Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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CrabClaw said:
Sold 2/3 of my nugt for 10.5% gain

Wanted to let it ride but have to stick to plan.
Click to expand...

I agree Brotherman.....this is trading not investing. Another trade will be coming soon! I have been thinking about it all morning ( it's sure nice to be retired) and I'm probably going to sell another 1000 shares of my JNUG.

Sold some more..

Good trading.


1/2/2014 1:31:57 PM ET JNUG Sold 100 JNUG @ $18.01 Executed
1/2/2014 1:31:57 PM ET JNUG Sold 58 JNUG @ $18.01 Executed
1/2/2014 1:31:48 PM ET JNUG Sold 100 JNUG @ $18.01 Executed
1/2/2014 1:31:48 PM ET JNUG Sold 65 JNUG @ $18.01 Executed
1/2/2014 1:31:48 PM ET JNUG Sold 65 JNUG @ $18.01 Executed
1/2/2014 1:31:46 PM ET JNUG Sold 100 JNUG @ $18.01 Executed
1/2/2014 1:31:37 PM ET JNUG Sold 131 JNUG @ $17.98 Executed
1/2/2014 1:31:37 PM ET JNUG Sold 138 JNUG @ $17.98 Executed
1/2/2014 1:31:37 PM ET JNUG Sold 100 JNUG @ $17.98 Executed
1/2/2014 1:31:37 PM ET JNUG Sold 131 JNUG @ $17.98 Executed
 
CrabClaw said:
Sold 2/3 of my nugt for 10.5% gain

Wanted to let it ride but have to stick to plan.
Click to expand...

CrabClaw,

I'm taking some more money off the table.

A nice trade to start out the new year.....they are not always winners that's for sure! I'll be waiting for the next set-up, but I still have some JNUG.

Portfolio G/L ($|%): 37.60%

1/2/2014 1:54:25 PM ET JNUG Sold 569 JNUG @ $18.3 Executed
1/2/2014 1:45:44 PM ET JNUG Sold 100 JNUG @ $18.25 Executed
1/2/2014 1:45:44 PM ET JNUG Sold 100 JNUG @ $18.25 Executed
1/2/2014 1:45:44 PM ET JNUG Sold 136 JNUG @ $18.25 Executed
1/2/2014 1:45:44 PM ET JNUG Sold 64 JNUG @ $18.25 Executed
1/2/2014 1:45:44 PM ET JNUG Sold 100 JNUG @ $18.25 Executed
 
Nobody even reads Bob anymore....

Historic Optimism in the Stock Market - What Does it Mean?

How do you know when the market is getting ready for a change? This quote from Bob Prechter's best-selling book, Conquer the Crash, looks at investor psychology at extremes in the markets:


The engine of high stock market valuation is widely shared optimism. The greater the degree of the advance that is ending, the greater the optimism at its peak. Optimism also tends to remain strong in the early stages of a bear market ...

Historic Optimism in the Stock Market - What Does it Mean? | Elliott Wave International | Safehaven.com
 
Time to read over Adam's comments again.....


SPX Topping Valuations 2

By: Adam Hamilton | Fri, Nov 15, 2013

Stock investing is about buying low then selling high, not about buying high then hoping for a greater fool to come along later. Stocks are absolutely expensive today in hard trailing P/E terms, despite Wall Street's attempts to rationalize this with fictional forward P/Es. The only cheap investments today are the alternatives that have been shunned during 2013's stock-market levitation. They have great potential to soar.

SPX Topping Valuations 2 | Adam Hamilton | Safehaven.com
 
It would be nice to see these gaps get filled quickly.....I will be watching the miners to see if that happens. We could be very close to the start of a multi-month rally.... and It's very possible it's already started..... I will hold GDX and GDXJ as a core position trade and still short-term trade JNUG and NUGT. I will be trying to catch cycle tops/bottoms ( this could be one) and some up waves using 3X indexes for short-term trading.

Good luck if you are trading.....



We currently have a higher low which is looking pretty darn good so far.....again, I would sure like to see the gaps get filled before the next big move up.


GDX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

GDXJ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
 
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Is oil getting ready for another move up? Is this just a higher low? Is this maybe just a repeat of the August low before a multi-month rally up.....What will a rally in oil do to the GDP numbers and Joe's spending cash.....I'll be watching all of this for sure.....I sure don't know, but we will find out soon.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WTI
 
Kaplan remains Bearish on TSP stock funds.


This is special intraday update #1960b for Friday morning, January 3, 2014.


I bought HDGE at 12.79 using 0.10% of my net worth, which I would rate as a 7 on a scale of 0 through 10. Most investors are underestimating the possibility that many U.S. equity indices will soon complete or have already completed important historic peaks as we transition to what will eventually almost surely become a severe U.S. general equity bear market. The early stages of such a transition are often ignored because they are usually relatively mild, as is likely to be the case for most of 2014. During the 2007-2009 bear market, investors in August 2008 were still blissfully unconcerned about the possibility of a dramatic downtrend. Some other short choices may be superior, but selling short directly doesn't generally permit you to qualify for a long-term capital gain and would not be permitted in retirement and other all-cash accounts.

http://advisorshares.com/fund/hdge?gclid=CJW558So4rsCFTRo7Aod-SIAgQ

True Contrarian
 
CrabClaw said:
Nicely done!
Click to expand...

CrabClaw,

Thanks. I left money on the table, but as you know trading the miners is tough. I'm waiting to see if the gap fills for gold and the miners, and will take another trade soon. If the low is forming for gold and the miners we should be able to make a nice chunk of money trading the miners this next cycle. It sure looks like a new cycle is just getting started. It will be a multi-month rally, with plenty of whipsaws, but we will do well playing the long side.

Good trading.
 
Friday, January 3, 2014 Gold working higher



Gold is experiencing what in trader slang is known as a "MELTUP". It continues to work higher but on extremely low volume and without much fanfare - very slow and steady.

Trader Dan's Market Views
 
CrabClaw said:
I was thinking the same thing...
Click to expand...

I'm waiting for the next set-up and will buy JNUG or NUGT for a short-term trade. I sure don't mind paying more....I'll be short-term trading the miners for many months to come if this is the start of a new cycle. Buy the dips and sell the rips...that's what 3X indexes are for.... I will also be adding to my position trade...GDX and GDXJ.

The gap might not fill and we could just move sideways, but the Boyz sure like to fill those gaps.....so I wait.


Part of a comment from Kaplan a few minutes ago:

This is special intraday update #1960c for Friday afternoon, January 3, 2014.

As I frequently did in the early spring of 2012, I am adding another HDGE order at 12.79, at which price I was filled earlier this week and again earlier today, because I believe that we are transitioning to a major bear market for many U.S. equity sectors. I am not certain that this trade will be profitable in the short run, but I feel confident that it will be wildly profitable within two or three years. Amateurs keep buying into all early-day rebounds which is negative intraday behavior. Meanwhile, amateurs kept selling mining assets and their shares throughout December 2013 especially early each trading day, which may have appeared initially to be intelligent but will prove in retrospect to have been unloading just before major rallies in these securities.


http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
 
Ok Jeff, but I have been hearing this for months.

By: Jeff Clark | Fri, Jan 3, 2014

New Trend Guarantees Higher Gold Prices

If you're like me, you've bought gold due to the money printing policies of most developed countries and the effect those policies will have on the future purchasing power of our paper money. Probably also because there's no viable way for governments to escape the consequences of all the debt they've piled up. And maybe because politicians can't be trusted to formulate a realistic strategy to avoid any number of monetary, fiscal, or economic crises going forward.

New Trend Guarantees Higher Gold Prices | Jeff Clark | Safehaven.com


I do not trade or own gold, but as gold moves so goes the miners....and I trade them.
 
This time it will probably be different......maybe!


January 2, 2014

Traders that are most consistently useful as contrary indicators have pushed their optimism to an extreme rarely seen in 27 years.

SentimenTrader Home


NAAIM Survey of Managers | The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM


Alan has been crying wolf for a very long time.


HOME OF "PICTURES OF A STOCK MARKET MANIA"
December 31, 2013



"Never before in stock market history have investors been as exposed to downside risk as they are now. Given the length of time extreme risk has been confronted without serious consequence, we can infer fund managers are now completely oblivious to the risks of a bear market, let alone the possibility of a worst case scenario such as the two previous burst bubbles in which stock prices were cut in half."


Decision Point®: CrossCurrents -- Alan Newman
 
tsptalk said:
No comment, but it belongs here in the Bear Cave...
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Yeah - I would say so.....The thing is - the VIX is telling us that very few investors are even concerned about a correction not alone a Bear Market. Folks are now trained/conditioned to buy the dip and buying the dip in a Bear other then a short-term trade can get ugly pretty quick . I learned some hard lessons in 2000 / 2008 and 2009 trading and buying the freaking dip.

In a Bull Market we all look smart buying the dip, because the Bull saves us, but as you know a Bear is another story. Maybe none of this matters and the market will just keeping heading higher forever, but other then short-term moves my money will remain in the G Fund for 2014.... We could get some great trading ops the next few years for those of us willing to take quick trades, but it will be costly for many that try moving 100% of their money in and out of stock indexes in TSP. That's if we really are close to a new bear, and that's STBD.

I have plenty of cuts from 2000 and 2008 Bears to prove it, and I hope that I will be more disciplined the next Bear Market...."Whenever it shows it Ugly Head"....and I have NO IDEA when it will happen for sure or if it will happen, but I know it's coming.


Tom,

Buy a few shares of GDXJ for position trade...It will be a winner in my opinion in 2014.
 
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