Aviator Guy's Account Talk

[weatherweenie]

I wanted to be a well disciplined investor and stand still with the “I” Fund, but I decided to run. This decision will cost me money today. Not sure how much since we may be in for a –FV.

Good luck with your TSP accounts!!

With the market showing signs of rebounding, the I Fund could end up with a +FV today.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

If the USM take another serious dive tomorrow, I might jump back into the Stock pool. But, that - .9% FV took a pretty good bite off of my account today. Anyway, it will be really interesting to see how all of the markets react over the next 24 - 48 hours. I will keep a close eye on Bloomberg TV / online site to get updated analysis. I’m currently licking my wounds in the mattress fund (G Fund)... Good luck with your TSP investments!!!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I want to hold off on making a decision on getting back into either the SP or I fund. The markets are very volatile (go figure!). Good reports from Amazon are having a positive effect, but it’s too early to tell. I’m holding off my decision to get back in until I take a peek at market trends from 1130am EST to 12:00pm… If there is a route down on the SP, I will probably lean towards the I in order to hope to get either a neutral or – FV… If the SP is in the green (>.5 to <1.2% range) between 1130-1200, I will probably invest into the SP. If I have a hint that we will get a +FV, I will not look at the I fund. Good luck with your TSP accouts!

 

[12%ayear]

I want to hold off on making a decision on getting back into either the SP or I fund. The markets are very volatile (go figure!). Good reports from Amazon are having a positive effect, but it’s too early to tell. I’m holding off my decision to get back in until I take a peek at market trends from 1130am EST to 12:00pm… If there is a route down on the SP, I will probably lean towards the I in order to hope to get either a neutral or – FV… If the SP is in the green (>.5 to <1.2% range) between 1130-1200, I will probably invest into the SP. If I have a hint that we will get a +FV, I will not look at the I fund. Good luck with your TSP accouts!

IMO, we break into the 14000s faster than people think

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Tracking the 1130-1200pm trends on the SP / EAFE and it looks like it’s > .5% change, so I have decided to move back into the I fund. I think they look for a > .5% + or – swing from 1130-1200pm EST and I didn’t see that occur this morning. Unless there is a huge swing this afternoon, I might get lucky. My hope is for a neutral FV this afternoon. Good luck with your TSP account!

Note: The SP snapshots are pretty much in real time, but the EAFE lags about 20 min, but the later snapshots confirmed it performed pretty much the same as the SP.

SP +.35% 1130 am
SP +.40% 1156 am

MSCI EAFE -.53% 1134 am
MSCI EAFE -.45% 1157am

Note: Bloomberg showing -1.3% EAFE 1213pm EST.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I think Mr. Tom Crowley is correct saying the Market is oversold, especially in the small caps. Anyway, I decided at the last minute to move from the “I” fund into the “S” fund. I just hope I might get a little FV relief this afternoon as I move out of the “I” fund….

As of 1230pm EST, the “S” Fund is down about 2.58 %. You need to go back six months to find small cap shares at this price!!! Good luck with your TSP investments!

Note: Barring a NBC attack from that little short President of Iran, I will ride this one out until I see an upside. But, that is what I said yesterday!! LOL

Note: This stock market volatility reminds me of another movie, “The Mask”… I was just thinking about this part of the movie when Jim says,
“Hold on to your Lug Nuts, It’s Time for an Overhaul”

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Great article!

http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/30/markets/sloan_drop.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007073010

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Finally an up day for the S “Fund” investors!!! WooHoo. I know, don’t hold your breath!

Anyway, I’m down -5 percent, so this will help chip it down to about -4.3%, at least as of this afternoon. The S “Fund” hasn’t been this low since about Feb of this year, so I think I will try to ride this one out. I’m holding onto my shares, my entering share price was 19.89.

The break even point for my account is 20.94 per share. That’s only a buck a share increase!! LOL… My MRA (min. retirement age is 56) is another six years from now and I’m pretty confident it will increase above 5 % by that time.
Good luck with your TSP accounts!!

 

[Birchtree]

All you really need is sticky pants.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Unemployment numbers were 1/10 of a percent off forecast so, I guess that makes the market drop 3 percent? LOL… Fear and Greed drive the market and I can smell fear right now… I still think the fundamentals are sound so I’m staying in.

The last time the C Fund was at $16.02 was Feb 1st 2007.

The last time the S Fund was at $19.24 was Jan 30th 2007.

When the market drops this low, this fast, you must appreciate life. This weekend I’m going to dust off my BMW motorcycle and go for a long ride. Then when I get back, I’m going to read a good book. But, trust me, Sunday night, I will tune into Bloomberg to see how our OSM buddies are dealing with it. I always assumed the USM investors would lead us out of this mess. Who knows, maybe the OSM folks will take the lead for a change?? Good luck with your TSP accounts and I hope you have a great weekend!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

The markets are still very Volatile (understatement of the year), but I think it’s time to jump back into the stock pool (“S” Fund). I’m down -5% losses over the last four weeks and will attempt to recover. If the USM recovers on Monday, I will probably make another move from “S” fund to “I” fund by COB Monday, but time will tell…

Anyway, it has been a wild ride to say the least. The Fed move this morning will help the markets, but it’s only a temp solution. Long term, we need a rate cut and soon. I feel confident we will recover in a big way next week. Have a great weekend and good luck with your TSP investments!!!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

As of 8-15-2007, the “G” fund YTD is 2.98 %, and it’s giving investors a better YTD return compared to all C, S and I funds combined!!! The “I” fund is the highest of the three at just over 1% YTD!!!!

I jumped into the “I” fund today, 8-15-07 and it’s not looking good. The Rout seems to just get worse and the Fed is just sitting on the sidelines watching investors dwindle away. I’m on the road tomorrow away from internet access, but I should be able to check the OSM and USM trends using my TREO 755 cell. I will pull over and take a snapshot of the S&P from 1130-1150am and if the trend is > -.5 % or looking to be on a positive trend, I will ride out the “I” fund. If its <-.5% or trending down, I will move into the G.

My YTD is 11%, so I have very little to play with. And I’m not confident the Fed is going to step in until it’s way too late. Fear is rampant world wide, plus TS Dean is making me think it’s time to take a break. Anyway, I have seen our correction slam a lot of our TSP folks on this site and I sure hope it doesn’t turn them off on the markets. Good luck with your TSP investments and have a great weekend!!!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Decided to move back into the G fund from the “I” fund. I’m cutting further loses while my account is still in the green YTD. Good luck with your TSP investments!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

WooHoo, finally some good news! Good luck with your TSP investments!

Fed Cuts Discount Rate to 5.75 Percent to Ease Credit Crunch

By Scott Lanman and Brendan Murray
Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve, in an unscheduled announcement, cut its discount rate and said it's prepared to take further actions to ``mitigate'' damage to the economy from the rout in global credit markets.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

"It's a good first step," said Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus. "This is much more effective in the short term than fixing the federal funds rate," he added. Still, Lehman now expects the Fed to lower the fed funds rate by a half percentage point by the end of the year. Prior to Friday it had expected no change.

I will probably move into the “I” fund, but will wait until the last possible moment to do so today. Have a great weekend everyone!!!

 

[fedgolfer]

most of the stocks i'm looking to buy are filling their gaps after they gapped open. Assuming many stock will fill their gaps this AM/early afternoon, do you think smart money will send it higher in the last couple of hours? I'm sure they want a two or three day bull rally/short squeeze?

 

[Aviator_Guy]

most of the stocks i'm looking to buy are filling their gaps after they gapped open. Assuming many stock will fill their gaps this AM/early afternoon, do you think smart money will send it higher in the last couple of hours? I'm sure they want a two or three day bull rally/short squeeze?

I’m still worried about Hurricane “Dean” and investors have been knocked down pretty hard recently, but I think it’s pretty safe to move back in. All stocks are oversold to say the least, but I’m still a little cautious. I was planning on holding off getting back in until next week, but the Fed move changed all that. I will probably move back in within the next 30 minutes. It will be really interesting to watch the Japanese market move on Sunday!!! Good luck with your TSP investments!

Note: I’m on vacation right now and using a friend’s computer. You have to love technology, instant access to market news, news events, weather trends etc etc etc…

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I’m moving out of the “I” fund because it looks like it’s going to be an outstanding day. I’m a little worried about a storm forming in the Atlantic that might turn the markets around next week and I don’t want to be stuck in the markets if that happens. Plus I have to hit the road really early this morning for a business trip. Have a great holiday weekend and good luck with your TSP investing!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Yes, I have been in the black, but not in this Quarter BABY!!!

I’m going to Best Buy and purchase that CD with a really funny lyrics, goes something like this…

They’re tryin to make me go to rehab
I said no, no, no
Yes I been black, but when I come back,
You wont know, know, know

This is the first quarter I haven’t been in the black, but as our California Governor says… I’ll be Back… Good luck with your TSP investing!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street bank Merrill Lynch warned Friday it would report a third-quarter loss with its bottom line taking about a $5.5 billion hit as a result of this summer's subprime crisis.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/05/news/companies/merrill_lynch/index.htm?postversion=2007100516

This is a bad report and could sting us early next week…. Ouch, I just jumped into the “I” fund COB last Friday!!
Oh well, no risk, no rewards!!

The good news is I’m enjoying a nice visit with my oldest son who just got out of the Air Force… We’re off to the airport to dust off my Piper Warrior airplane… We’re installing a new battery and will try to fire that bad boy up today… Everyone have a fantastic Columbus Day holiday!!!...