back 2 back disatasters

[teknobucks]

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[font="verdana, arial, helvetica,"]The U.S. appears to be in line for another catastrophic landfalling hurricane

One cannot underestimate the gravity of the situation. All evacuation requests should be heeded by all persons with no exceptions.

For a reminder of how serious the situation could be, the following are headlines from the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, a Category 4 hurricane at landfall:

Great Disaster at Galveston: Deaths May Be Over 2,600

The Wrecking of Galveston: Story Told in Detail by a Newspaperman Who Escaped--People Caught Like Rats in Traps

Many Towns Wrecked: Terrible Destruction and Great Loss of Life in the Path of the Storm Inland

At 11 pm, Hurricane Rita was centered at 24.6N 87.2W and packing maximum sustained winds of 175 mph. Its central pressure had also fallen earlier to 897 mb (26.48”), the 3rd lowest for any Atlantic basin hurricane. This is much stronger than I had expected.

Given that Rita will generally be passing across 29°C-30°C waters until landfall, it will probably not weaken significantly. I do believe that there will be some weakening, especially as Rita will likely cross a patch of waters with a hurricane heat content figure of less than 10:

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       DTG     LAT    LON     ANALYS DTG    SSHA      SST      Z26      HHC
2005092121 ACT 24.40N  86.80W 2005092100   0.076   29.811   79.175   20.708
2005092206 FOR 24.50N  88.50W 2005092100   0.007   29.572   42.704   10.564
2005092218 FOR 25.20N  90.60W 2005092100  -0.261   29.404   27.241    5.695
2005092306 FOR 26.00N  92.70W 2005092100   0.124   29.393   45.517   11.578
2005092318 FOR 27.00N  94.50W 2005092100  -0.047   29.491   39.393   10.144
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Nonetheless, once Rita has passed such waters, its weakening should be gradual. Hence, it will likely make landfall as a Category 4 hurricane and I have increased my estimate to 140 mph so as to take into consideration the hurricane heat content and possible eyewall replacement cycles. It also matches up well with Hurricane #2 (1919), which has so far served as a good analog.

There remains a possibility that Rita could be even stronger at landfall. At present, Hurricane #5 (1886), the “Indianola Hurricane,” is the strongest on record to make Texas landfall. It came ashore with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

Right now, the guidance has shifted somewhat to the north and east. However, the GFS 500 mb ensemble mean height anomalies indicate that the turn might be wider than what some of the guidance suggests:

In addition, if one examines the frames for 9/26 0z and 9/27 0z, it is implied that Rita could stall out somewhere in central or northern Texas. If so, that would imply substantial flooding rains for that part of Texas, perhaps in the 10”-20” range.

The 9/21 12z European Model also argued against a northern Texas landfall. Hence, the thinking remains essentially the same with only a small northward adjustment to take into consideration Rita’s somewhat north of west trajectory. I also retain the idea that Rita will make landfall at a northwest heading rather than one that is between north-northwest or even due north.

Right now, I believe Rita will make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston:

Given Rita’s size, a significant portion of Texas’ coast will likely experience hurricane conditions. Hurricane conditions could also extend across a portion of the Louisiana coastline. However, New Orleans should not suffer from anything close to such severe conditions.

Strongest Atlantic Hurricanes:
1. Gilbert (1988): 888 mb
2. Hurricane #2 (1935) “Labor Day Hurricane:” 892 mb
3. Rita (2005): 897 mb
4. Allen (1980): 899 mb
5. Katrina (2005): 902 mb
6. Camille (1969): 905 mb
6. Mitch (1998): 905 mb

Seasons with Louisiana and Texas having Major Hurricane Landfalls in the Same Year:
1886:
∙ Hurricane #5 “Indianola Hurricane”: Texas (Indianola): Category 4
∙ Hurricane #10: Louisiana: Category 3

1909
∙ Hurricane #4 “Velasco Hurricane:” Texas (Northern Texas): Category 3
∙ Hurricane #8 “Grand Isle Hurricane:” Louisiana (Grand Isle): Category 4
Note: Hurricane #10 made landfall in the Florida Keys as a Category 3 storm

1915
∙ Hurricane #2: Texas (Galveston): Category 4
∙ Hurricane #5: Louisiana (New Orleans): Category 3

Also, it should be noted that no seasons have seen two Category 4 hurricanes make landfall since regular recordkeeping began in 1851.

Estimated Track:
25.0N 90.0W
27.5N 95.0W
30.0N 97.5W

Estimated Strength at Landfall:
Landfall in Texas: 140 mph[/font]



[font="verdana, arial, helvetica,"]__________________
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[mlk_man]

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"In addition, if one examines the frames for 9/26 0z and 9/27 0z, it is implied that Rita could stall out somewhere in central or northern Texas. If so, that would imply substantial flooding rains for that part of Texas, perhaps in the 10”-20” range."



My folks live in central Texas. Good think they live on a mountain top. Of course central Texas is flat, so it's more like a mole hill.

Wonder ifGeorge is at the ranch this week...............

M_M








Texas Hurricane History

The worst natural disaster in U.S. history was the hurricane that hit Galveston, Texas, in 1900. It killed at least 6,000 people. Since being settled, many hurricanes in addition to the Galveston storm have hit Texas. The National Weather Service's Southern Region has a history of these storms, beginning in the 16th century, on it's Web site.

• NWS Southern Region: Texas hurricane history

Brief outlines of some of the most significant storms to hit Texas since 1900 are below.





The July 25-29, 1943 hurricane that hit the Houston area was only a Category 1 storm, but it caused major disruptions of war production. World War II censorship of weather information increased the death toll. This storm is also famous as the storm that Col. Joseph Duckworth and Lt. Ralph O'Hair flew into in an AT-6, single-engine training airplane to become the first people to fly into a hurricane's eye.

• City of Houston: The surprise 1943 hurricane

The summaries below are from the National Hurricane Center are of major hurricanes to hit Texas beginning with the 1900 Galveston Hurricane:

Sept. 8, 1900: The Galveston hurricane was deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history, killing formm 8,000 to 12,000 people. Storm tides (the surge plus the astronomical tide) of 8-15 feet inundated the entire island city of Galveston. More than half of all the homes and buildings were destroyed. Property damage is estimated at $700 million in 1990 dollars.

• USATODAY.com: The Galveston hurricane

July 20, 1909 a hurricane passed directly over Velasco, Texas, There, the calm center lasted 45 minutes, and was followed by devastating winds on the other side which destroyed one-half of the town.

August 16, 1915: A very large and violent storm hit Galveston. Despite the 10-foot-high sea wall built after the 1900 hurricane, storm tides 12 feet above normal flooded the business district to a depth of six feet. 275 people lost their lives from a combination of high water and strong winds.

Sept. 14, 1919: This unnamed storm was fourth most intense and deadly storm of the 20th century. It passed near Key West, Fla., on September 9-10. The slow moving storm reached an intensity of 27.37 inches (927 mb) in the vicinity of the Dry Tortugas, Florida islands 65 miles west of Key West. Ten vessels were lost at sea accounting for more than 500 of the 800-900 deaths. The hurricane continued slowly westward and on September 14, the center went inland south of Corpus Christi. There, tides rose 16 feet above normal and another 287 lives were lost.

Hurricane Audrey, 1957: Hurricane Audrey made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border on June 27th with devastating effects. Its central pressure deepened considerably in the last five hours before landfall. There were 390 deaths as the result of a storm surge in excess of 12 feet, which inundated the flat coast of Louisiana as far as 25 miles inland in some places.

Hurricane Carla, 1961: Carla was the largest and most intense Gulf Coast hurricane in decades. On September 8, Carla's center took aim at the Texas coast. By the 9th, Carla's circulation enveloped the entire Gulf of Mexico with fringe effects along all Gulf Coast states.

On the 9th, the largest mass evacuation to that date occurred, as an estimated one-half million residents of low coastal areas and islands off Texas and Louisiana were evacuated to higher ground. As the center approached Texas on the 10th, winds near the center were estimated at 150 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft indicated a central pressure of 931 mb just prior to its striking the coast. Only 46 lost their lives because of early warnings. Severe damage along a wide expanse of the Texas coast was caused by unusually prolonged winds, high tides and flooding from torrential rains.

Hurricane Beulah, 1967: The storm developed off the African coast and became a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean Sea on the 8th. From September 10th to 13th it weakened greatly and was downgraded to a tropical storm. However, on the 14th, it regained hurricane status again, turned toward the northwest and headed for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. It made landfall at Cozumel on the 16th, and entered the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on the 17th.

On the l9th, it intensified, and reconnaissance aircraft recorded a central pressure of 920 mb or 27.17 inches. It continued moving northwest and made landfall between Brownsville, TX and the mouth of the Rio Grande about daybreak on September 20. A ship at anchor in Port Brownsville reported winds of 136 mph. Beulah's strength was seen in the impact the storm's surge had along Padre Island, Texas.

A total of 31 cuts were observed through the island in the portion extending south from a point 30 miles south of Corpus Christi, TX. A cut is a new channel through a barrier island. The storm surge was found to have reached a height of at least 18 feet. Torrential rains fell in southern Texas, with amounts ranging from 10 to 20 inches. Beulah also spawned an unsurpassed number of tornadoes, but most were small and occurred in rural areas. The death toll from Beulah reached 15 in Texas--5 from tornadoes and 10 from flooding.

Hurricane Celia, 1970: Hurricane Celia was one of the most destructive storms to ever hit Texas, with damages estimated at $1.6 billion (in 1990 dollars). Celia became a hurricane on August 1 in the Gulf of Mexlco and intensified rapidly in 15 hours before it crossed the coast north of Corpus Christi. As it moved over land, spectacular damage occurred from a "cluster of high energy winds of short duration," (also called downbursts or microbursts).

The extreme winds raked across the residential and business areas in less than half an hour. It was estimated that winds reached as high as 160 mph for several seconds. During those disastrous seconds, incredible damage occurred at the airport and an adjacent mobile home park which was completely demolished. Fortunately, only 11 died in the Corpus Christi area due to the state of preparedness by its disaster prevention agencies.

Hurricane Allen, 1980: When it was over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Allen was one of the most intense hurricanes ever. Allen reached Category 5 status three times. It obtained a 911 mb (26.89 inches) central pressure in the eastern Caribbean on August 5 while south of Puerto Rico.

After weakening near Haiti and Jamaica, Allen again strengthened and a minimum pressure of 899 mb (26.55 inches) was recorded by a NOAA aircraft on the 7th when it was off the Yucatan Peninsula. Only Hurricane Gilbert with the all time low pressure reading of 888 mb in 1988, and the infamous Labor Day hurricane of 1935 with a central pressure of 892 mb were lower than Allen's 899 mb central pressure.

Allen lost strength again near the Yucatan Peninsula but regained it over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico with a central pressure of 909 mb (26.84 inches) on 9th. The center of Allen did not cross any land until it moved inland north of Brownsville, on the 9th. Just off the Texas coast, Allen hesitated long enough to weaken to 945 mb (27.91 inches), and then moved inland north of Brownsville bringing highest tides and winds over the least populated section of the Texas coast. Only two deaths were directly attributed to Allen. The strongest measured winds were gusts to 129 mph at Port Mansfield, Texas. A storm surge up to 12 feet along Padre Island caused numerous barrier island cuts and washouts.

Hurricane Alicia, 1983: Alicia was the first hurricane to strike the Continental U.S. since Allen in 1980. It was the longest period in this century that the U.S. mainland had gone without a hurricane landfall (though tropical storms did hit within that time). Alicia was a small to medium size hurricane. It reached a minimal Category 3 status as it hit land. The center of Alicia moved over the Texas coast about 25 miles southwest of Galveston on August 18. Aircraft observations indicated that only a 60 mile section of the coast, extending northeastward from Freeport, Texas, experienced hurricane force winds. Despite its small size, Alicia caused over $2.4 billion in damage (in 1990 dollars).

• USATODAY.com: Hurricane Alicia

Hurricane Gilbert, 1988: Although Gilbert, one of the most powerful hurricanes of the century, did not strike the U.S. Gulf coast, it did affect Texas and Oklahoma. It is often compared to 1969's Hurricane Camille, because like Camille, it was also a Category 5 storm.

Hurricane Gilbert was also a monumental storm, because it had the lowest sea level pressure ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere at 888 mb (26.23 inches). The highest sustained winds recorded were in Jamamica at 116 mph, with gusts to 140 mph. An unofficial report recorded slightly higher readings.

Gilbert's track took it through Jamaica, over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, through the southwest Gulf of Mexico and made final landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on the northeast Mexican coast on September 16th. Gilbert brought 5 to 10 inches of rain over coastal sections and more in mountainous areas.

The weakening storm passed south of Monterrey, Mexico, bringing massive flooding to the area. The storm then tracked north into western Texas and Oklahoma as a heavy rain storm on the 18th. A total of 318 people were killed; 315 throughout Mexico, Central America, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, and 3 in the U.S. Damages in Mexico were estimated between $1-2 billion (1990 dollars), and nearly $2 billion in Jamaica.

The Mexican government reported that more than 60,000 homes were destroyed. The 3 U.S. deaths occurred in San Antonio, from tornadoes spawned from Gilbert's remnants. At least 29 tornadoes were observed across south Texas, and they caused between $40-50 million in damages. In the area of Brownsville, wind gusts from Gilbert of 67 mph to 83 mph were measured by an observer with a truck mounted anemometer, before the storm made landfall in Mexico.

National Hurricane Center: Hurricane Gilbert

Hurricane Bret, 1999: When Bret hit Texas it was the first major hurricane, a storm with winds faster than 111 mph, to directly hit the state since Alicia hit Galveston and Houston on Aug. 18, 1983.

• USATODAY.com: Hurricane Bret

 

[The_Technician]

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U know guys, I don't believe the hurricane is going to Texas....its going back to New Orleans area....

I've been saying this for two days now due to weather patterns I have noticed for the last two days.....I call it the Frederick Effect for the weather pattern that happened during Hurricane Federick in 1979

One good thing about it if it does go back to NO area....at least we won't be tearing up any new oil refinerys ........But what do I know, right!!!

Good Luck....

:dude:The Technician

 

[robo]

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How to pay for the Hurricanes?

"High Three" to "High Five"?
Government spending to recover from Hurricane Katrina means spending cuts will probably be necessary in other government programs. One possibility is changing the formula for calculating federal employee pension benefits.
Date Published: September 22, 2005


http://www.fedsmith.com/articles/articles.showarticle.db.php?intArticleID=711

 

[cowboy]

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I think Mr. Smith should consider getting rid of the High 3 and High 5 idea all together, if he wants to save the tax payer money and save way more! He could recommend an average life time and watch the federal fat cats squeal.Internally this system is just a way to fill some ones pockets at, or close to retirement, and burn the working class in the process.The baby boomers will retire regardless, and all this does is prolong retirment 2 years of the federal employee,so it is just a band-aid. Of coursewith this guys connections he would possibly be chewing off his own bread and butter which he has no intention of doing!

 

[teknobucks]

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bright side.......

 

[teknobucks]

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RITA images

all take a while 2 load.............forget it if dial up

http://tinyurl.com/lqli

http://tinyurl.com/bxn3h


http://tinyurl.com/8cr56

http://tinyurl.com/48ccg

this thing is shifting rightas it weakens.

Narleans is "######"....more H2O than they can handle now.

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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Dave M "the WX guy of EYW"..... a few ?'s reference Rita if u have the time......

what is your opinion of these higher pressure readings and the breakdown on left side at this point? do you think she could breakdown even more?

since these canes are always changing in intensity.....is it a bad time for her to cycle back to a 4 with so much hot water to traverse prior to landfall?

TIA!!

tekno

 

[grandma]

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teknobucks wrote:

[font="verdana, arial, helvetica,"]The U.S. appears to be in line for another catastrophic landfalling hurricane[/font][font="verdana, arial, helvetica,"]
Right now, the guidance has shifted somewhat to the north and east. However, the GFS 500 mb ensemble mean height anomalies indicate that the turn might be wider than what some of the guidance suggests:
Right now, I believe Rita will make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston:

Tekno- thank your for this picture - it shows the most clearly (for me) where my kids are...that little peninsula just above Corpus. He is dir of transp at the Rockport schools, & on the local taskforce, so right now is busybusing folksout. I understand the prisoners went first, then the nsg home folks. If Rita heads back toward NO, won't that lessen the cost of damages - or does it engulf even more oil rigs when turning back?
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[grandma]

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robo wrote:

How to pay for the Hurricanes?

"High Three" to "High Five"?
Government spending to recover from Hurricane Katrina means spending cuts will probably be necessary in other government programs. One possibility is changing the formula for calculating federal employee pension benefits.
Date Published: September 22, 2005


http://www.fedsmith.com/articles/articles.showarticle.db.php?intArticleID=711

here is what I posted elsewhere before i got to this page - on paying & who is not payingfor the damages.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum31/2251.html

 

[teknobucks]

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grandma wrote:

[font="verdana, arial, helvetica,"]
If Rita heads back toward NO, won't that lessen the cost of damages - or does it engulf even more oil rigs when turning back?
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best for your relatives (they need to evac btw)and the stock market is for the damn thing to keep turning right.

the more rigs, refineries,and populationon the left side of this storm the better.



hurricane tracking info:
Eglin AFB Tropical Weather page
Florida Coastal Waters
Hurricane & Tropical Storm Weather Updates - Weatherhub
HURRICANE WEATHER DATA
hurricanetracking
J Squared Weather Forum - excoboard.com
Moored Buoy and C-MAN Locations and Information
Perry's Hurricane 05'
POD WEATHER Podcasting Weather One Day at a Time
Unisys Weather 3 hour Loop of Infrared Satellite Image
Wright-Weather - powered by vBulletin

 

[grandma]

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I would suppose that Jim will leave when his job is done. My daughter went to sons' in Austinyesterday, after she cleaned out her classroom (into the main bldg.). I just don't know when : `the job is considered to be done....'

 

[teknobucks]

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as long as heleaves .......that's what is important.

very interesting read on canes.: http://www.enterprisemission.com/hurricane1.htm

 

[Greg]

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teknobucks wrote:

[font="verdana, arial, helvetica,"]The U.S. appears to be in line for another catastrophic landfalling hurricane[/font]

Maybe the federal courts shouldn't have let the one judgeremove the Pledge of Allegiance from public schools because it has the reference "one nation under God" in it.

 

[teknobucks]

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[font="verdana, arial, helvetica,"]markets will rock if this is true.....[/font]

[font="verdana, arial, helvetica,"]Rita is weakening, but that can be just a ERC, which should be ending by tonight right when she passes the warm spot. If she can't get back to the 905-10 level, she will most likely collapse into a Cat 2. Maybe alot of hype for nothing?[/font]

 

[teknobucks]

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Greg wrote:

teknobucks wrote:

[font="verdana, arial, helvetica,"]The U.S. appears to be in line for another catastrophic landfalling hurricane[/font]

Maybe the federal courts shouldn't have let the one judgeremove the Pledge of Allegiance from public schools because it has the reference "one nation under God" in it.

well Greg i'd like to think it's just nature.

would hate to think how GOD will punish us for printing all that money from thin air:shock:


Rita and the Texas oil rigs
[url]http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp[/url]

 

[Greg]

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teknobucks wrote:

would hate to think how GOD will punish us for printing all that money from thin air

Matthew 22:15-17 - Then the Pharisees went off and discussed how they could trap him in argument. Eventually they sent their disciples with some of the Herod-party to say this, "Master, we know that you are an honest man who teaches the way of God faithfully and that you don't care for human approval. Now tell us - 'is it right to pay taxes to Caesar or not'?"

22:18-20 - But Jesus knowing their evil intention said, "Why try this trick on me, you frauds? Show me the money you pay the tax with." They handed him a coin, and he said to them, "Whose face is this and whose name is in the inscription?"

22:21 - "Caesar's," they said. "Then give to Caesar," he replied, "what belongs to Caesar and to God what belongs to God!"

22:22 - This reply staggered them and they went away and let him alone.

 

[grandma]

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teknobucks wrote:

very interesting read on canes.: http://www.enterprisemission.com/hurricane1.htm

That is fascinating - you've keyed us in to this site before on another subject at some time in the past, haven't you? I didn't follow the links and there was a lot I didn't understand. We have had the earthquake, if I understood that partright, probably not, since it was across the continent. Thanx for the share,

and to your wife,

also, for her patience!

 

[Dave M]

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I sometimes have trouble logging in so I did a test message which I edited out.

****

From the Technician: "I've been saying this for two days now due to weather patterns I have noticed..."

Gee, not only are you a marketexpert but a weather expert, too. A Renaissance Man.

****

Teckno, I have a track ball on the eye of this storm on my workstation. It has held a motion of 305 degrees at 9 knots for the last 24 hours. During the conference call that just ended -- 0830Z -- they chose Sabine Pass as the most likely place for landfall.

Surge is complicated. Forward speed and wind speed must synchronize for surge to maximize. If it is strong but slow, surge will be less than if it is strong but fast. However if it is moving too fast, it can outrun its surge. Coming straight on toward the coast will be a factor -- less surge than if it was paralleling the coast.Bottom topography and the shape of the shoreline also are critical. Sabine Pass is a narrow inlet to a large bay or lake. The necks on either side of the inlet will reflect and slow the surge.

To the right of the track lie extensive marshes south of Lake Charles LA. these will absorb a lot of the surge.

The main event with this system may not come fora week after landfall. It is forecast to stall in the Texarkana/Shreveport region and may even drift back toward the south. Thus it will be dumping 3-6 inches of rain per day for maybe 5 days over the same area. Once this water gets into the rivers a significant fresh water floodwill occur.For one thing, it means the folks who evacuated will not be able to get back for a long time.

Rita brushed my island Tuesday with 76 mph winds on land but 98 mph just five miles off shore.

Dave

 

[teknobucks]

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very worried about platform damage from this one.

this link is active...by clicking on it u may zoom in and out. Rita and the Texas oil rigs
[url]http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp[/url]


dave m is right about the soaking rains creating flooding in the area.....may in fact be the biggest problem caused by Rita

tekno