Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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"Looks like that video was taken on Thursday, the GDXJ closed higher than the upper trend line on his falling wedge on Friday"

CrabClaw,


I have Morris' service, but never take trades off his data. NO ONE knows for sure when the bottom will be in for the miners, but we are much closer now then we were a year ago when Gold Bugs were telling us to Buy-Buy-Buy. I'm going to buy some NUGT for a short-term trade soon, but I want to see if the crooks can run the stops of 1180 for Gold. If they run the stops at 1180 we could get a nasty move down, and I will buy with all my remaining cash in my trading account. I will hold my JNUG GDX GDXJ no matter how much lower we go for now, but will add tranches with weakness. His current videos (yesterday) are for his subs, but nothing has changed for gold or the miners....he is bullish and thinks we should add if we head lower. His current videos are on the stock market, and he recommends reducing all positions in the general stock market. He used the DOW in the video...sell-sell-sell.

Good trading to you next week. I'm a full time trader now that I'm retired, and hang out in Gary Savage's chat room daily. There are some very smart folks/traders that post there. I think for investors this site is one of the Best Sites out there, and the paid services here are better then some I have paid much more for. I stopped posting here due to health reasons, but now I'm doing much better.


It's to early to know, but it's possible the DCL and the YCL are in....However, it could just be another Bull-Trap.....as you said, We shall see.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gdx
 
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robo said:
I think for investors this site is one of the Best Sites out there, and the paid services here are better then some I have paid much more for. I stopped posting here due to health reasons, but now I'm doing much better.

GDX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
Click to expand...

Glad you are on the upswing health wise, always a good thing :)

I agree with your thoughts on this site and it's premium services; some good folks and excellent services here.
 
Sunday, December 29, 2013

BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS: ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITIES

Last week I wrote an article on why I think the bull market in stocks is coming to an end. As usual the retail public is chasing a move that is extremely mature and ripe to reverse assuming that the trend will continue. Amateurs always make this mistake at tops ...and bottoms. Their emotions tell them the move will continue indefinitely. It never does.

As you can see in this next chart, dumb money traders are becoming more and more confident the further this parabolic move progresses. Professional traders, on the other hand, get more and more nervous as the market stretches further and further above the mean.


Smart Money Tracker
 
December 30, 2013
Estimating the Risk of a Market Crash

As I noted a few weeks ago “The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak. There’s no calling the top, and most of the signals that have been most historically useful for that purpose have been blazing red since late-2011.” My impression remains that the downside risks for the market have been deferred, not eliminated, and that they will be worse for the wait.



Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Estimating the Risk of a Market Crash - December 30, 2013
 
robo said:
December 30, 2013
Estimating the Risk of a Market Crash

As I noted a few weeks ago “The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak. There’s no calling the top, and most of the signals that have been most historically useful for that purpose have been blazing red since late-2011.” My impression remains that the downside risks for the market have been deferred, not eliminated, and that they will be worse for the wait.



Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Estimating the Risk of a Market Crash - December 30, 2013
Click to expand...


I resemble that remark, according to my closer tsp friends here, (as in idiot before). prolly because I've been following Hussman for quite awhile now. :o But as long as I don't end up the greater fool with egg on my face when the black swans start dropping eggs (they will), I'm okay with that-up to a point. Hussman doesn't stay completely out of the market either, just well hedged and adjusts according to level of risk in the market. Me, I need to work on understanding how to set stops in the brokerage accounts.
 
alevin,

It's all about Risk Management and following your system. I sold early this year also, but I don't do - "overvalued, overbought, overbullish", markets. What I do is invest and trade in undervalued, oversold, and hated sectors. Now, buying early can also be costly in those sectors, but position size is your Risk Management. All those making 100% moves in a Bull Market in their TSP accounts look very smart now because the Bull corrects all mistakes. But when in a Bear Market it's a different story. ANYONE making 100% short-term trades in there TSP accounts will find out the hard way when the next Bear starts. Sure, I make High Risk Trades....but not with my TSP/Retirement money. You have done the right thing in my opinion. You should NEVER make a 100% short-term trade in your TSP account into stocks.

I'm in the G Fund and will stay there no matter how much higher the major indexes go. Proper Risk Management wins in the end thru a complete cycle and the Bear is not done. Now, I could be wrong, but being in the G Fund based on my Risk Management data is a good thing. If the set-up is there I would take a position in stocks, but not now. I'm a True Contrarian for sure when investing, and have plenty of scares trying to catch lots of falling knives! The Big Bull (Birchtree) could be correct and the S&P will head much higher, but it will do it with-out me.

Good luck in 2014....


From Kaplan:

Each strategy has its positive and negative aspects. With a contrarian approach, buying undesired securities and selling wildly desired ones will consistently make above-average profits in the long run. In the short run, however, a multi-year extreme could become a multi-decade extreme and cause you to be behind. Other times, you might be waiting for a multi-decade extreme and it won't become that exaggerated, so you'll miss the trade entirely. This is all part of what will happen with any given method: there will be times when it will work brilliantly and other times that it will produce subpar results. It is important to stick with whatever method you use, constantly making necessary adjustments, but not making radical changes especially if those changes are in response to the market's behavior. Those equity bears who recently turned bullish, or gold analysts who recently adopted much more bearish short-term targets, aren't adjusting their actions to respond to market behavior--they're emotionally surrendering because an especially extended trend has caused them to become discouraged and to thereby abandon their core investing principles. Having the persistence to stick with a proven method and the discipline to use restraint and prudence at all times are by far the most important attributes which characterize all traders who are successful in the long run. You can be brilliant from time to time or not, as you choose, but being steadfast and cautious is far more important.

True Contrarian
 
I added some shares of NUGT for a short-term trade.

12/30/2013 9:37:56 AM ET NUGT Bought NUGT @ $27.0353 Executed
 
alevin said:
I resemble that remark, according to my closer tsp friends here, (as in idiot before). prolly because I've been following Hussman for quite awhile now. :o But as long as I don't end up the greater fool with egg on my face when the black swans start dropping eggs (they will), I'm okay with that-up to a point. Hussman doesn't stay completely out of the market either, just well hedged and adjusts according to level of risk in the market. Me, I need to work on understanding how to set stops in the brokerage accounts.
Click to expand...

oh alevin, what unfortunate timing for you, i've already finished my own year-end financial and psycho analysis so you're next.

you are a saver, not a trader. i know this because, well, because you don't ever trade. i know, i know, but you're going to trade, just as soon as the perfect trade reveals itself after all the research confirms that there is no way to lose on the trade. that's ok though, because to some the prospect of the slowly predicably declining value of cash far outweighs any potential losses inherent in taking a flyer. we all is what we is and there's nothing wrong with that.

i would bet, however, that in your employment trade you are a researcher not a decision maker. but you believe strongly that the proper decisions will be made just as soon as complete research is provided. that's the only way decisions are made after all, nobody get going off all half cocked and all. the problem is that research is never finished, otherwise we would all just stop learning once the answer was known, and that's no way to live.

me? i'm neither a researcher or a decision maker. i'm just labor, the help. but it occurs to me leaning on my shovel over here that youns all researchers and decision makers would benefit by pooping or getting off the pot sometimes. at least that way somebody could come along and clean it.

happy new year, and good luck with that conundrum.
 
CrabClaw said:
NUGT Daily, look at those bollinger bands!

View attachment 26461
Click to expand...


The miners will do well for a trade if gold can get back above 1210 today, and we need the dollar weakness to continue. The Bears would love to run the stops at 1180 on gold, and if they do the miners will probably make new lows. If that happens I will be adding shares, but will take a real beat-down on my current positions.


Some more charts from another trader.


http://stockcharts.com/public/3267041

Good luck on your trade.
 
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Harry Dent is making a bold prediction for 2014: Dow 10,000. Said it on Fox Business this morning. Also says gold will rise in the short-term, but then go to $700 by year end.

The problem is, he made the same kind of prediction for 2012.

"On Dec. 30, 2011, financial guru Harry Dent was quoted in Bloomberg making a bold prediction: In 2012, the S&P 500 stock index of America's biggest companies would see its value cut in half, or at the very least, fall 30 percent." [More]

And the same story for 2013... Harry Dent predicts global economic crash in 2013 - YouTube


The story basically talks about the big predictions are nothing but attention grabbers...

Pundit Predictions: How Accurate Are the 'Pros' Bold Guesses? - DailyFinance


To be fair, he says the "crash" could come by the end 2015.
 
robo said:
The miners will do well for a trade if gold can get back above 1210 today, and we need the dollar weakness to continue. The Bears would love to run the stops at 1180 on gold, and if they do the miners will probably make new lows. If that happens I will be adding shares, but will take a real beat-down on my current positions.
Click to expand...

looks like it wants to collapse, bummer :(
 
CrabClaw said:
looks like it wants to collapse, bummer :(
Click to expand...


Yeah - my current positions are not doing well today, but I'm not selling them. I added some more NUGT, but it does look like the Bears want those stops at 1180, or this still could be tax selling....who can say for sure.... We could see another beat-down tomorrow morning, and if they take out 1180, that will not be good in the short-term.


I'll add some more at the close if we hit the low 25.00's

12/30/2013 3:22:07 PM ET NUGT Bought NUGT @ $26.25 Executed

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NUGT


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jnug
 
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Adding the miners......


GDX: Summary for Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF- Yahoo! Finance

GDXJ: Summary for Market Vectors Junior Gold Mine- Yahoo! Finance


This is special intraday update #1958b for Monday after-hours, December 30, 2013.


I bought GDX at 20.6472 just before the close using 0.12% of my net worth, which I would rate as a 9 on a scale of 0 through 10. GDX is a fund of large- and mid-cap gold mining shares which has been among the weakest subsectors since the late summer of 2011 and is one of the biggest losers of 2013. Since the U.S. employment report was released at 8:30 a.m. on December 6, 2013, GDX has formed several higher lows (as has its sister junior fund GDXJ), while gold bullion has dropped below 1200 dollars several times since then including today. The most unpopular securities almost always end up becoming the top performers, and this is especially true whenever there are multi-decade extremes of fund outflows, insider buying, discounts to net asset value, and media bearishness which we have experienced during the past several months, combined with the lowest absolute valuations since November 2008. GDXJ is a viable alternative with similar characteristics which has lost even more in percentage terms during the past three years and which could gain even more in the upcoming year. Whether people are selling gold mining shares for tax losses or for other illogical reasons, it makes sense to take advantage of such opportunities especially when many traders perceive that they will persist indefinitely. My ladder of good-until-canceled orders for GDX continues at 19.99, but I may add additional market orders if circumstances appear to justify taking such action.

True Contrarian
 
"looks like it wants to collapse, bummer"


CrabClaw,

My plan is to double my money on this trade, and that's after the decay for JNUG and NUGT. Most traders should not be trading NUGT or JNUG, but since you are, NUGT could easily be at 40.00 plus in the next few months. We want to catch the next DCL and YCL and that requires us to be early Brotherman. I agree with BT on this one...with the gain comes some pain....

Don't get stopped out at these levels if you are using stops....We are close in my opinion to a nice rip up, but that doesn't mean we can't sell-off some more.
 
Morning Coffee with Quad G 12-30-13

December 30, 2013 by Quad G


Gold Miners – I think they are very close to a potential major bottom inside the next few weeks. The Long Term HUI:GOLD ratio has a few bullish indications:

BLOG
 
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