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Doug Casey: 'Gold Stocks Are About to Create a Whole New Class of Millionaires'

ear markets always end. Has this one?
Evidence is mounting that the bottom for gold may be in. While there's still risk, there's a new air of bullishness in the industry, something we haven't seen in over two years.
An ever-growing number of industry insiders and investment analysts believe the downturn has come to a close. If that's true, it has immediate and critical implications for investors.
Doug Casey told me last week: "In my lifetime, the best time to have bought gold was 1971, at $35; it ran to over $800 by 1980. In 2001, gold was $250: in real terms even cheaper than in 1971. It ran to over $1,900 in 2011.
"It's now at $1,250. Not as cheap, in real terms, as in 1971 or 2001, but the world's financial and economic state is far more shaky.

Doug Casey: 'Gold Stocks Are About to Create a Whole New Class of Millionaires' | Jeff Clark | Safehaven.com
 
For folks that like to buy value indexes...and try to catch the falling machete....

From Kaplan:

This is special intraday update #1968a for Wednesday morning, January 29, 2014.


I bought EWZ at 38.99 with the next rung in my ladder using 0.10% of my net worth, which I would rate as a 7.5 on a scale of 0 through 10. EWZ is a fund of Brazilian shares; these equities have become extremely unpopular in recent months as the mainstream financial media have hyped everything negative in that country while ignoring the fact that Brazil and the rest of South America sport some of the world's highest average GDP growth rates over the past three decades and especially since 2002. Depressed prices for agricultural commodities and related assets have negatively impacted Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and other countries which rely heavily on export-driven commodity production.


Other than EWZ, there are very good buying opportunities including KOL (coal mining), BRF (Brazil small-caps), ECH (Chile), TUR (Turkey), EPHE (the Philippines), RSXJ (Russia small-caps), GXG (Colombia), and IDX (Indonesia), roughly in that order. I have raised my highest price for HDGE to 12.89. I have removed my orders for GDX, GDXJ, and SIL, because emerging markets and KOL appear to be better relative bargains for new purchases at the present time.

True Contrarian
 
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Robo,

Having you around is going to make my investing life so much easier. I'll be building a portfolio for my wife in a few months when we roll over her defined contribution plan into a traditional IRA. I plan to convert the money into an income stream buying all sorts of stuff to include some dividend ETFs.
 
Birchtree said:
Robo,

Having you around is going to make my investing life so much easier. I'll be building a portfolio for my wife in a few months when we roll over her defined contribution plan into a traditional IRA. I plan to convert the money into an income stream buying all sorts of stuff to include some dividend ETFs.
Click to expand...

Ha....thanks! Sounds like an excellent plan. This has been one heck of a Bull Run, and you have done well....Take some profits the next time we make new highs, and put a couple of million in the G Fund.

Take Care!
 
A comment from Kaplan:

Some shares of energy producers have been strong, including uranium mining (URA) and natural gas extraction (FCG), although coal mining shares (KOL) remain depressed and a good bargain while companies related to crude oil production have recently been sliding. Emerging-market equities mostly continue to struggle, although there have been a few positive divergences including Peru (EPU), partly because of its emphasis on mining companies as compared with countries like Brazil (EWZ, BRF) and Chile (ECH) which have a higher concentration in slumping agricultural-related companies. Many investors don't realize that numerous agricultural commodities are trading near multi-year bottoms, because the mainstream financial media repeatedly hype gold and crude oil (which admittedly are highly liquid) while almost completely ignoring corn, coffee, and sugar. Political turmoil in Turkey (TUR) has also provided bargains in that country. Recent strength in metals mining shares should encourage purchasing of other commodity-related and emerging-market assets, because the shares of metals producers often complete major tops or bottoms a few weeks to a few months ahead of other commodity-based securities. XME, a fund of global large-cap mining shares and a frequent leading indicator, has been steadily climbing since it had bottomed on June 24, 2013.


Whenever an asset class has been out of favor for an extended period of time, such as most emerging markets which have been in downtrends since April 2011, a subsequent slump often provides a very good buying opportunity. The recent sharp declines for emerging-market equities, currencies, and bonds are similar to the final stages of the collapses for mining shares and related commodity producers in the late autumn of 2013, and will probably be followed by dramatic gains during the upcoming year.

True Contrarian

Disclosure: Since May 2012 I have been progressively accumulating long positions in funds of commodity producers whenever they have been most disfavored. I completed selling many funds of general equities which I had bought near their important low points in 2012, and which I unloaded on a gradual basis from January 28, 2013 through May 3, 2013. In late August and early September 2013 I was aggressively buying the shares of emerging-market country funds. Since early December 2013, I have added moderately to my funds of the most undervalued mining shares and emerging-market equities, especially during their most extended pullbacks. From my largest to my smallest position, I currently own GDXJ, KOL, XME, GDX, REMX, SCIF, SIL, COPX, GLDX, IDX, GXG, RSX, ECH, EWZ, VGPMX, VNM, URA, BGEIX, ZJG (Toronto), SLX, PLTM, BRF, EPU, THD, EPHE, and SOIL. I have significantly reduced my total cash position since June 2013 in order to increase my holdings of the above assets, and I sold almost 90% of my SLX near 49 dollars per share because steel insiders were doing likewise.
 
CrabClaw said:
he may get it. I certainly hope so as I am holding TZA
Click to expand...

Nice trade Brotherman....I'm still short-term trading the metal/miners, but don't post much of it here.

I just sold in the pre-market and went flat again....I made some nice Beer money, and I'm waiting on the next trade. I'm still trying to catch the next DCL and take a large position trade, but it looks like whipsaw city will continue for now!

1/29/2014 DUST BOUGHT SHARES OF DUST AT $28.2768
1/29/2014 JDST BOUGHT SHARES OF JDST AT $33.586
1/30/2014 USLV BOUGHT SHARES OF USLV AT $42.85

1/31/2014 8:40:49 AM ET USLV Sold USLV @ $44.35 Executed
1/31/2014 7:49:39 AM ET JDST Sold JDST @ $35.51 Executed
1/31/2014 7:17:35 AM ET DUST Sold DUST @ $29.23 Executed
 
How Smart Traders Will Make Money in the Coming Bear Market
By Jeff Clark, editor, S&A Short Report
Thursday, January 30, 2014

Stocks are not in a bear market yet. But they're headed in that direction.

The stock market has been forming an important long-term top for the past few months. We know this because market tops are made just about every six to seven years. The last top was in September 2007. So we're in the time frame for another right now.

Bear markets are filled with emotional moves. Investors panic to get out when it looks like stocks are ready to fall off a cliff. They panic to get in when stocks start to bounce and traders fear they've missed the bottom. All that emotion creates volatility. It creates fast moves where indicators rapidly flip back and forth between oversold and overbought conditions. And it creates lots of trading setups for traders who are looking to anticipate those moves.

I expect 2014 will be a rough year for most investors. But it should be enormously profitable for traders who can adapt to bear-market conditions.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

How Smart Traders Will Make Money in the Coming Bear Market
 
I'm taking a small cap long trade using TNA....Turn-around-Tuesday? Maybe....

2/3/2014 1:38:20 PM ET TNA Bought TNA @ $63.4284 Executed

I only took 1 day-trade using the miners today.....

2/3/2014 11:09:40 AM ET DUST Bought 900 DUST @ $28.642 Executed

2/3/2014 12:25:55 PM ET DUST Sold 900 DUST @ $29.5175 Executed


Blustar is also thinking we are close to a bounce....We shall see!


Looks Like We Are Finally There!!!, TRIN 2.41, SPX 1744/45

Looks Like We Are Finally There!!! - Traders-Talk.com
 
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A comment from the Guy I follow that does Da-Wave! We shall see....


"The best moves are the ones that happen when people don’t know the reason “why” and the bad ISM number this morning is the perfect opportunity to get people long gold and short stocks right before a move in the opposite direction to shake them out."
 
I did not buy COPX.....or any other of the recommendations on the list below, but I'm not a investor....I'm a trader.

Good trading.



Dear subscribers,


This is special intraday update #1970a for Monday afternoon, February 3, 2014.


I bought COPX at 8.74 using 0.12% of my net worth with the next rung in my ladder, which I would rate as an 8.5 on a scale of 0 through 10. COPX is a fund of copper mining shares which has made several higher lows since it bottomed in late June 2013. Many of the components of COPX are trading not far above their lowest levels since the summer of 2009. Investor attention in the mining sector has focused primarily on gold and silver mining, and has thereby ignored other worthwhile bargains including COPX and PLTM. During a transition from a general equity bull market to a bear market, the shares of base metal producers are usually strong performers; this pattern dates back to the 1800s. In the newspaper I sometimes reference from St. Petersburg, Florida on the last day of 1936, one of the financial articles discusses the "recent" rise for commodity producers of all kinds. Eras of stagnation have an amazing amount in common with each other, even when external circumstances appear to be quite different.


Other than COPX, there are very good buying opportunities including EWZ (Brazil), KOL (coal mining), BRF (Brazil small-caps), ECH (Chile), TUR (Turkey), IDX (Indonesia), EPHE (the Philippines), RSXJ (Russia small-caps), and GXG (Colombia), roughly in that order. SLX is also becoming more compelling; if you sold it near 49 as I had recommended (or you were even more patient and sold it near 50), then it is probably worthwhile to consider repurchasing it now that it has gone below 44 again.


VIX surged to an intraday high of 21.13 so far today. In all of 2013, which included periods when the S&P 500 was significantly lower than it is now, VIX never reached 22. Investor fear has risen too quickly relative to the stock market's moderate pullback, and we are likely to soon experience a meaningful bounce for nearly all equity sectors. It is timely to purchase something rather than to do nothing.

True Contrarian
 
Adding some more shares of TNA....


2/3/2014 2:59:16 PM ET TNA Bought TNA @ $63.4085 Executed


Good trading
 
A comment from Kaplan:

It is highly likely that 2014 will be a year in which the questions which investors aren't asking will prove to be the most important ones. Since it is illogical that U.S. and Japanese equities should be so overvalued relative to stocks in the rest of the world, the upcoming year will ensure that such an irrational condition doesn't continue. It's possible that either U.S. equities will plummet, or that emerging-market shares will soar, or both. My guess is that U.S.-based stocks won't collapse, for numerous reasons--including the fact that, historically, bear markets tend to begin slowly. The Russell 2000 declined gradually for nearly 14 months in 2007-2009 before it began to move rapidly lower. 2014 will likely consist of a series of moderate corrections for U.S. equities, each of which is followed by a strong short-term bounce. We are probably close to one such bounce right now, which will likely continue until the middle of February. Just when nearly everyone becomes convinced that the U.S. stock market is set to resume its climb to new highs, there will be another pullback to bring people back to reality. As the year goes on, some percentage of investors will be frustrated with the lack of overall progress, or will simply dislike the two-way fluctuations after a calm year of rising prices in 2013, and will make net withdrawals. This will eventually lead to a 2014 loss averaging approximately 10% for most major U.S. equity indices. Thus, in order to reassert their normal ratios to U.S. equities, emerging-market shares will gain dramatically--averaging 50% for many of the best-known bourses such as Brazil and probably higher percentages for lesser-followed countries. In case you think that a fund like EWZ can't possibly gain 50%, keep in mind that when I last recommended selling funds including RSX and EWZ in January-February 2012, the price of EWZ was about 50% higher than it is now.

True Contrarian
 
BluStar's next call.....We shall see, but he has been on a roll lately.


My read is tomorrow is the ST bottom near SPX 1733.45. A huge rally should ensue, especially into Friday this week. I have targets as high as 1813/14 general area.

Just About There - Traders-Talk.com
 
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