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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
I no longer subscribe to Sentiment Trader. The last two years of rare extremes has caused me to move on from using sentiment for trading. I still track it, but use cycles more now.
GDX daily: Remains on a sell signal. I have been mainly day-trading the miners, and I'm still holding a small position overnight..... No leverage. I only use JNUG/NUGT for daytrading, and close out those positions daily.
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robo
Well-known member
No recession - what is the trade?
What if the recession doesn't materialise? JPM writes: "...if a recession does not materialize (as is our base case), then the market will see a rotation out of defensives and into oversold higher beta and smaller cap market segments".
The investment bank recommends buying the Russell 2000 3M 105-115% call spreads for around 2.65% of notional indicatively. That gives you a 4x max pay out ratio. Russell volatility isn't overly rich on a relative basis.
https://themarketear.com/
What if the recession doesn't materialise? JPM writes: "...if a recession does not materialize (as is our base case), then the market will see a rotation out of defensives and into oversold higher beta and smaller cap market segments".
The investment bank recommends buying the Russell 2000 3M 105-115% call spreads for around 2.65% of notional indicatively. That gives you a 4x max pay out ratio. Russell volatility isn't overly rich on a relative basis.
https://themarketear.com/
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robo
Well-known member
Jesse Felder Retweeted
Coinfessions
@coinfessions
·
Jun 25
Hearing her voice shake as we try to figure out a game plan rattles my spirit.
Jesse Felder Retweeted
Macro Charts
@MacroCharts
·
Jun 25
New record low.
https://twitter.com/jessefelder
Coinfessions
@coinfessions
·
Jun 25
Hearing her voice shake as we try to figure out a game plan rattles my spirit.
Jesse Felder Retweeted
Macro Charts
@MacroCharts
·
Jun 25
New record low.
https://twitter.com/jessefelder
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robo
Well-known member
Small-caps record cheap
P/E of Small craps - Large caps.
Sentiment: STRONG BUY
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator since 2002
https://themarketear.com/
P/E of Small craps - Large caps.
Sentiment: STRONG BUY
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator since 2002
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
FOMO is here
Has sell the rip transformed into a FOMO chase? Friday was a very powerful day and most that "planned" to buy "cheap" stuff missed buying post the first move higher on June 21. Expecting things to come down again, they were shocked by Friday's px action. The psychological set up here is very powerful. Goldman's Flood sums it up well: "Today felt like a potential pivot point with bid getting healthier as we finally saw L/Os come in and passively buy (they have been net sellers on every single trading session since 6/7). FOMO is real at the moment (MFs currently sitting on well over $200b in cash right now and buying will intensify on moves higher). This community also took advantage (as buyers) of the abundance of liquidity on the closing bell today.... Today is not an all clear but I would certainly be more patient selling this pop as it was highest quality rally I have seen in over a month". Don't forget there is some month end re balancing stuff to be executed (approx $33bn says GS), as well as other supportive flow (here).
July FOMO
Did we start the front running on Friday?
https://themarketear.com/
Has sell the rip transformed into a FOMO chase? Friday was a very powerful day and most that "planned" to buy "cheap" stuff missed buying post the first move higher on June 21. Expecting things to come down again, they were shocked by Friday's px action. The psychological set up here is very powerful. Goldman's Flood sums it up well: "Today felt like a potential pivot point with bid getting healthier as we finally saw L/Os come in and passively buy (they have been net sellers on every single trading session since 6/7). FOMO is real at the moment (MFs currently sitting on well over $200b in cash right now and buying will intensify on moves higher). This community also took advantage (as buyers) of the abundance of liquidity on the closing bell today.... Today is not an all clear but I would certainly be more patient selling this pop as it was highest quality rally I have seen in over a month". Don't forget there is some month end re balancing stuff to be executed (approx $33bn says GS), as well as other supportive flow (here).
July FOMO
Did we start the front running on Friday?
https://themarketear.com/
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robo
Well-known member
So when will the Fed start cutting rates again? LOL.... "Recession risks have started to trump the inflation narrative"
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 24
Memo to the uninitiated: it is the change in jobless claims and not the level that presage the recession call -- and the move off the cycle trough says we're more than 80% of the way towards heading there.
#RosenbergResearch #Economy
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 24
Copper below $4 per pound, down over 24% from the highs (bear market), and down to a 16-month low tells me that “recession” risks have overtaken “inflation” risks.
#RosenbergResearch
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 23
The S&P Global mfg PMI dove to 52.4 in June from 57.0 & services were even weaker. Recession risks have started to trump the inflation narrative -- the stock market figured it out first & now the bond market is catching up. The Fed has one more hike left in July & then it’s over.
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
"I’ve covered the #markets and the #economy for four decades, and I can’t recall a time when more people—or at least prognosticators, economists, and bankers—were more certain that an economic downturn was imminent."
What to expect from a recession 'everyone' sees coming: Morning Brief
Recessions seems to be the talk of the town these days. So: if "everyone" knows a recession is coming, does that change what the
What to expect from a recession 'everyone' sees coming: Morning Brief
Andy Serwer with Dylan Croll
Sat, June 25, 2022, 5:00 AM·6 min read
https://finance.yahoo.com/finance/morning-brief-june-25-2022-110003339.html
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 24
Memo to the uninitiated: it is the change in jobless claims and not the level that presage the recession call -- and the move off the cycle trough says we're more than 80% of the way towards heading there.
#RosenbergResearch #Economy
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 24
Copper below $4 per pound, down over 24% from the highs (bear market), and down to a 16-month low tells me that “recession” risks have overtaken “inflation” risks.
#RosenbergResearch
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 23
The S&P Global mfg PMI dove to 52.4 in June from 57.0 & services were even weaker. Recession risks have started to trump the inflation narrative -- the stock market figured it out first & now the bond market is catching up. The Fed has one more hike left in July & then it’s over.
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
"I’ve covered the #markets and the #economy for four decades, and I can’t recall a time when more people—or at least prognosticators, economists, and bankers—were more certain that an economic downturn was imminent."
What to expect from a recession 'everyone' sees coming: Morning Brief
Recessions seems to be the talk of the town these days. So: if "everyone" knows a recession is coming, does that change what the
What to expect from a recession 'everyone' sees coming: Morning Brief
Andy Serwer with Dylan Croll
Sat, June 25, 2022, 5:00 AM·6 min read
https://finance.yahoo.com/finance/morning-brief-june-25-2022-110003339.html
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robo
Well-known member
SevenSentinels Retweeted
CyclesFan
@CyclesFan
Jun 25
Next week will be critical for $SPX too. If it closes above the 10 week MA an early weekly cycle low on week 16 will be confirmed and it will retrace 50-62% of the April-June decline. Another rejection at the 10 WMA will likely lead to a decline to the 200 week MA in July.
CyclesFan
@CyclesFan
Jun 25
Next week will be critical for $SPX too. If it closes above the 10 week MA an early weekly cycle low on week 16 will be confirmed and it will retrace 50-62% of the April-June decline. Another rejection at the 10 WMA will likely lead to a decline to the 200 week MA in July.
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robo
Well-known member
robo
Well-known member
Hmmmm.....
Where are we in this bear market?
The "correction" is now at a median level
https://themarketear.com/
Where are we in this bear market?
The "correction" is now at a median level
https://themarketear.com/
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robo
Well-known member
Before Friday's move up!
Jun 24, 2022 Gold Stock Doldrums: Key Tactics Now Morris Hubbartt 321gold ...inc ...s
Jun 24, 2022 Gold Stock Doldrums: Key Tactics Now Morris Hubbartt 321gold ...inc ...s
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robo
Well-known member
Gold Miners: Odds improving for a possible bottom in play!
https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/gold-miners-bullish-percent-index/
https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/gold-miners-bullish-percent-index/
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robo
Well-known member
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robo
Well-known member
Weekly Swing Low
Stocks closed above the declining 10 day MA on Thursday then delivered bullish follow through on Friday to signal that day 19 was an early DCL.
Stocks printed their lowest point the previous week, which was week 36, placing them very deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks formed a weekly swing low this week. Only 1 time in the last 13 years did an intermediate cycle exceed 32 weeks. So the odds are high that this weekly swing low signals the new intermediate cycle. We still need to see a close above the declining 10 week MA in order to label week 36 as the ICL. Stocks are currently in a weekly downtrend. They will remain in their weekly downtrend unless they can close back above the upper weekly cycle band.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/06/25/weekly-swing-low-2/
Stocks closed above the declining 10 day MA on Thursday then delivered bullish follow through on Friday to signal that day 19 was an early DCL.
Stocks printed their lowest point the previous week, which was week 36, placing them very deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks formed a weekly swing low this week. Only 1 time in the last 13 years did an intermediate cycle exceed 32 weeks. So the odds are high that this weekly swing low signals the new intermediate cycle. We still need to see a close above the declining 10 week MA in order to label week 36 as the ICL. Stocks are currently in a weekly downtrend. They will remain in their weekly downtrend unless they can close back above the upper weekly cycle band.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/06/25/weekly-swing-low-2/
