Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

The inverted yield curve at around 18 months now has never been wrong. It has to be different this time or we are getting closer. The world and our government can't get much done either. Blame who you want, but the inverted yield data is sending out a warning signal. Don't buy to much if you are BTDs!

 

[robo]

SPX monthly: The next Bear Market, based on the historical data, indicates a tag of the 200 month MA s/b close to the bottom. That is when the remaining Bullish investors always sell close to the historical lows. Those that BTD to early usually are in that group too. I have traded a few Bear markets and have the scars to prove it.

Good trading to all.

 

[tsptalk]

Sorry to hear about your father in law. Good to see you back, but family first!

 

[robo]

I trade TLT and EDV at Vanguard.


A Major Bottom For Bonds?
The huge volume signals that a major bottom is forming. In the Weekend Report I breakdown in detail where bonds are in their daily, weekly, yearly and 3 year cycle and discuss why with virtually everybody bearish on bonds — this will catch many by surprise.

 

[robo]

A possible oversold bounce and a ST buy signal based on this chart. We shall see how it plays.... I'm still trading using Bear Market rules.

 

[robo]

SPX daily: A closer look. The SPX will need to move back above the 10, 20, and 200 day MA's and the weekly must confirm ( a move back above the 10 week MA) before I think an ICL is in.

 

[robo]

SPX weekly: Will shall see how the next move up handles the 10 and 20 week MAs. For now they remain resistance. The next move "could still tag" the 200 week MA .

Bottom Line: We are having a oversold bounce, and we shall have to wait and see how it plays out.

 

[robo]

VXF daily: Vanguard's version of the S Fund.... Far from the next buy signal if you are trading the weekly charts like I do.

Maybe an oversold bounce is coming for the S Fund too...... We shall see how the lower BB crash trade plays out. ( a move lower than the lower BB)

 

[robo]

Bonds - TLT/AGG weekly. A possible bottom is forming.... LOL.... that's a guess based on the data.

 

[tsptalk]

Bonds - TLT/AGG weekly. A possible bottom is forming.... LOL.... that's a guess based on the data.

I've called three of the last zero bottoms in bonds.

 

[robo]

I've called three of the last zero bottoms in bonds.

Lol... only 3! I'm down a tad too on my AGG,EDV and TLT trades.. I'm still long all 3....

 

[robo]

Bonds daily: Another buy signal, but it could still be LT move.

I'm still long bonds and ST trading stocks when they get oversold.

 

[robo]

Bonds weekly: Keep an eye on the dollar.

 

[robo]

Bonds monthly: Still no YCL or a buy signal using the monthly data.

For now, Long and wrong bonds.

Long - TLT, EDV and AGG. I'm also long the SPX for a ST oversold trade.

 

[robo]

I'm not really liking the gap up on these charts. We shall have to see how things play out, but the daily buy signal remains for now. Day 6 for the AGG buy signal, and it's testing the 50 day MA.

Have a nice day!

 

[tsptalk]

Unless it's a rare gap and go? :slomo:

 

[robo]

" Unless it's a rare gap and go? "

That would be nice..... Bonds do leave gaps behind in the short-term. Waiting to see how AGG handles the 50 day MA.... If this is a yearly cycle low it should be a nice move up. For now the 50 day MA remains tough resistance.

 

[robo]

SPX daily: A nice move above the 10 and 20 day MAs with a gap left behind. We shall see how it handles the 50 day MA. I'm trading using Bear Market rules so I will be selling the rips.

 

[robo]

SPX daily: A closer look:

 

[robo]

Stocks Facing Test At 50 MA

Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 18, which is too early to expect the DCL to form.
Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Wednesday. Stocks delivered bullish follow through by closing above the 200 day MA on Thursday, turning the 10 day MA higher, to signal that day 18 was an early DCL. Stocks are now approaching the declining 50 day MA.

Stocks were rejected by the 50 day MA the previous 2 times that they tested it. While some resistance is to be expected, successfully closing above the 50 day MA would be a change of character and would indicate that stocks have begun their intermediate cycle advance. Which I plan to breakdown in the weekend report.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.blog/2023/11/02/stocks-facing-test-at-50-ma/