the S&P 500 , then shorting half of of a position in one of those 500 companies (1/1000).

I guess if you're managing other people's money you need to somewhat cautious, but more importantly give the impression that you are.

By the way, I bought some JNUG today also.
 
tsptalk said:
So I assume he buys a hedge position like this instead of selling one of his longer term holds. That makes some sense, but the size still is questionable.

It would be like owning an equal amount of every company in the S&P 500 , then shorting half of of a position in one of those 500 companies (1/1000).

I guess if you're managing other people's money you need to somewhat cautious, but more importantly give the impression that you are.

By the way, I bought some JNUG today also.
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Good luck to you on your JNUG trade, and I'll be adding shares if we go lower.....no stop for now.

Kaplan has written pages on the subject, but a few comments from him about hedging.

"Intelligent hedging is complicated. Instead of hedging outright, I usually attempt to create portfolios with a mix of assets which will behave somewhat independently from each other. As I will discuss in much more detail in my next update, the financial markets are so closely intertwined that truly uncorrelated assets don't actually exist. However, if you own funds which are at least somewhat different such as KOL, SLX, EWZ, and GDX, then at least some of the time one or more of these might be sufficiently depressed to be worth buying, while others will periodically surge higher as SLX did in the late autumn and attract sufficient insider selling to indicate that they should be sold. During the past two months I have been accumulating HDGE whenever it is below 13, because it will similarly tend to behave differently from the equity funds of commodity producers and emerging markets which dominate my portfolio. If you prefer to do more direct hedging, then your best bet is usually to sell qualified covered calls after thoroughly learning the rules and after becoming intimately familiar with the details of options trading. If you don't have the time or patience to do both, then do neither because incompetently hedging or making serious mistakes will cost you far more than you will make even with good timing. You need to achieve 140% from short-term capital gains to equal the same after-tax results as a 100% profit on a long-term position held for at least one year and one day. If you are a resident of a country other than the U.S. or Australia, then you are less likely to be burned tax-wise by a higher frequency of transactions, but more frequent trading often leads to more frequent trading mistakes. When any asset is in a strong rally where it is quadrupling as GDXJ will probably do from its 28.80 or 28.82 bottom from December 2013, then you don't want to get so fancy that you end up with worse results than someone who simply sits on the couch and does nothing. Many people prefer short-term trading because they don't emotionally want to suffer the pain of short-term adverse market movement, or they feel it is an insult to their macho image of themselves to not always be "doing something", rather than because it is really beneficial to their bottom line.

True Contrarian
 
I'm still adding shares in the after-market trading, but this trade is getting deep into the red. I will add my final 1000 shares tomorrow. My limit is 5000 shares, and I'm getting closer.

Good trading, and it looks like we might get the gap fill. I would say lots of stops were run today, and folks buying JNUG probably got a lesson the last two days about trading the gold miners using leverage.


3/19/2014 4:39:23 PM ET JNUG Bought 580 JNUG @ $27.23 Executed

http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/GDXJ.png

http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/NUGT.png

Do you remember this sell-off.....


12/23/2013 12/27/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 275 SHARES OF JNUG AT $12.85 ($7.00) $0.00 ($3,540.75) No
12/23/2013 12/27/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 100 SHARES OF JNUG AT $12.81 ($7.00) $0.00 ($1,288.00) No
12/23/2013 12/27/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 500 SHARES OF JNUG AT $12.88 ($7.00) $0.00 ($6,447.00) Yes
12/23/2013 12/27/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 300 SHARES OF JNUG AT $13.02 ($7.00) $0.00 ($3,913.00) Yes
12/23/2013 12/27/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 200 SHARES OF JNUG AT $13.02 ($7.00) $0.00 ($2,611.00) Yes
12/23/2013 12/27/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 200 SHARES OF JNUG AT $13.02 ($7.00) $0.00 ($2,611.00) No
12/23/2013 12/27/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 200 SHARES OF JNUG AT $13.07 ($7.00) $0.00 ($2,621.00) No
12/23/2013 12/27/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 100 SHARES OF JNUG AT $13.01 ($7.00) $0.00 ($1,308.00) No
12/23/2013 12/27/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 310 SHARES OF JNUG AT $13.10 ($7.00) $0.00 ($4,068.00) Yes
12/19/2013 12/24/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 90 SHARES OF JNUG AT $13.01 ($7.00) $0.00 ($1,177.90) No
12/19/2013 12/24/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 1000 SHARES OF JNUG AT $13.01 ($7.00) $0.00 ($13,017.00) Yes
12/19/2013 12/24/2013 JNUG BOUGHT 200 SHARES OF JNUG AT $13.10
 
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I think I came back to early from my time off from trading....I'm still adding, but you start thinking how low can it go. I'm a trapped Bull now, and the last 4 days of selling has been an account buster for some folks that trade the miners on margin. I read plenty of comments in chat rooms from other traders about how much money they lost the last few days. Rambus' stop for JNUG was 26.90 so I'll be hanging out at his site to see what he thinks.


Good trading, and I'll complete my buys today. My gains are sure taking a hit this week!

Small orders now.... waaaaay to many to list...some were single digits as retail traders are throwing in the towel.

3/20/2014 8:56:46 AM ET JNUG Bought 100 JNUG @ $25.6 Executed
3/20/2014 8:56:46 AM ET JNUG Bought 18 JNUG @ $25.6 Executed
3/20/2014 8:56:46 AM ET JNUG Bought 302 JNUG @ $25.6 Executed

I still have some Limit orders open at lower prices.


Looks like Rambus will be going to cash and putting on short positions soon....so much for this Bear Market Rally. I remain long for now, but with a lot less of my gains from the lows a few months ago.

Good trading.
 
March 21, 2014 3:16 am GMT


Place your bets, folks! Are the broad averages developing thrust for a rally to new record highs? Or is all their flailing around over the last three weeks a topping process meant to drive bulls and bears to distraction? I’m betting on the former, although at the rate things are going I may not get to collect until hell freezes over. From a technical standpoint, the performance of the S&Ps lately has been about as impressive as Barack Obama’s second term. Yesterday’s surge narrowly failed to surpass a significant peak to the left of it, just as the rally the day before had failed. One of these days the futures are going to close above one or more of the four peaks (see inset) that have been impeding their path to the Promised Land. It is then, perhaps, that we will be able to infer that the Mother of All Bull Traps awaits, beckoning like Circe from untold heights.

Trading Newsletter for Gold, Silver, Stocks and Mini Indexes
 
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