Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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THE “BERNANKE PUT” AND THE FED’S TRILEMMA

22 December 2010 by TPC 18 Comments

“When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done” – JM Keynes, General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money

http://pragcap.com/bernank-put
 
BULLISHNESS HITS A FRESH HIGH

22 December 2010 by TPC 5 Comments

Just when you thought investors couldn’t possibly get more bullish they surprise to the upside. This morning’s Investor’s Intelligence survey showed a fresh high bullish reading of 58.8%. This is the highest reading since the second week of October 2007 – just one week shy of the all-time market high of 1565 on the S&P 500.

http://pragcap.com/bullishness-hits-a-fresh-high
 
Comparing Current Bear Market To Great Depression’s

Posted on December 22, 2010 by Babak

The current bear market has been inevitably compared to the greatest US stock market decline after the 1929 crash. The chart below compares the (inflation adjusted) S&P 500 index during both periods, starting from their respective tops:

http://tradersnarrative.wordpress.com/
 
Overshmought

December 22nd, 2010 Everybody is saying how the market is overbought, and they are not wrong about that. However, technical indicators are logical, not emotional. And when the herd is stampeding, you have to throw the indicators out the window. What are you going to do? Stand in front of the charging cows and say: “According to my calculations, you will get tired right…about…now.”

http://www.trivisonno.com/
 
After Nearly Two Years Of Searching, TrimTabs Still Can't Figure Out Who Is Buying Stocks
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2010 18:05 -0500

"Retail investors are not coming back to the US. Those investors that are investing are buying global equities and are buying commodities. We are seeing lots money going into commodity ETF funds: gold, silver..." and the even more unpleasant summation: "individuals have been selling, companies are net selling, insider selling and new offerings are swamping any buyback and any cash M&A activity since QE 2 was announced. Pension funds and hedge funds don't really have that much cash to invest. So what nobody's asking is what happens when QE 2 stops: if the only buyer is the Fed, and the Fed stops buying, I don't know what is going to happen...When I was on your show a year ago I was saying the same thing: we can't figure out who is doing the buying it has to be the government, and people said I was nuts. Now the government is admitting it is rigging the market." Cue Bartiromo jaw dropping.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/af...trimtabs-still-cant-find-who-doing-all-buying
 
John Taylor Says To Play The Coming End Of The Global Reliquification By Shorting Australia

In his weekly headline letter John Taylor analyzes where he and Jim Chanos have overlapping views, and where both of them erred (hint: everyone underestimated the willingness of Bernanke to sacrifice monetary prudence in order to reflate anything and everything, although with oil now the latest and greatest excess liquidity target, the experiment may soon be ending).

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jo...end-global-reliquification-shorting-australia
 
Conclusion

Seasonality is likely to dominate next week.

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday December 31 than they were on Friday December 24.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.
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If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.


In his latest newsletter Jerry Minton looks at the idea that continuous exposure to stocks is the way to get the “average” long-term return of the market. If you are retired or about to retire, you will want to read “Unnecessary Risks” at www.alphaim.net and sign-up for Jerry’s free bi-weekly newsletter.

Thank you,
Mike Burk
YTD W21/L19/T11

Disclaimer: Mike Burk is an employee and principal of Alpha Investment Management (Alpha) a registered investment advisor. Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy. Recent (last 10-15 yrs.) data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com), FastTrack (fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus (qp2.com) and the Wall Street Journal (wsj.com). Historical data is from Barron's and ISI price books. The views expressed dare provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

You may reproduce these letters provided you include a citation along with a link to the subscription page: http://alphaim.net/signup.html
 
Saturday, December 25, 2010
THE BEAR WILL RETURN IN 2011

It's almost impossible to find anyone who is long term bearish on the stock market or economy at this time. In the recent Barrons poll every single analyst expected a rise in stock prices next year and continued economic expansion.

I think they are all going to be wrong, horribly wrong. I believe next year the stock market will begin the third leg down in the secular bear market. And the global economy will tip over into the next recession that will be much worse than the last one.

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/
 
China Is Serious About Slowing Its Economy!

Sunday, December 26, 2010. 10:30 a.m.

China announced yesterday that it’s raising its interest rates for the second time in two months, in efforts to slow its economy and ward off inflation. It was another .25% increase, raising the one-year yuan loan rate to 5.8%.

Over the past year China has tried restricting loans, particularly for real estate development and speculative investing, and raised reserve requirements on its banks six times. Those efforts had very limited success.

http://www.streetsmartpost.com/2010/12/26/china-is-serious-about-slowing-its-economy/
 
robo said:
Saturday, December 25, 2010
THE BEAR WILL RETURN IN 2011

It's almost impossible to find anyone who is long term bearish on the stock market or economy at this time. In the recent Barrons poll every single analyst expected a rise in stock prices next year and continued economic expansion.

I think they are all going to be wrong, horribly wrong. I believe next year the stock market will begin the third leg down in the secular bear market. And the global economy will tip over into the next recession that will be much worse than the last one.

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/
Click to expand...

Ah yes the Obama Effect Part #...whatever. :sick:

Thats cool I like lower fuel costs. Me and I_T are going clean up in the Bear, he said so and Im happy with that. :D
 
Sunday, December 26, 2010
This Time Is Different

"This time is different". It really, really is. Trust me. It's true. Those famous 4 words of investing that should have you running the other way and that should be relegated to the trash bin of investing along with such phrases as "stocks climb a wall of worry" and the "stock market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" are as true today as any time in the past 10 years.


http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010/12/this-time-is-different.html
 
Will the f fund move lower or higher as a result of the us treasury 2 and 5 year bond sell off sell off?
 
Shouldnt it be "This time it's Different" ...something about syntax and all that English jazz.
 
Bring Me the Head of Ethan Allen!
December 26th, 2010 Note to idiots: Do not bring me the head of Ethan Allen. That is only a joke. Besides, he’s been dead for over 200 years.

But seriously…Remember CNBC’s “Town Hall” meeting with President Obama on September 20, 2010? One of the CEO’s they had on pontificating about the economy that day was Farooq Kathwari of the furniture company, Ethan Allen. He said that sales were up, and he was slowly hiring back workers that had been laid off during the recession.

http://www.trivisonno.com/
 
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