Aviator Guy's Account Talk

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I’m holding my C Fund, especially now after Mr. Plosser's (Fed Philly) comments. I’m still down YTD over 2%!! Good Luck with your TSP investments!! :cool::cool:
 
Thank you Aviator for your post. I'll go ahead with a somewhat bearish translation of these statements...(reading between the lines...)

To sum up, I think the U.S. economy will experience several quarters of sluggish growth in 2008 before returning to a sustained expansion over the next two years. There are risks to the downside in terms of the possibility of even weaker economic growth. A substantially weaker outlook than expected, particularly if that weakness is projected to be more prolonged than anticipated, may require further adjustments to policy.
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Translation:

"I, just like everyone else and their dogs, expect the economy to slow this year before we ultimately prevail with another bull market (at some point in 2009). I acknowledge that there are downside risks looming, and even weaker than expected growth is possible, even negative growth which in my book, is still growth, just the opposite of positive. Be that as it may, a recession is not all that bad, but we will adjust our policy (if it ends up lasting for more than 2 quarters). In other words...it will be obvious before we adjust our policy significantly."

At the same time we also face risks of higher inflation. Inflation remains a concern to me because it is uniquely the Federal Reserve’s responsibility to control it. No other agency or policy arm of the government can effectively deliver on the goal of achieving and maintaining a stable price level. Price stability allows the economy to grow at its maximum potential and supports the efficient functioning of our financial markets. Consequently, we must remain vigilant on the inflation front and be prepared to act as necessary to avoid the risk of undermining public confidence in the central bank’s commitment to price stability.
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Translation:

"First and foremost, I'd like you to note how much bigger this paragraph about inflation is compared to the previous paragraph talking about the economy. Second, it's important that I give you background as to why inflation is #1. Finally, I hope you now see why, although we may have lowered interest rates (and could reluctantly do it some more)...we will be chomping at the bit to bring them back up again.

Overall, it should prove to be an interesting and challenging year for policymakers.
Click to expand...
Translation:

"We are really caught between a rock and a hard place."
 
Basically, Mr. Plosser is saying more weakness will require further interest rate cuts. This is VERY significant coming from one of the more hawkish members of the Fed. The recent weakness in the economy is clear and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a .5 cut this month. Anyway, bad news news / good news. I’m currently in Large Caps and staying put for now.:cool::cool:
 
Limiting our IFT’s to only twice a month will hurt my TSP account in a negative way. I noticed the TSP Talk website tracked 129 returns in 2007. Of those tracked returns, over 40% exceeded the S&P 500 annual return of 5.54%!

I think the only ones to benefit from limiting our IFT’s are the contractors who are awarded the fed contract to manage the TSP. Less IFT’s means less overhead for their contract. I hope I’m wrong because if so, this could be a possible lawsuit. I have been in fed service for 29 years and can remember four lawsuits. All four went in favor of the employees. Anyway, that my 2 cents worth.:cool::cool:
 
Another good overseas sale for Boeing…:cool::cool:

Gulf Air Signs $6 Billion Agreement for 24 Boeing 787 (Update2)
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Gulf Air, Bahrain's loss-making national carrier, and Boeing Co. signed a $6 billion agreement for the delivery of 24 Dreamliner aircraft to begin in 2016, airline spokesman Adnan Malik said.

The Dreamliner is Boeing's most successful new airplane program in terms of sales with more than 800 orders valued at more than $120 billion. It ranked second in commercial orders last year behind the 737 narrow-body model.
 
Great news from GE!! Their overseas sales remain very strong.

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. said fourth- quarter profit rose 15 percent, led by higher overseas sales of jet engines, power-plant turbines and locomotives to help compensate for slower U.S. economic growth. :cool::cool:
 
Tax stimulus plan would sure help!! It helped kick start us several years ago, but they need to quit talking and firm us this deal up ASAP!! Copied this from the wall street journal site...:cool::cool:

The president is expected to lay out the principles of his stimulus plan today, but without getting into specifics. Privately, the White House has discussed its support for a tax rebate of as much as $800 for individual taxpayers, more than double the $300 rebate featured in a 2001 effort to spur economic growth.

The stimulus package could end up resembling the 2001 stimulus plan, which was widely regarded as well-timed and effective in keeping that year's recession mild. In that package, which Mr. Bush supported, married couples got as much as $600 in tax rebates and single tax filers as much as $300. The rebates were based on the new 10% bottom tax bracket that the 2001 legislation created. The lowest bracket previously had been 15%.
 
they would be smart to hold off releasing that off, don't you think the markets would sell off when that hits the wires officially?
 
fedgolfer said:
they would be smart to hold off releasing that off, don't you think the markets would sell off when that hits the wires officially?
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Anything that helps stimulate the USM is a good thing. Now only if Uncle Ben would move forward with a nice cut to round it out!! But, I don't think the markets will sell off on this news. But, don't listen to me, my account is down almost 10 percent YTD!!! LOL:cool::cool:

I can remember back in 1982 we were going through some really rough economic times and seeing Regan touring American businesses promoting our products overseas. That was a very good thing. I would like to see Bush and or the Pres candidates do the same. Every chance they get a photo op, they need promote our products. I just think a lot those companies dealing with overseas markets are oversold at this time. Companies like Boeing might help us stay out for the “R” word.
 
This will wipe out my gains all the way back to 2006!!! Found the following two companies at a price I like. Good Luck and hang onto your hats because this Fire Sale is not over yet!!! I'm going to try to ride this wave out!:cool::cool:
Boeing (BA) at 76.01
Apple (APPL) at 154.91
 
Looks like a done deal... Thats 1500 for more Best Buy goodies... :cool::cool:

From the WSJ site...
Jan. 24, 2008

Congressional aides said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Minority
Leader John Boehner reached an "agreement in principle" in meetings
last night on a bill to provide roughly $100 billion in tax rebates to a
broad group of workers and about $40 billion in tax breaks for business.
The details still were being vetted with lawmakers, and Democrats and
their allies already were raising concerns that the agreement does not
include added spending on unemployment benefits or food stamps.

The rebates would be at least $300 for anyone who earned at least
$3,000 in 2007, with $300 bonuses for children. People who owe income taxes
would receive gradually more, up to $600 for individuals and $1,200 for
couples. The rebates would be available to those below a certain
income cap, likely $75,000 adjusted gross income for individuals and
$150,000 for families.
 
Don't count on it, did you read the rest? As usual, the Middle Class gets shafted....:mad:


The rebates would phase out gradually for individuals whose income exceeds $75,000 and couples with incomes above $150,000, aides said. Individuals with incomes up to $87,000 and couples up to $174,000 would get partial rebates. The caps are higher for those with children.
 
Tomncath said:
Don't count on it, did you read the rest? As usual, the Middle Class gets shafted....:mad:


The rebates would phase out gradually for individuals whose income exceeds $75,000 and couples with incomes above $150,000, aides said. Individuals with incomes up to $87,000 and couples up to $174,000 would get partial rebates. The caps are higher for those with children.
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Im in the middle (less than 150K married)...:cool:
 
Good news, this was posted just after USM closed... Posted on Bloomberg at 430pm.:cool::cool:


Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp., the world's largest software maker, posted a second-quarter profit that surpassed analysts' estimates on sales of its Xbox 360 game console and Windows programs for personal computers. The company raised profit and sales targets for the year.
Net income in the period ended Dec. 31 rose 79 percent to $4.71 billion, or 50 cents a share, from $2.63 billion, or 26 cents, a year earlier, the company said in a statement today. That beat the 46-cent average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales climbed 30 percent to $16.4 billion.
 
Aviator_Guy said:
Im in the middle (less than 150K married)...:cool:
Click to expand...


Well, I'm married and work 48.5 hours a week. We're at 180K so this is my thanks for working overtime...I get zip!

Good thing I've been watching all you great guys and gals here, at least I didn't get clobbered like I would have in the past by being a buy-n-hold dummie...just wish I had not moved out of the F fund at the end of December but glad I moved to the G after the first week of January. All in all I feel very lucky and I'm learnig a whole lot here that Tracy Ray can't take away from me! :rolleyes:
 
FUTURESTRADER said:
are the married (150K) and single levels adjusted gross income or gross?
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75K adjusted gross income for single, 150K adjusted gross for married.

My wife and I have mucho tax deductions with our two homes, so it's easy staying under the 150K adjusted gross.:cool::cool:
 
Staying in the “I” fund, current price is 22.31 and 12 months ago on Jan 29th 2007 it closed at 22.32!!!

Is this a tough market or what!:cool::cool:
 
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