Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

Waiting on the Fed......

Gold update still bullish


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBrow_Vbf0c&t=1s

 

[robo]

Miners Form Failed Daily Cycle

likesmoneystudies

Jun 14

The Miners broke below the previous daily cycle low on Tuesday.

Breaking below the previous daily cycle low forms a failed daily cycle and extends the intermediate cycle decline. There are bullish divergences developing on the oscillators that often herald the cycle low. And with the Miners being in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low, the odds are good that once the DCL forms it will mark the ICL as well.

We shall see! I'm long the gold miners....


FOMC Day: The Low For Gold?

24. For many years, I’ve been adamant that the “big show” for gold stocks begins only after not just one aggressive series of Fed hikes, but numerous bouts of them, and only when it becomes obvious that the hikes are failing to tame inflation. A mini version of the “big show” lies directly ahead, and while the target is not the moon, a very nice rally… is coming soon!

Thanks!

Cheers
st
Jun 7, 2022 FOMC Day: The Low For Gold? Stewart Thomson 321gold ...inc ...s

 

[robo]

David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
9h
I keep getting asked when I will finally turn bullish. Answer -- the day I flip my charts upside down.

#RosenbergResearch
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 13
We've had 8% inflation before. Been a while, but we've had it. What we've never had before was the Fed hiking rates into an official bear market. Brand spanking new. More downside coming.

#RosenbergResearch
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 13
Down 4% on a day with no new news. Incredible. What will tomorrow bring? I sense margin calls.

#RosenbergResearch #Markets
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 13
I don't know about anybody else, but this looks like a prelude to a crash. Get out of Dodge if you haven't already done so. It's not too late.

https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en

 

[robo]

I now have my biggest trade of the year in play...... So far it remains a loser, but still up YTD.

Long- GDXJ, EQX, AGQ, TKC, TLT, and VXF.

Day trading - JNUG, long @ $43.50.....

 

[robo]

Sometimes it just feels that way!

Stocks will never go up again in our lifetime

Yes, we are as bearish as you and do believe stocks will set new significant lows. However, some of the short-term sentiment indicators we are looking at are starting to indicate "too much too fast" and we wanted to examine why stocks could have a small bounce.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Stocks broke the previous daily cycle low on Monday.

Breaking below the previous DCL forms a failed daily cycle and extends the intermediate (weekly) cycle decline. At 15 days, stocks could trend lower for another 15 - 25 days before printing their DCL. Sentiment is very bearish and a technical level has been broken which would align with stocks declining for another 3 - 5 weeks.

The previous daily cycle ran long, so we could see a shortened daily cycle form here, which would balance out the cycle counts. Stocks are overdue for both a weekly and yearly cycle low. So if this undercut reverses quickly and closes above 3943.32, it could mark the daily, weekly and yearly cycle low.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/06/13/failed-daily-cycle-4/

 

[robo]

I'm back to only doing TSP for now. Took a break around November last year from trading anything else. Basically been in cash since then outside TSP, probably a good time that I decided to sit on my hands.

Anyway I'm just trying to catch some small gains here in TSP but agree that I didn't think we'd drop so far today. Main reason why I went in 50% on Friday instead of all in, I figured we would have another down day but man. I knew I should have waited until today to make my 1st move. So I did add the rest today but I'll set myself a mark on the downside and if I hit it then I'll head back to G. I made the move going in as a short term move anyway. Just hoping the rest of the week is green and I'll re-evaluate when I need to.

In my opinion your plan was sound based on the ST trading tools I use. I use the 10 dma and the 20 dma for trend trading and should be in cash right now as my system is on a sell signal. Once the SPY moved below the 10 and 20 dma I should have went to cash, but instead I took a TSP position. I went against my own trading system to try and get lucky. But sometimes, I just like to try and catch the lows based on the cycle data and a few other tools I use. I thought the odds were above average, but they were still only above average odds, not a for sure winner. A tad early so far. My trending trading system was correct this time. This move down today was huge, and caught me off guard too. My other tools for ST trading was NOT the way to go.

 

[LTJPFED]

I'm back to only doing TSP for now. Took a break around November last year from trading anything else. Basically been in cash since then outside TSP, probably a good time that I decided to sit on my hands.

Anyway I'm just trying to catch some small gains here in TSP but agree that I didn't think we'd drop so far today. Main reason why I went in 50% on Friday instead of all in, I figured we would have another down day but man. I knew I should have waited until today to make my 1st move. So I did add the rest today but I'll set myself a mark on the downside and if I hit it then I'll head back to G. I made the move going in as a short term move anyway. Just hoping the rest of the week is green and I'll re-evaluate when I need to.

 

[robo]

Always love the charts Robo, maybe silly question considering where we are last couple days, but you think we could get some bounce off that downtrend channel at around 3700? Just curious. I feel like these down moves have been sticking to the bottom of the channels and bounces, just like the updside, hits it and then drops. If it stays true to form then perhaps we get a bounce soon. My guess is we get one this week. But there is so much negativity and blood in the streets that it might be harder to get those bounces. And to add even if we get that bounce it will probably not head back up to 4100 in a straight 2-3 day move. The channel continues to move down so as you go back up the top of your channel will be further down so maybe it tags it at 3880-3920? Probably enough to fill that gap and maybe that's your highwater mark idk. Just thinking out loud lol.

But always enjoy the charts! Keep em coming!

Thanks for the kind words!

I'm playing it (positioned) for a bounce, but for NOW I'm LONG and WRONG Brother! However, I'm using the weekly data so I will let it run for now. Keep in mind I'm using other funds too. I'm trading from the LONG and SHORT side, and when I'm 100% long in TSP I move 100k not my entire account. I have posted that before.

We shall see how this plays out. Using VXF this trade and down over (5.4% ) today on this trade. I sure didn't think we would move this low today, but I was not going to sell today. In fact I went long a few things today and sold my SDS position.

A rough day for all those that ONLY use TSP for trading/investing.

Take Care and good trading Brother!

 

[robo]

Sure do wish Birchtree was still around and posting. Always the PermaBull. Sit tight and be right.

I use odds and have been trying to catch an ICL and have been wrong twice. Brother sitting tight in a Bear Market is not the way to play a Bear Market. However, in a Bull Market buying early is not a problem. I'm still playing this like it's a Bear Market, but still looking for a ST bounce.... LOL..... So far no such luck, and trying to pick bottoms is all about luck Brother. Especially in a Bear Market.

SPY weekly: Are we headed to tag the 200 week MA? Maybe......I took a hit too today on all my long positions. Starting out the week poorly. Lucky I had a above average position of SDS.

 

[LTJPFED]

Always love the charts Robo, maybe silly question considering where we are last couple days, but you think we could get some bounce off that downtrend channel at around 3700? Just curious. I feel like these down moves have been sticking to the bottom of the channels and bounces, just like the updside, hits it and then drops. If it stays true to form then perhaps we get a bounce soon. My guess is we get one this week. But there is so much negativity and blood in the streets that it might be harder to get those bounces. And to add even if we get that bounce it will probably not head back up to 4100 in a straight 2-3 day move. The channel continues to move down so as you go back up the top of your channel will be further down so maybe it tags it at 3880-3920? Probably enough to fill that gap and maybe that's your highwater mark idk. Just thinking out loud lol.

But always enjoy the charts! Keep em coming!

 

[robo]

GDXJ daily: Trending down again in the ST, and was UNABLE to move back above the 200 dma. I will be adding shares.

 

[Blarney]

Sure do wish Birchtree was still around and posting. Always the PermaBull. Sit tight and be right.

 

[robo]

VXF weekly: Remains a tad under the old low marker at (131.31)..... I'll be watching to see if the VXF weekly price can close out the week above the 200 week MA again. If it does that would make it 6 weeks in a row. This could be a "possible support zone" and maybe a ICL in the works. Someone is buying around that level with deep pockets. Still, for NOW MORE PAIN for investors..... We shall see how the rest of the week goes..... Still long SDS, but will close out that position before the close. Made some nice money on it the last two trading days. No need to get to greedy. My miner position sure took a big hit today.....adding at the close.

 

[robo]

"S fund already down -4.26% this morning."

( i hate that we are limited to 2 trades per month. I've already blown one, and if I pull the trigger and bail today, I'm locked into a three-day loss of almost 10%).

That is why I went 100% long Friday because I'm trading the weekly chart. However, I'm also long SDS. It really does suck. I'm performing this test for my son using 100k. Lucky to only be down around 3% YTD, but that will change today. However, I'm trading the weekly chart and will let this run some more. Using the VXF weekly chart and long the S Fund. Back testing the weekly low marker this morning (131.31). I will be holding for now, but this remains very ugly if you are not hedge. Like I said I'm using SDS.

Bottom Line: Is sure does SUCK BROTHER!

 

[robo]

SPX 2 hour chart: I'm trading both ways today. We moved below the SPX 3800 mark.....We shall see where we close today!

SPX - the waterfall formation
SPX is closing in on the big 3800 level. We have not closed this low since March 2021. Note RSI is becoming very oversold here and let's not forget we touched 4144 as day highs on Thursday. The move lower has been brutal. SPX continues trading inside the trend channel, and there is more room to the downside, but 3800 is an important level to watch for possible short term supports.

https://themarketear.com/posts/cijZjCPGR2

 

[James48843]

OUCH!


S fund already down -4.26% this morning.


that smarts!

( i hate that we are limited to 2 trades per month. I've already blown one, and if I pull the trigger and bail today, I'm locked into a three-day loss of almost 10%).

 

[robo]

SPY daily: It looks like we will get plenty of action this week!

Back testing the lows.....

 

[robo]

SPX 2 hour chart: Undercut of the low marker (3810.32) at the open: We shall see if buyers come in .....

 

[robo]

VXF weekly: ( S Fund) VXF has back tested and held ( weekly closing price) above the 200 week MA for 5 weeks so far. Will it make it 6 weeks? We shall see..... A gap down and an undercut to start the week out.