Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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tsptalk said:
Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why

"Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast."
Click to expand...

OK, this article is nothing but fear. Buffet's holdings in P&G make up less than 2% of B-H holdings. Buffet still owns $4 Billion in shares of P&G. Buffet sold Intel in 2012 for a 25% profit.

The Soros information is from 2012 as well.

You sure this isn't an advertisement to sell books?
 
GOT GOLD!

Another guy that could just be selling his book, but he sure brings up lots of conversations when it's mentioned. It's fun reading comments from the Gold Bugs.....

December 24, 2013

Richard Russell - Global Shock & Massive Wealth Destruction

I believe that coming up we are going to see a fourth devaluation of the dollar against gold. By doing this the US Treasury will overnight have a vastly greater supply of wealth compared with its debt, putting its finances in a much healthier state.

How high might the US re-set the official price of gold? You pick a number -- $5,000, $10,000 or $50,000, but the number should be high enough so that the price of gold won't have to be re-set again in a hurry.


My Blog
 
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What Happens When You Have to Admit the Gold’s Not There-Eric Sprott
By Greg Hunter On December 22, 2013

Money manager Eric Sprott says the economy is going to tank in 2014. Sprott, who has $8 billion under management, contends, “We have created a situation, yet again, where we pulled demand forward and added debt to everyone’s balance sheet.” Another drag is going to be health care costs and rising interest rates. According to Sprott, “I am sitting here looking at Obama Care and rising interest rates and thinking where are we going to be getting all of this growth that is non-existent. So, I don’t see a strong recovery.”

Eric Sprott: Day of Reckoning is Coming
 
Kaplan has started and I will be soon....


This is special intraday update #1956b for Tuesday late morning, December 24, 2013.


I bought HDGE at 12.89 using 0.10% of my net worth, which I would rate as a 7 on a scale of 0 through 10. HDGE is an actively managed fund of pure U.S. equity short positions, where both fund managers frequently make changes to their selections and have lengthy experience with short selling. The huge inflows into general equity funds during 2013, combined with a rising VIX from a six-year bottom since March 14, 2013 and other reliable signals of a dangerous overvaluation for the overall U.S. stock market, make it timely to buy HDGE with the primary intention of selling it for a long-term capital gain at much higher prices in another two or three years.

True Contrarian


I'm Long GDX GDXJ TSP - G Fund

Short-term trading - long JNUG
 
"NO ONE" can know for sure if a correction is coming or how much higher the major indexes could go. However, it's all about Risk Management going forward as key indicators are telling us it's time to REDUCE RISK in our retirement accounts. Having, or putting 100% in the S Fund for a short-term trade or move is something you should think about, and is a very high risk trade even when the market is cheap, and it's not now.

Good trading.


Wednesday, December 25, 2013

ANOTHER BUBBLE LOOKING FOR A PIN

Well the Fed in it's infinite wisdom has gone and done it again. They've created another bubble. Arguably the 6th in the last 13 years (tech, real estate, credit, bond, oil, and now stocks again, and an echo bubble in housing). If one steps back far enough they can see what's really happening. The Fed has now manufactured a parabolic move in the stock market. Much more aggressive (and thus even more unsustainable) than either the 2000 or 2007 tops.


Smart Money Tracker: ANOTHER BUBBLE LOOKING FOR A PIN
 
Robo,

I don't suspose you follow Don Hays or Bob Brinker these days. I like that word parabolic and I plan to torque it all the way. History tells us that a 10% or greater correction comes around every once each 2 years, and we can count on three consolidations of 5% over the same period. I'll just ride right over any consolidations in 2014 - and when everyone is looking for a correction it may not happen. I'm thinking that the risk going forward holds great potential.
 
Big Bull,

I don't get Bob or Don these days, and use other indicators for taking long positions in the general stock market. However, you could be correct, and the markets could head much higher, but the data I use for Risk Management tells me it's time to add GDX GDXJ SLV and a few others you probably own and reduced positions of SPY and IWM and the general stock market. I went into the G Fund and Stable Value Funds way to early this year, but I'm always early. I hope we keep heading higher for those that are long, but it's time to rotate some of those Wall-Flowers Brotherman, and do it quick....Buy some more GDX and GDXJ and SLV or SIL. Plenty of folks will disagree with my positions and I'm always early, but I have a system and I follow it.

I hope your Xmas went well.
 
At year end, a solid equity buy signal is when we see a company's bonds outperforming Credit tends to lead equities.
In many cases 40% to 60% of a company's capital structure lies in its bonds or debt, so why would you just focus on the stock price?

You're only seeing half the playing field! In many of the gold miners such as Newmont (NEM), coal names such as Peabody Energy (BTU), and the homebuilder Hovnanian (HOV), the credit is substantially outperforming the underlying equity.

Simply put, the company's bonds are doing much better than the stocks. This is a positive buy signal for the equity. Every year in December we have a model that searches for these dislocations in value. We look at the 5-year credit default swaps of companies and compare their performance relative to the company's stock price.
In many cases, exceptional investment opportunities arise when we spot the cheapest part of the company to own.
For example, Peabody's 5-year credit default swaps [CDS] are 140bps tighter since their worst levels this summer but the stock price is 15% lower.

Translation: investors love the credit but hate the equity. Someone is very wrong; it's likely the equity is mispriced.
(Credit Default Swaps [CDS] are a form of insurance against default of a company--the lower the bps spread, the stronger the credit profile.)
--Larry McDonald, "Let Fear Be Your Friend in the Market", Information for the World's Business Leaders - Forbes.com, December 6, 2013.



Let Fear Be Your Friend in the Market - Forbes


Long GDX GDXJ TSP G-Fund

Short-term trading JNUG

JNUG: Summary for Direxion Daily Junior Gold Mine- Yahoo! Finance
 
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