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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
SPX daily: The SPX remains above the 10 dma. We shall see ii it can hold now that the election is over. I'm still short XLE:
When is it time to short?
The question now is if this is the 8th or the 16th of August - the difference could be monumental for the survival of a short position. The latest data from the various prime brokerage desks we trade with indicates that we are very close to the end of the bounce - and that is what this email examines. From a trading perspective we still would want to see a test of 4100 to get involved in a pure delta 1 short - and are happy for now with our VIX logic from yesterday. There is more often than not a little extra juice left to squeeze in moves like these and we need to be surgical in terms of implementation. Stay tuned.
https://themarketear.com/
When is it time to short?
The question now is if this is the 8th or the 16th of August - the difference could be monumental for the survival of a short position. The latest data from the various prime brokerage desks we trade with indicates that we are very close to the end of the bounce - and that is what this email examines. From a trading perspective we still would want to see a test of 4100 to get involved in a pure delta 1 short - and are happy for now with our VIX logic from yesterday. There is more often than not a little extra juice left to squeeze in moves like these and we need to be surgical in terms of implementation. Stay tuned.
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
We shall see how it plays out! In my opinion - the gap between the SPX and the 200 month MA is going to get much closer in the months ahead.
SevenSentinels Retweeted
Mac10
@SuburbanDrone
·
5h
Those who are pounding the table constantly on Fed pivot should know that when the Fed pivoted in Y2K, the Nasdaq lost most of its value.
And when they pivoted in 2007, the housing bubble imploded.
Today's bulls are all waiting for the melt-up to begin.
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
SevenSentinels Retweeted
Mac10
@SuburbanDrone
·
5h
Those who are pounding the table constantly on Fed pivot should know that when the Fed pivoted in Y2K, the Nasdaq lost most of its value.
And when they pivoted in 2007, the housing bubble imploded.
Today's bulls are all waiting for the melt-up to begin.
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
XLE daily: Long ERY - A short-term 2X short trade for XLE. I don't hold leveraged positions very long..... Mainly for day-trades......
XLE is BT the 10 dma, and it looks like it might hold..... I look for oil and energy shares to come down now that the election is over. The same goes for stocks.
SevenSentinels Retweeted
CNBC
@CNBC
'Big Short' Michael Burry on his current positioning: 'You have no idea how short I am'
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1592905374797074437?cxt=HHwWisC4mfa_kZssAAAA
XLE is BT the 10 dma, and it looks like it might hold..... I look for oil and energy shares to come down now that the election is over. The same goes for stocks.
SevenSentinels Retweeted
CNBC
@CNBC
'Big Short' Michael Burry on his current positioning: 'You have no idea how short I am'
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1592905374797074437?cxt=HHwWisC4mfa_kZssAAAA
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
VIX daily chart: I be warching the action too.....
We are considering VIX hedges for the first time since August
Everything that is "protection" has come down hard and we are starting to get interested. To go outright short cash equities here is not a trade for us - we would want to see an attack and possible overshoot of the 4100 level - but volatility is different. Let's examine.
https://www.zerohedge.com/premium?u...campaign=premium&utm_content=tme_website_link
We are considering VIX hedges for the first time since August
Everything that is "protection" has come down hard and we are starting to get interested. To go outright short cash equities here is not a trade for us - we would want to see an attack and possible overshoot of the 4100 level - but volatility is different. Let's examine.
https://www.zerohedge.com/premium?u...campaign=premium&utm_content=tme_website_link
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
We have never had more insider selling of energy shares in their entire history.
XLE, an exchange-traded fund of large-cap energy shares, has experienced intense insider selling of all of its top components throughout November 2022. XLE is likely to lose half of its value within a year so I have been gradually selling it short at 93 and above.
Kalplan
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
XLE, an exchange-traded fund of large-cap energy shares, has experienced intense insider selling of all of its top components throughout November 2022. XLE is likely to lose half of its value within a year so I have been gradually selling it short at 93 and above.
Kalplan
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Mark Hulbert
Curb your enthusiasm — Thursday’s explosive rally in stocks likely means the bear market is alive and well
Most big daily jumps occur during bear markets
The bottom line? Big daily rallies don’t often mean what you think they do. So check your enthusiasm.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...the-bear-market-is-alive-and-well-11668113312
Curb your enthusiasm — Thursday’s explosive rally in stocks likely means the bear market is alive and well
Most big daily jumps occur during bear markets
The bottom line? Big daily rallies don’t often mean what you think they do. So check your enthusiasm.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...the-bear-market-is-alive-and-well-11668113312
robo
Well-known member
Some PPI charts: The Fed helped in the spike based on this data. Now can they fix it? Low rates and a huge increase in their balance sheet. It did create lots of jobs....
Bottom Line: As a general rule..... Rates go up and the market and PPI go down. In my opinion the Fed still has work to d..... We shall see how it plays out.
Bottom Line: As a general rule..... Rates go up and the market and PPI go down. In my opinion the Fed still has work to d..... We shall see how it plays out.
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robo
Well-known member
We shall see how it plays outs
Bearish Reversal
Stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high on Monday but then went on to print a bearish reversal.
A new on day 22 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks currently being in a daily uptrend. However, stocks are now stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. A break below the 3911.79 level can be used as a stop. If stocks find support at the rising 10 day MA and break back above the 3911.79 level, then that could be used to go long once again.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/11/14/bearish-reversal-6/
Bearish Reversal
Stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high on Monday but then went on to print a bearish reversal.
A new on day 22 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks currently being in a daily uptrend. However, stocks are now stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. A break below the 3911.79 level can be used as a stop. If stocks find support at the rising 10 day MA and break back above the 3911.79 level, then that could be used to go long once again.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/11/14/bearish-reversal-6/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
SPX/VIX daily charts: Waiting on the PPI numbers to be announced tomorrow morning. I have a few small positions. The VIX could fill the gap or maybe make a higher low. We shall see how it plays out. Giving the edge to the Bulls.
Still watching XLE for a setup to short.....
Still watching XLE for a setup to short.....
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Shorts carried out on stretchers in a pic
Great chart via Goldman's Flood that needs little additional commenting. Shorts have evaporated quickly and are at March 2020 lows according to him
https://themarketear.com/
Great chart via Goldman's Flood that needs little additional commenting. Shorts have evaporated quickly and are at March 2020 lows according to him
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Two charts to keep the bears up at night
BofA "Bull & Bear" remains at 0.0 (chart 1). Nasdaq YoY performance in line with prior major downturns (chart 2).
https://themarketear.com/posts/cFFfq4RN0R
BofA "Bull & Bear" remains at 0.0 (chart 1). Nasdaq YoY performance in line with prior major downturns (chart 2).
https://themarketear.com/posts/cFFfq4RN0R
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Put puke going extreme
Put call ratio continues collapsing. The contrarian part of this indicator played out well.Things are much less clear from here...
https://themarketear.com/posts/ckhL-Gkh9t
Put call ratio continues collapsing. The contrarian part of this indicator played out well.Things are much less clear from here...
https://themarketear.com/posts/ckhL-Gkh9t
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
VIX knew
One of our main topics over past weeks has been the muted VIX. The crowd has been talking the bearish talk, but VIX started signalling less fear some 2 weeks ago, especially as VIX fell despite the SPX retracing that last move before the shock therapy yesterday. Last time VIX was here, SPX traded at 4150....although that is not how vol trading works, but people will start pushing this logic soon.
One of our main topics over past weeks has been the muted VIX. The crowd has been talking the bearish talk, but VIX started signalling less fear some 2 weeks ago, especially as VIX fell despite the SPX retracing that last move before the shock therapy yesterday. Last time VIX was here, SPX traded at 4150....although that is not how vol trading works, but people will start pushing this logic soon.
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
As I have pointed out many times before: I'm waiting to see if lower highs for SPX and higher lows for VIX continues.
VIX daily and higher lows. Topping pattern almost complete. Waiting to see if the VIX will make a higher low. If so we are getting closer to the next top. Looking to start shorting XLE.
VIX daily and higher lows. Topping pattern almost complete. Waiting to see if the VIX will make a higher low. If so we are getting closer to the next top. Looking to start shorting XLE.
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robo
Well-known member
Bear Crush
#146・ NOV 10, 2022
Bear Crush
By TheNorthCast • Issue #146 • View online
Today’s CPI report resulted in massive reversals in dollar and yields and produced the biggest equity rally of 2022 crushing bears. Game changer?
My perspective, some context and of course charts:
https://www.getrevue.co/profile/The...wser&utm_medium=email&utm_source=TheNorthCast
#146・ NOV 10, 2022
Bear Crush
By TheNorthCast • Issue #146 • View online
Today’s CPI report resulted in massive reversals in dollar and yields and produced the biggest equity rally of 2022 crushing bears. Game changer?
My perspective, some context and of course charts:
https://www.getrevue.co/profile/The...wser&utm_medium=email&utm_source=TheNorthCast
robo
Well-known member
Put puke - back with a vengeance
"Never buy protection when you must..." is playing out again and now all those expensive puts must be sold. This leads to the feedback loop of people reaching the conclusion "hedges only cost money", so when the set up to buy protection becomes attractive again, the majority of people will have given up on hedges...
"Never buy protection when you must..." is playing out again and now all those expensive puts must be sold. This leads to the feedback loop of people reaching the conclusion "hedges only cost money", so when the set up to buy protection becomes attractive again, the majority of people will have given up on hedges...
