TLT monthly: Why TLT now. Based on the monthly data below, and where TLT is now in the current cycle, the data indicates TLT will outperform the SPY the next couple of years. That is based on the monthly pattern on the chart below. So unless it's different this time the divergence should close up, SPY should move down, and TLT should start climbing out of it's 3 year cycle low. This is NOT my opinion it is based on the chart pattern below, as TLT hits an extreme pattern tagging the 100 mma. Sure, it might be different this time, but in the long run it looks like TLT will outperform SPY based on the data I'm looking over. Remember that those candlesticks below are monthly, and please note the 100 month moving average and the current TSI number.
Kaplan likes them too.... I do get his newsletter, and watch his twice weekly Zoom meetings. However, I'm a trader not an investor, but I like the his true contrarian data and prospective he provides me that I use along with my trading.
Safe havens are likely to significantly outperform for two or three years.
Safe-haven investments including U.S. Treasuries, government bonds of other countries, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and probably also the British pound are likely to notably outperform U.S. large-cap growth shares for two or three years.
Investors who may be considering safe-haven investments have been avoiding them for the worst reasons including the fact that they have been poor performers in recent months. That makes them better, not worse, as their percentage gains will have to be higher to make up for their recent losses. Investors aren't paying enough attention to the amazing similarities between 2022 and previous years like 2000 and 1929 when large-cap growth stocks were in the early stages of their bear markets. Whatever happened under similar past circumstances is highly likely to reoccur with investing just as with most of life.
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True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian
Apr 5
Investors overall are too eager to take risks because those who took the most dangerous chances in recent years have generally been the most rewarded. People are obsessed with return ON capital and aren't considering the necessity to have return OF capital (i.e., not losing money
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