Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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Wednesday, January 12, 2011TOUGH TO BE A DISSENTER

I caught Meredith Whitney on CNBC this morning and after listening to her defend herself against the scrubs on the panel, I wondered why she bothered to even go on. It is true that some of her dire predictions last year were incorrect and you have to be prepared to face the music if you go out publicly on something and you are wrong. She did not really admit to being wrong previously, which in my view was a mistake. Sometimes you are just wrong, it is what it is. Own up to it and move on, don't give some half assed excuse as to why you were not really wrong, it takes away from your credibility.

http://iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/


http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1738688706&play=1


http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1738621708&play=1
 
It’s Lonely Being a Bear – But Better for Your Portfolio

Broad opinion stocks will move higher is a sure sign of a fall

Jan. 12, 2011, 8:52 am EST | By ETFguide.com

Anytime the broad stock market indexes (a la Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ) rally more than 80% in two-year span it shoud be concerning. I think the last time this happened was in the 1930s. So there is plenty of fodder for the bears who thinks stocks will crash. However, for some reason investors continue to expect that the sky is the limit for stocks.


http://www.investorplace.com/27846/lonely-bear-market-stock-investing-strategy/
 
When This Stock Market Signal Flashes, It's Time to Get Short
By Jeff Clark
Thursday, January 13, 2011


Periods of low volatility in the stock market are always followed by periods of high volatility. Always.

It's as certain as spring following winter.

http://www.growthstockwire.com/
 
The Mall of Dreams! Build it and the people will come, just do it and people will come, I know it for sure, People will come – Yes, they will most definitely come.....Maybe!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hU3a1PDtTYk



Property Bubble in China?
By editor|Jan 12, 2011, 12:09 PM|Author's Website

Does China’s real estate market have serious economic problems?

Bloomberg News’ Paul Allen reports exclusively today from Dongguan, China, on new evidence of what may be a property bubble in China.

http://wallstreetpit.com/56809-property-bubble-in-china
 
Rosenberg On The Illusion Of Prosperity, The 7 Biggest Downside Risks, And The Fed's Third Mandate: "Higher Equity Valuations"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2011 10:54 -0500

It is refreshing to see that an economist of David Rosenberg's statute agrees with Zero Hedge that the third mandate (we personally believe it is the one and only) of the Fed is "Higher Equity Valuations." While a faux-indignant Corker pretends to attempt to cull the Fed's powers and remove the inflation mandate, maybe someone can finally eliminate the one mandate that the Fed does not even have in its charter, yet which is the only one that it is beholden to: namely to get the Dow to 36,000. Which brings us to another point: instead of giving us his forecast on the GDP, maybe Bernanke can simply give everyone his price target for the Russell 2000. It will save everyone a lot of second-guessing effort: after all the Fed now has complete control over the stock market, and the whole frontrunning the Fed shtick is getting old.

Must read from David Rosenberg:

CREATING AN ILLUSION OF PROSPERITY


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ro...e-risks-and-feds-third-mandate-higher-equity-
 
Pack Mentality Grips Hedge Funds

By JENNY STRASBURG And SUSAN PULLIAM
Hedge funds scooped up shares of credit-card companies like big spenders on a shopping spree, making Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. among the most popular hedge-fund trades.

The bets paid off for a while. But when bad news hit in May, many funds—including 10 hedge funds run by investors connected to the well-known Tiger Management LLC—rushed for the exits, together. Shares plunged.

Hedge funds are crowding into more of the same trades these days, amplifying market swings during crises and unnerving investors. Such trading has stoked market jitters in recent months and helped to diminish the impact of corporate fundamentals on stock-market movements. Droves of small investors have reacted by pulling money from the market, questioning its stability and whether fast-moving traders are distorting prices.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704361504575552462233274960.html?mod=wsj_share_twitter
 
Saturday, January 15, 2011
HERE WE GO AGAIN

Humans, for whatever reason, tend to project the past into the future. It is an emotional flaw in our genetic makeup. It is also the reason why so many otherwise intelligent people miss the big turning points in the economy and stock market.

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/
 
Wall Street Is Lying to You, These Warning Signs Are Not
By Jeff Clark
Thursday, January 20, 2011


They say nobody rings a bell at the top of a bull market. But that's a lie.

The truth is… bells are ringing all the time. Yet no one listens.

http://www.growthstockwire.com/
 
Thursday, January 20, 2011
01/20/2011 After Bell Quick Summary

The bottom line, the short-term trend is down. I hold both long and short overnight.

Mixed signals for tomorrow. On one hand, we have so called Bullish Friday, while on the other hand, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, January Expiration Day, Dow down 10 of last 12. My best guess is at least we’ll see some weakness tomorrow morning, and still whether the intermediate-term was topped we have to wait and see.

http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
 
Top market-timer DeMark:
A BIG stock market decline is about to begin

Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Text Size:


From Bloomberg:

U.S. stocks are within a week of "a significant market top" that is likely to precede a drop of at least 11% in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, said Tom DeMark, creator of a set of market-timing indicators.

http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/6729/Stocks
 
David Rosenberg

Why this market rally will end in tears

DAVID ROSENBERG | Columnist profile

We have an incredible bear market rally on our hands. History shows that these spasms can go further than anyone thinks. But after the U.S. market staged a monstrous 80-per-cent-plus rally from its March, 2009, lows (the most pronounced bounce in such a short time since 1955), it has become seriously overextended. Meanwhile, practically every pundit is extrapolating the recent trend into the future because that is the easy thing to do.



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...arket-rally-will-end-in-tears/article1874891/
 
IS EUROPE ON THE VERGE OF A DOUBLE DIP?

20 January 2011 by Cullen Roche 9 Comments

As austerity sets in on the periphery of Europe mainly (thanks in large part to the flawed currency system) there are increasing risks that a double dip could develop. Of course, many of these nations remain mired in deep recessions or depressions and the recent bailout packages all involve harsh austerity measures that will certainly keep them on their knees for years to come. As the problems in Portugal, Spain and Italy evolve there is the potential for even greater austerity and forced pain in the EMU. Meanwhile, the core nations have largely recovered, however, there are signs of weakness.

In a recent strategy note the always excellent Michael Darda, Chief Economist of MKM Partners detailed the reasons why he is becoming increasingly concerned about a Eurozone double dip:

http://pragcap.com/is-europe-due-for-a-double-dip
 
Some good information from tradersnarrative and seabreezepartners. I think I'll read'em twice because they were so good.
 
SPX Correction Looms

By: Adam Hamilton | Fri, Jan 21, 2011 Share Print Email The US stock markets have enjoyed an awesome run since late August, with the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) up 23.7%.

Traders have earned huge profits in sectors that leverage general-stock-market gains, including commodities stocks. But as usual after any long and uninterrupted rally, complacency reigns supreme today. Such sentiment is a prime breeding ground for spawning corrections.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/19729/spx-correction-looms
 
Another excellent tutorial from Hamilton. However, I believe because of the months of internal rotations taking place the SPX is not going to retreat while the R2K already has given back over 4%. Large caps will hold the day this time around. This type of behavior fits my grand plan - and no I'm not complacent.
 
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