Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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Why the Tech Sector Is Still at a Crossroads
Imre Gams | Dec 12, 2022 | Market Minute

In the case of XLK, the parameters are straightforward:

The market is more likely to strengthen if it can eventually clear the 100- and 200-period resistance zone.

The market is more likely to sell off if it breaks below the 50-period MA.
Right now, we’re still in no-man’s land. And that’s the most dangerous area to be taking a trade.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on XLK to see which set of parameters the market is going to fulfill, and I’ll update you when that happens.

Happy trading.

Imre Gams
Analyst, Market Minute
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/why-the-tech-sector-is-still-at-a-crossroads/

 

[robo]

$VIX weekly: If this is a Bear Market then the VIX has a huge move coming next couple of years. What does it all mean.... Stay nimble, and don't fall in love with your positions.

Based on this historical data on this chart below, one would expect to see the VIX hit 50ish or higher before this Bear is done mauling investors.

 

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IWM weekly: Same here and this be uglier then the SPX. It sure looks like a Bear market.... IWM continues to trend lower below the 50 week MA.

 

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SPX weekly: The weekly making lower highs below the 50 week MA...

 

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Things that make you go hmmm...


Recession ASAP
Hartnett points out why we could see a recession within 10-12 weeks:

1. yield curve extremely inverted

2. oil crashing despite the China reopening, Russia oil price cap, SPR running "dry" and OPEC saying supply is constrained

3. bank stocks tanking recently

4. ISM manufacturing new orders down 3 straight months at time of high inventories

5. Housing looking shaky

https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Deep Thoughts For Passive Investors

jessefelder
December 7, 2022

Remember, passive investing is founded upon the idea that the markets are efficient and thus investors mirroring the index will realize the collective returns generated by the underlying businesses. But should the market become divorced from its underlying fundamentals due to the dominance of price-insensitive buying, what then should passive investors expect?

https://thefelderreport.com/2022/12/07/deep-thoughts-for-passive-investors/

 

[robo]

The euro has the biggest commercial net short position ever recorded which is probably sending a warning signal that the next several months will be tough for risk assets:

Kaplan

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/


Current Commitments of Traders Charts

 

[robo]

This little-known but spot-on economic indicator says recession and lower stock prices are all but certain

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...-stock-prices-are-all-but-certain-11670224867

 

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December 11, 2022, 4 PM

The TRUTH About What Drives Prices

 

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The Gold Move that ETF Traders Were Not Betting On
McClellan Financial Publications, Inc
Posted Dec 9, 2022

Given the big jump in gold prices since October, we should expect that public sentiment toward gold should be turning more bullish, but it is not. Investors are still avoiding these ETFs, which means that their bearishness is more firmly rooted. That is actually bullish for gold prices, because to get a top for gold prices we would expect to see investors clamoring to get into gold. They are not at that point yet, which conveys the message that gold is going to have to trend higher for a lot longer to get sentiment to change.

Dec 9, 2022 The Gold Move that ETF Traders Were Not Betting On Tom McClellan 321gold ...inc ...s

 

[robo]

LOL.... I hear Brother! I have taken some HUGE losses trading the miners. I have also missed some HUGE rallies waiting for pullbacks....

 

[tsptalk]

One thing I've learned about trading the metals, especially silver - just when you think you see it's pattern, it changes on you. The other traders are good and can get you leaning the wrong way.

So if gold looks like it's ready for a pause, it probably means it's about to go parabolic.

Not a prediction, but an observation.

Jeff Clark | Dec 9, 2022 | Market Minute

Gold looks like it could use a rest…

The price of the shiny, yellow metal has rallied nearly $200 per ounce over the past month.

And it’s probably headed much higher in the months ahead.

But for the very short term, it looks like the gold rally is on pause.

 

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I be watching the VIX too.....

SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels

29m
3:15 PM

Markets Mixed To Lower On Relatively Strong VIX
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[robo]

SPX monthly ( I use the 10 and 20 month MA's.) It still looks Bearish to me as it remains in a downtrend, so I remain flat.

 

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SPX monthly ( Last Chart): A tough year for SPX investors. (I don't use the NorthCast data for trading, but track his reports.)


Battle for Control
By TheNorthCast • Issue #150 • View online
Frustrated by all the price range chop? Don’t be, there is a perfectly valid technical explanation for it as markets find themselves confronted with a very unique combination of factors coming together all in one place.
Incidentally in the video I misspoke temporarily on the weekly chart. I said weekly 50MA, I clearly meant weekly 5 EMA, but it should be clear in context of the entire video.
Technically this is a big battle for control here and the outcome of this battle will decide whether we will still see a year end rally. Or not.

https://www.getrevue.co/profile/The...wser&utm_medium=email&utm_source=TheNorthCast

 

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Consider This Before You Buy Gold Right Now
Jeff Clark | Dec 9, 2022 | Market Minute

Gold looks like it could use a rest…

The price of the shiny, yellow metal has rallied nearly $200 per ounce over the past month.

And it’s probably headed much higher in the months ahead.

But for the very short term, it looks like the gold rally is on pause.

To see what I mean, take a look at gold’s chart…


That doesn’t mean traders should be selling gold right here. The long-term outlook remains as bullish as ever.

But folks who are looking to put new money into gold should consider waiting a few days. We may be able to get in at lower prices.

Best regards and good trading,

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/consider-this-before-you-buy-gold-right-now/

 

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XLE daily: Looking at the pre-market prices, it looks like a nice bounce for XLE at the open this morning. A tag of the 50 day MA usually brings in some investors so we shall see how this undercut plays out.

This chart is before the open and it looks like XLE will be trying to get back above the 50 day MA this morning. I will be watching and I'm flat again.....

 

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I don't use HYG as a trading indicator, but some traders do. We shall see how this indicator plays out the rest of December... HYG is the solid black line on my chart.


Dec 8, 2022
This “Flag” Is a Ticking Time Bomb for Market Breakdown

If HYG reverses course, then it’s likely stocks will fall as well.

Before I show you a price chart of HYG, I want to stress that the bearish pattern I’ve spotted isn’t complete yet.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/this-flag-is-a-ticking-time-bomb-for-market-breakdown/

 

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"If you are a serious trader"

SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels

2h
If you are a serious trader....

Timing isn't everything....

It's the ONLY thing.

We have opened this article to non-subs.

https://sevensentinels.com/let-me-count-the-ways/


How do we know that the markets are in a downtrend? “Let me count the ways.”
As of TODAY:

NYMO is now negative

NYSI (NYSE Summation Index) is Declining

The NYMO Daily Sentinel produced a Sell Signal

NAMO is negative

NASI (NASDAQ Summation Index) is Declining

The NAMO Daily Sentinel had a Sell Signal

The LOLR Sentinels made a Downtrend Signal

 

[robo]

When will the FED pivot and start lowering again?

SPX/FED rates month chart:


Will Santa Bring a Fed Pivot?
Clint Brewer | Dec 7, 2022 | Market Minute |


Pivots Signal a Damaged Economy
The Fed is tasked with two jobs: keep prices stable and people employed.

Achieving both requires a balancing act with interest rates to keep the economy at the right speed.

But unfortunately, the Fed tends to push rates too far in either direction. Those extreme moves create boom-and-bust cycles for the economy… Like slashing overnight rates to zero in the wake of the pandemic.

Now we’ve seen four consecutive 0.75% hikes – a truly unprecedented rate.

And pivoting is historically a bad signal because it follows the stark realization by Fed officials that they’ve pushed things too far and took the economy to the brink.

But by then, it’s too late.

Take another look at the federal funds rates in the chart below, this time with recessions shown in the grey shaded areas. Pivots happened before the last three recessions hit…

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/will-santa-bring-a-fed-pivot/