Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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I own positions in GDXJ, GFI, SBGL and FCX for gold miners and I value your suggestion on silver. My wife might enjoy SLV in her IRA.
 
My Mindylou adviser caught many the other day when they were in rocket mode. Inorder to really get wealthy you have to invest very serious money at these price levels. You would be competing with the hedge funds and subject to getting kilt on a whim - I'd be cautious at these levels. But it would appear biotech has a ways to go higher with all the liquidity that is tracking. I remember the internet days and the mucho pain that followed the bust - but good investing on earning dollars.
 
CrabClaw said:
What are you looking at for a USLV entry?
Click to expand...

TRI and Rambus both currently have long positions, and Rambus is adding today, but I'm not buying today...chasing. I still think we have more downside coming ( possible DCL) but both of those guys are very Bullish on Silver and think we should be adding ( see silver chart below for buys).

Rambus has also been adding JNUG and NUGT all day today, and thinks a Big move up is very close. My plan was to buy NUGT at the BT ( Under 40.00 a share), but that might not work out. I have bought USLV under 50.00 several times, but it just hasn't gone any where, and I wanted the funds to trade the miners day-trades. Maybe this time we will get the break-out for silver, and I will be flat...ha...It's happened to me more then once. It sure looks like I should have bought the pre-market. The dippers are sure buying today. I'm going to wait for now, and that might be a bad move.

http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/NUGT-BUY-45.52.png

http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USLV-BUY-50.90.png

Good trading.
 
Birchtree said:
My Mindylou adviser caught many the other day when they were in rocket mode. Inorder to really get wealthy you have to invest very serious money at these price levels. You would be competing with the hedge funds and subject to getting kilt on a whim - I'd be cautious at these levels. But it would appear biotech has a ways to go higher with all the liquidity that is tracking. I remember the internet days and the mucho pain that followed the bust - but good investing on earning dollars.
Click to expand...

I'll see where it'll take me, I love the action so far tho. I went all in on BIB in the beginning of the year and so far up 28% on that position. already better than my TSP did all last year ;)

Did have a little bit of a scare during the pullback (saw 20% gains go back to 5%), but i had to stick with my system and hold. And glad I did (so far :))
 
Birchtree said:
My Mindylou adviser caught many the other day when they were in rocket mode. Inorder to really get wealthy you have to invest very serious money at these price levels. You would be competing with the hedge funds and subject to getting kilt on a whim - I'd be cautious at these levels. But it would appear biotech has a ways to go higher with all the liquidity that is tracking. I remember the internet days and the mucho pain that followed the bust - but good investing on earning dollars.
Click to expand...

I agree with you about investing, and you have proven that it was the correct move this cycle. Kaplan is the same way when it comes to investing, but he just disagrees with you on owning the major stock indexes the next few years. His call for the next Bear could be incorrect, but he sure called the last one in 2008.
 
Birchtree said:
My Mindylou adviser caught many the other day when they were in rocket mode. Inorder to really get wealthy you have to invest very serious money at these price levels. You would be competing with the hedge funds and subject to getting kilt on a whim - I'd be cautious at these levels. But it would appear biotech has a ways to go higher with all the liquidity that is tracking. I remember the internet days and the mucho pain that followed the bust - but good investing on earning dollars.
Click to expand...

I know you disagree with Kaplan, but he continues to build a short-position....

(HDGE) Ranger Equity Bear ETF | AdvisorShares


Dear subscribers,


This is special intraday update #1973b for Thursday afternoon, February 13, 2014.


I bought HDGE at 12.89 using 0.10% of my net worth with the next rung in my ladder, which I would rate as a 7 on a scale of 0 through 10. HDGE can be used two ways: 1) for long-term capital gains with the idea of selling it in 2016, which would be ideal for non-retirement accounts; and 2) for relatively shorter-term trading to capitalize on the kinds of equity fluctuations which will be common throughout 2014 and probably into 2015. There are other ways to sell short over brief time periods which may be more profitable, but none of these other methods allows you to obtain a long-term capital gain which makes HDGE unique in this respect. The closest approximation would be buying deep-in-the-money LEAP puts, for which the bid-ask spreads are usually a high percentage of the value of each trade. For most short sales, even if you are short for more than a year, you have to pay taxes at the higher federal (and sometimes state) short-term capital gains rate.


There is little risk in owning HDGE if you have a basket of equities and equity funds. If HDGE continues to decline in price, you can keep buying it as your other assets mostly increase in value; if HDGE rallies, then it will partly offset your losses in various stocks. I plan to keep holding most of my HDGE even after I eventually begin to purchase various equity funds near the next bear-market bottom in 2016, in order to have an offsetting position throughout what will likely become a lengthy bottoming process.


In general, I like buying equity funds whenever the media are worried about "where the stock market will go next", and buying HDGE whenever the prevailing sentiment is "everything is on track for another good year for the stock market". That's why I've temporarily stopped buying my favorite funds of commodity producers and emerging-market equities, while I've been accumulating HDGE. After the next equity pullback becomes sufficiently severe to regenerate worries about "how much lower we're going to go", it will be timely to once again purchase the most oversold and undervalued selections probably including KOL, EWZ, REMX, IDX, and similar securities.

True Contrarian


Disclosure: Since May 2012 I have been progressively accumulating long positions in funds of commodity producers whenever they have been most disfavored. I completed selling many funds of general equities which I had bought near their important low points in 2012, and which I unloaded on a gradual basis from January 28, 2013 through May 3, 2013. In late August and early September 2013 I was aggressively buying the shares of emerging-market country funds. Since early December 2013, I have added moderately to my funds of the most undervalued mining shares and emerging-market equities, especially during their most extended pullbacks. From my largest to my smallest position, I currently own GDXJ, KOL, XME, GDX, REMX, SCIF, SIL, COPX, GLDX, IDX, GXG, RSX, ECH, EWZ, VGPMX, VNM, URA, BGEIX, ZJG (Toronto), SLX, PLTM, BRF, EPU, THD, EPHE, and SOIL. I have significantly reduced my total cash position since June 2013 in order to increase my holdings of the above assets, and I sold almost 90% of my SLX near 49 dollars per share because steel insiders were doing likewise.
 
I took opportunity and copied down those positions for future reference - as usual you make my work easier. Thanx.
 
Look at gold go.....


I'm taking a few weeks off from trading to catch up on some projects....It's going to be in the high 60's today, and day-trading is ok during the winter, but I have other things I like to do once the weather warms up. In the 70's tomorrow, so I'll be outside doing something.....even if it's just reading the paper and drinking coffee.

I don't know if GDXJ will go back under 38.00 during the next DCL for gold, but I don't chase when the RSI is this high. Kaplan thought it might, but that's a guess on his part.

Some comments from Kaplan:

The shares of commodity producers have mostly been rallying for the past two months, with junior gold and silver mining shares the top-performing equities of any kind during that interval. GDX, GDXJ, GLDX, SIL, and similar funds have recently surpassed their respective 200-day simple moving averages for the first time since the second half of 2012. This has resulted in very recent participation by momentum players who will buy anything which has recently gained 40%, 50%, or similar percentages, or for which there have been various moving-average crossings, or which have achieved various technical benchmarks. For example, GDXJ reached an intraday peak of 42.00 on Tuesday which is an increase of more than 45% from its 52-week bottom of 28.82 (or 28.80 if you include pre-market trades). Whenever there has been a surge of participation by non-value traders, regardless of the reason(s), a sharp short-term correction becomes increasingly likely to enable the market to repeatedly shake out and punish those who are tardy to all trends. No danger of short-term overvaluation or momentum participation exists for lagging subsectors including coal mining (KOL). Uranium mining (URA) briefly had some chasers jumping aboard last month, who have since mostly been flushed out. Rare-earth extraction (REMX) also remains undervalued. Platinum and palladium mining (PLTM) hasn't yet participated in the gains of gold and silver producers.


The price of gold bullion finally regained the 1300 level at least temporarily. When the yellow metal was trading near 1190, numerous brokerages and analysts forecast targets of 1080 and below, while almost no one mentioned the possibility of a rebound to 1300 or above--even though both represented symmetric moves of 110 dollars. Whenever there is an especially lopsided consensus in one direction or another, the market almost always does the exact opposite. In the short run, now that some short sellers have been knocked out near 1300 while a flood of momentum players have joined the bullish gold and silver bandwagon, the likelihood of a significant retracement has substantially increased. Active short-term traders with extensive options trading experience should consider selling qualified covered calls on GDXJ and similar holdings, while all subscribers should refrain from adding to their long positions at the present time.


True Contrarian
 
I do have 1 short-term trade on, and it's TZA. When the short-term indicator at Sentiment Trader goes up to 80 I always take a Beer Money Trade.

SentimenTrader Home


2/13/2014 2/19/2014 TZA BOUGHT SHARES OF TZA AT $17.148

Good trading...

G FUND.



$NQH14 – E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:3653)

February 14, 2014 2:22 am GMT


The Nasdaq has punched through to new record highs. Although its tempting to dismiss this dubious milestone as the work of lunatics who recklessly manage Other People’s Money and who believe that no price is too much to pay for the likes of Tesla, Netflix, Priceline, Twitter and other legendary companies of the New Millennium, the rally is proof that the game is not yet over. The S&Ps and Industrial average seem all but certain to follow the Naz higher, and so we need to be prepared for whatever blow-off top impends.

The rally could yet collapse, since a stock market trading in record territory generates the sort of fervor among bulls that blinds them to their own excesses. The prospect of a bull trap seems even more compelling, given that economic data from around the world has begun to dim ominously. While this might portend mere recession in ordinary times, it is a matter far more grave when a global slowdown could easily set in motion the deflationary implosion of a quadrillion-dollar, global house of cards.

In any event, we’ll be eager to short the 3674 target shown, since this ‘Hidden Pivot’ resistance is a technically logical place for the rally to fail. However, if the resistance gives way easily, we’ll simply keep trying — always with the very tight stop-losses that the Hidden Pivot Method allows. FYI, the next appealing short would come at 3739 — our minimum upside target if 3674 gives way.

$NQH14 – E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:3653)
 
If you did, it wouldn't have gone up. You know how that works. :)

Are we about to get a parabolic move in the metals while everyone waits for a pullback?

I see JNUG is off about $2 from it's high today, but still up $3. It's gone from $30 to $40 in a little over a day! These are some wild rides.
 
tsptalk said:
If you did, it wouldn't have gone up. You know how that works. :)

Are we about to get a parabolic move in the metals while everyone waits for a pullback?

I see JNUG is off about $2 from it's high today, but still up $3. It's gone from $30 to $40 in a little over a day! These are some wild rides.
Click to expand...

Maybe we will not get a pull-back, but I'm not chasing this move. I don't use stops when I trade JNUG....and I only make short-term trades with it. I don't know if Kaplan's call for GDXJ under 38.00 will happen, but if it does lots of traders will get stopped out. Trading the miners is a wild ride for sure.

I bought some DUST to go with my TZA for a day-trade, but I'm not going to trade much for the next few weeks. I day-trade full time and when I'm not having fun it's time for me step-back....ha...the metals/miners 3X indexes will do that to you.

Take care and have a nice weekend.

2/14/2014 9:51:24 AM ET DUST Bought 500 DUST @ $19.767 Executed
 
CrabClaw said:
guess I should have pulled the trigger on USLV yesterday :nuts:
Click to expand...

That would have worked out well. I have 3 paid services all buying Silver this last week....Gold will have another DCL, and it should go back under 1300....I say SHOULD. What will silver do when that happens we will have to wait and see. Lots of folks chasing this move, and maybe they will be correct, but I agree with Kaplan, and he says not to add miners now. Will that advice be correct...who knows! I had some fairly large positions in Silver, but got tired of having the funds tied up in Silver doing nothing - while the miners were making such big moves so I sold lots of it. Oh well, we wait on the next trade....

Holding 2 short positions for a day-trade.

Good luck on your trades.
 
Silver has been lagging the gold breakout. Today it gapped up and finally broke its down trend, probably taking out the short stops. The potential resistance from the 200-day EMA is not far off.

021414a.gif
 
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2014

ANOTHER PIECE OF THE PUZZLE FALLS INTO PLACE
Today another piece fell into place in my Grand Inflation scenario that I'm expecting for 2014.

Before I begin let me recap. My overarching driver for the Grand Inflation scenario is that the dollar would have some kind of crisis, or semi-crisis late this year as it drops down into its major three year cycle low. All other stock and commodity movements will be driven by this impending currency crisis.

For stocks, I'm expecting a final bubble phase parabolic spike over the next 4-5 months, followed by a devastating crash as the parabola collapses in June or July.

For commodities I'm expecting a stealth rally for another month-month and a half, followed by a super spike inflationary phase in the latter half of the year as the dollar collapse reaches maximum intensity.

Today the dollar broke through its intermediate trend line confirming that an intermediate degree decline is now in progress.

Smart Money Tracker: ANOTHER PIECE OF THE PUZZLE FALLS INTO PLACE
 
I have Morris' trading service, and he is bullish in the videos below. Now, with that said I received alerts from him to reduce position sizes for GDX, GDXJ, Gold, and Silver Friday. We shall see next week if the DCL is up next, and if that was a good call....It's never straight up most of the time, so if you missed this week's rally you should get another chance to buy again.

Good Trading.


Super Force Signals - A Leading Market Timing Service
We Take Every Trade Ourselves

Gold & Silver Stock Bull Flags

Morris Hubbartt
trading@superforcesignals.com
trading@superforce60.com
Super Force Precious Metals Video Analysis
posted Feb 14, 2014

"Our main format is now video analysis..."

Here are today's videos:


Feb 14, 2014 Gold & Silver Stock Bull Flags Morris Hubbartt 321gold ...inc ...s
 
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