Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

I am going to drop this here. Feel free to distribute as you see fit.

It kind of let's everyone know exactly what we are up against as retail investors.

This is a compilation of a lot of research by a lot of very smart people starting it Feb. 2021 (I do not claim to be one).



You may find it a bit one-stock centric, but it is because that was where the initial issues manifested and retail investors have been piling on ever since (to include Direct Registration of Shares [DRS]).

https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg

The insiders are selling their personal stock shares and retail investors are still buying the dips. BTD works great in a Bull market, not so well in a Bear Market. Keep in mind I’m buying and selling all the time with a mix of short and long positions, but I’m a trader NOT an investor.

 

[Benny7563]

I am going to drop this here. Feel free to distribute as you see fit.

It kind of let's everyone know exactly what we are up against as retail investors.

This is a compilation of a lot of research by a lot of very smart people starting it Feb. 2021 (I do not claim to be one).

You may find it a bit one-stock centric, but it is because that was where the initial issues manifested and retail investors have been piling on ever since (to include Direct Registration of Shares [DRS]).

https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg

 

[robo]

"Here is the Inflation data for the cave. It looks like it is going to be DARK!"

Yes Sir: I love trading Bear Markets now..... I hated it in 2000, and 2008, but I learned some hard lessons that are making me money now. Lots of problems going forward right now..... Great for trading as many new investors have NO IDEA what to do. Buying the dip to early in Bear Markets is rough on your retirement account.

 

[robo]

VXF daily: Plenty of room to move lower.... I just sold my SDS @ $48.00...... Looking to buy SSO..... We should be getting a bounce here soon.....

 

[Benny7563]

Here is the Inflation data for the cave. It looks like it is going to be DARK!

 

[robo]

VXF weekly: (S fund) I will be trying to catch a bounce off the 200 week MA. LOL.... If we get one...... This is catching the falling knife trade, but it will be hedged. A high risk trade, but I like the odds for a ST trade. Not recommended for most! We shall see if we undercut the 200 wma, make a higher low, or just keep moving lower and make a lower low. My "GUESS and BET" is we will bounce somewhere around the 200 wma. Yes, this is gambling and is a High Risk Trade. I was long SDS going into today's move lower. Also long some other short indexes.

Typical Bear Market action.... We shall see how we close..... I will sell most short positions and take profits before we close today. Those gains is how I offset my long positions, and I'm still only ST trading.

 

[robo]

Strong markets can stay overbought, weak ones can stay oversold. I'm ready for SPX 3,500 and don't see the lows holding. If it goes lower, that's just more tax loss selling I can do in the taxable account.

I have been done lots of ST trading both ways. Up for the year so far, but I'm playing small ball and keeping it that way for now. As I pointed out earlier, are we about to see a lower low or a higher low? We shall see!

Stocks Deliver Sell Signal

With stocks in their timing band for both an intermediate and yearly cycle low, the odds were good that the late May cycle low would mark a new weekly and yearly cycle low. So if day 60 was the intermediate/yearly cycle low then the first daily cycle out of that low should right translate. However stocks formed a swing high on Thursday. And with a potential peak on day 8 — that would indicate a left translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily downtrend and signals a cycle band sell signal.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/stocks-deliver-sell-signal-3/

 

[robo]

Watching!

 

[Bullitt]

Strong markets can stay overbought, weak ones can stay oversold. I'm ready for SPX 3,500 and don't see the lows holding. If it goes lower, that's just more tax loss selling I can do in the taxable account.

 

[robo]

VXF weekly: ( S Fund) Still unable to start a new trend above the 10 week MA. The index remains in a bearish setup..... If you use the 20 week MA VXF moved below it 29 weeks ago which is a confirmed sell signal on my weekly chart and never recovered. The trend remains down using the weekly data as it continues to make lower highs..... This is classic Bear Market action.

The moves in the dollar is adding to the current stock market pressure and causing some of these crazy swings.

 

[robo]

VXF daily (S Fund) : Unable to move above the 50 dma. Is VXF going to make a higher low, tag the lower BB or maybe make a lower low. LOL..... We shall see! I still have one move left, but would have to see some kind of extreme to buy some TSP shares again. I'm doing very well in accounts with unlimited moves.

 

[robo]

Making Friends with Bears Through Math


John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

June 2022


Waiting for “the” capitulation
Aside from ignoring valuations and market internals, one of the behaviors that will get you eaten in a bear market is placing too much confidence in any single “capitulation.” Speculative episodes typically unwind in waves. The steeper the starting valuations, the more waves one typically observes.

S&P 500 2000-2002:

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220601/

 

[robo]

SPX weekly chart:

Regression events underway

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5VBq6WAtrs&t=3s

 

[robo]

Cycles:

Stocks Crossed The Line

Stocks closed back above the lower stem of the megaphone topping pattern on Friday.

When stocks broke bearishly out of the megaphone topping pattern – it looked like the Worse Case Scenario, which we discussed here. However, this may be the best buying opportunity of the year. In the Weekend Report I take a look at the bigger picture for stocks. I discuss where stocks are in their daily weekly and yearly cycles. And why I believe that the best opportunity for gains for the year is still in front of us.

 

[robo]

Hmmmm....


The Red Cycle Approximates Where We are Currently in this Bear Market Cycle
1:18 PM · May 27, 2022·TweetDeck

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author


We won't say that most investors are clueless about the past, but we'll call them historically challenged.


In recent years it has become politically correct to say that people with defects are physically or mentally challenged. 99% of today's investors have put close to zero effort into understanding the market's patterns through the decades and are certain that it's completely different this time. We won't even call them dimwits. Instead, we'll be nice and say that they're historically challenged. Today's investors don't respect previous episodes not just because they have no concept of past behavior, but because they're sure that it can't be of any use to their current portfolios or the most likely future behavior.

Kaplan

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/


David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
May 25
As Bill Ackman tees off on the Fed, do you think he knows that both M1 & M2 contracted in April, taking their YoY growth trends back to where they were pre-COVID? Tack on the fiscal contraction & we have the makings of demand-led deflation ahead, regardless of supply-chain issues
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en

 

[robo]

Has BTFD's turned into STFR's?

Very possibe! We shall see how this daily cycle low plays out. I'm still trying to catch the next ICL, but continue to get whipsawed. Bear Markets are tough to trade. Watching the weekly for a possible ICL..... It looks like the 7 weeks down will hold. It was above average odds just to go long using that data point.

"The S&P 500 is down for seven consecutive weeks, its worst stretch since the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2001."

Stocks Confirm New Daily Cycle

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday then delivered bullish follow through Wednesday and Thursday.

The next task at hand is to break above the lower stem of the megaphone topping pattern. Stocks will need to do so in order for any bullish trending move to develop. Rejection here would extend the intermediate cycle decline.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/05/26/stocks-confirm-new-daily-cycle-3/

 

[tsptalk]

Has BTFD's turned into STFR's?

 

[robo]

SPY daily: A nice move back above the 20 dma. The 50 dma will be next if the SPY can get there..... I remain long SPY. A confirmed by signal, but will I get whipsawed again? We shall see how this bounce plays out.

 

[robo]

Gold miners daily: Still looking good! GDX needs to get back above the 200 dma.......

 

[robo]

For any 22 LR plinkers out there. Finally got my Vudoo..... Shoots well, but probably over priced for most plinkers. Hard to get a good look at it from the picture below, but close to the one in this video.

THE MOST ACCURATE 22LR BOLT ACTION I HAVE EVER SHOT - VUDOO RAVAGE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8BnGrvnrww