Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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CrabClaw said:
I actually took a very small IWM put position yesterday before the close. I am thinking more downside Monday to possibly SPX 1770-1775 area before a sharp rebound intraday followed by a a few days of upside to 1830ish. this is total speculation on my part though.
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Good luck on your trade Brotherman!
 
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FRIDAY, JANUARY 24, 2014

"Bank of America Head Technician: 'Our Bullish View Is Invalidated, Going Neutral; Below 1806 Spells Trouble"'
In my experience, and I'm a lot older than most of our readers, this is not the way bear markets start. The realization that stocks were dropping spread too far, too fast.
Bull markets tend to roll over, gently start trading down and then, after running through class IV rapids, do the waterfall decline thing. They don't start with 4% drops.
Here's 1929:

So the next question is: Is this the start of a 10-20% drop or is this a fakeout-shakeout'?
Beats me.
But my best guess is 1910 on S&P before I have to check into a fortified bunker.

Here's the key: If, on the next run-up we don't see new highs, then there is big trouble coming.
S&P 500 1804.94 down 23.52. Daily low 1800.69.

Climateer Investing: "Bank of America Head Technician: 'Our Bullish View Is Invalidated, Going Neutral; Below 1806 Spells Trouble"'
 
Technical Market Report for January 25, 2014
By: Mike Burk | Sat, Jan 25, 2014

The good news is:

• The mid and small cap indices closed at all time highs last Wednesday.



Conclusion

As soon as I complained of the summer doldrums in January the market snapped out of it. The blue chip indices were down every day last week while the secondaries notched all time highs on Wednesday before joining the blue chips for a losing week. Strong breadth indicators suggest this is just a pull back in a bull market and it should be over soon.
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday January 31 than they were on Friday January 24.
Last weeks positive forecast was a miss.

Technical Market Report for January 25, 2014 | Mike Burk | Safehaven.com
 
CrabClaw said:
yea I will unload it pretty quickly either way. it is a very small position.
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I hear ya on that one....You would think Old Ben would try and keep the stock market from correcting much more before the new Fed takes over. Gold looks like a gap and crap, but I would sure like it to stay above 1268. My largest position right now is in Silver USLV, but I still have some JNUG and GDX. The gap up this evening is about gone, and the Crooks might go for another beat-down tonight. They love to hit gold on Sunday's, and most gaps at the open get filled pretty quick.....

I do have a long position I took at the close Friday for the S&P 500, but that's more of an oversold BB crash trade, and that could go either way. However, I usually take most of those short-term BB crash trades. Ha....we haven't seen many of them in a while....a BB crash trade I mean for the S&P 500.

Shoot....I would sure like to see silver get going, but not tonight it looks like.

Take care.

Gold Live Chart COMEX Gold Spot Futures Real Time Streaming Prices Commodity Live GOLD, SILVER, CRUDE, COPPER, NATURAL GAS|Live GOLD COMMODITIES
 
Bollinger Band Crash Trade

The rules of the Bollinger band crash trade are buy on the open after any day that the market or stock closes below the lower Bollinger band (10;1.9). Sell on any close that’s profitable or after 15 days whichever comes first.

A word of caution, the Bollinger band crash trade does not have a positive expectancy on individual stocks, and is best used on indexes only, and preferably at or near daily or intermediate cycle bottoms.
 
This is update #1966 for Sunday evening, January 26, 2014.


Perhaps the most important development in the U.S. financial markets during the past week was VIX climbing to 18.14, its highest reading since October 15, 2013, even though the S&P 500 upon which VIX options are based is far above its level from the middle of October. This means that investor fear is climbing far more rapidly than the percentage decline in equity indices would justify. As a result, the current pullback will be short in duration. Whenever VIX is sluggish in responding to a stock-market retreat, which will probably happen later in 2014, the irrational complacency will lead to a continued equity decline. In other words, the more quickly that fear materializes in the form of investors protecting themselves against a further loss, the more likely that the stock market will soon rebound.

True Contrarian
 
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Weekend Report...Junior Miners...The Importance of Being Too Early

By: Rambus Chartology | Sun, Jan 26, 2014


There is a lot we could discuss in this Weekend Report from the price action in the US stock markets to the world stock markets. As we are almost fully invested in the precious metals complex, and especially the juniors at this time, I think we need to put aside all the outside noise and focus on our PM investments.


Lets look at one last chart that is a daily line chart for JUNG. This chart shows you a very clear picture of the reverse symmetry that is taking place since the little double bottom was put in back in December of last year which created the head portion of the inverse H&S bottom #1. Note how the lower right shoulder was formed on the backtest to the double bottom hump at 15.80. JNUG then rallied all the way up to the next high at 27.50 which acted as resistance late last week and we are now getting a move lower that could form a right shoulder. That's the million dollar question right now. If JNUG can find a low somewhere in this general area and then rally backup through neckline #2 that would create a very large inverse H&S bottom which would equate to much higher prices. First things first though. In order for this setup to work JNUG needs to find a bottom very soon right in here. So far nothing is broken that would tell me to abort this potential bullish setup. So we have to go with the odds until something changes.

Weekend Report...Junior Miners...The Importance of Being Too Early | Rambus Chartology | Safehaven.com
 
Adding some JNUG....

1/27/2014 10:48:40 AM ET JNUG Bought 50 JNUG @ $22.21 Executed
1/27/2014 10:48:40 AM ET JNUG Bought 450 JNUG @ $22.21 Executed
 
CrabClaw said:
still holding those puts, doubled down at the open. have some sell orders in which would coincide with a 1.25% IWM drop. hovering around -1% now.
Click to expand...

It's looking like a nice trade....I made a couple of bucks trading TZA every now and then the past year, but I'm gun shy holding a short position very long after this Bull Run.
 
robo said:
I hear ya! JNUG looks like it is heading lower, and I might add some more shares.....My USLV is holding up ok, but Silver needs to get going here.
Click to expand...
When I look at the $GOLD chart (on decisionpoint.com) it looks like gold made a minor breakout from the recent descending trend. But the GLD chart still has it under the resistance line. Looks like a make or break time for gold.
 
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