Aviator Guy's Account Talk

[Aviator_Guy]

May turned out to be another positive month with just under a 2% gain. This ups my 2nd Quarter returns to 5.32%. I will need to earn another 3.69% in June to break my 1st Quarter return which will be difficult, but it can be done.

I spent over half of the month of May in stocks, most of it with the “I” fund. I really don’t like being in stocks for any long length of time. I got hit a couple of times with FV’s that didn’t go my way and that included today. But, overall it was a good month and I’m grateful for the gains I have to date.

I’m still having a hard time understanding why stocks keep jumping up to new records when GDP and other numbers are all negative. All I know today is that all of the CSI stock funds closed at record highs and I decided to lock up my small gains for the month of May and tuck them away to the G Fund so I can earn the penny when it plays out.

It seems like the only thing that will upset this booming stock market is some geo political event or natural disaster such as a hurricane. I will sit on the sidelines for a while and look for an opportunity to buy stocks when they go back on sale. Good luck with your TSP investments!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

It looks like Los Angeles made the Real Estate list showing an actual depreciation in home values!!... Back in 1992 / 1993 LA took a huge hit too, but that was a result of the Clinton era demobilizing the military industry… So Cal home values have been averaging about 20% a year which isn’t sustainable, but it’s really interesting to see Las Vegas on the bottom of the list.

I think you will see more investors moving from Real Estate back into stocks, but it’s a great time to buy land. I really feel sorry for the folks who recently purchased a home in these areas who might be looking at a real estate loan that could owe more than it’s worth (Upside Down). Everyone have a great day and good luck with your investments!!

Los Angeles $547,000

57


138.5


-11.9


92-'93


-5%​

Bakersfield, Calif.

$287,000


35


168.1


-5.4


94-'95


-5.4%​

Stockton, Calif.

$450,000


46


99.1


-5.2


94-'95


-5.4%​

Fort Lauderdale

$325,000


31


128.4


-3.1


92-'93


-5.5%​

Phoenix

$271,000


26


103.8


-6.0


81-'82


-5.5%​

Nassau/Suffolk, N.Y.

$483,000


31


76.3


-6.6


89-'90


-6%​

Miami

$335,000


41


149.3


-4.3


81-'82


-8.8%​

Las Vegas

$325,000


33


110.8


-17.0


82-'83


-8.9%​

 

[12%ayear]

remember the NASDAQ in March of 2000, same thing with real estate. When everyone is talking about flipping property and low interest rates..like interest only loans, ARMS...its time to get out. In March 2000, doorman were giving stock tips...time to get out. When the majority agrees....sell...when majority disagree..buy, like oil and gold..nobody wanted them...people who bought make serious cash, same with stocks in the early March 2003..nobody wanted them after the crash and 9-11...people who bought made serious cash.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Just tried to take a peek at Bloomberg on my Satellite receiver on channel 203, but it no longer shows up… hmmmmm…. Oh well, CNBC works on channel 208…

 

[Aviator_Guy]

remember the NASDAQ in March of 2000, same thing with real estate. When everyone is talking about flipping property and low interest rates..like interest only loans, ARMS...its time to get out. In March 2000, doorman were giving stock tips...time to get out. When the majority agrees....sell...when majority disagree..buy, like oil and gold..nobody wanted them...people who bought make serious cash, same with stocks in the early March 2003..nobody wanted them after the crash and 9-11...people who bought made serious cash.

I did well in stocks before and after 9-11 / Katrina when investors had their meltdowns. Actually, you can make a lot more in a down market than an up market. The key is being out of phase with herd mentality. That’s why I spend more time being out of the market than in.

Real Estate appreciation in the USA has gone nuts over the last six years. This recent depreciation was bound to happen. It’s bad news for speculators and those who flip homes for profit. All I know is my home value has gone up a little over 100 percent since I purchased it in 2001. Affordability has gone out the window, at least in southern California. Prop 13 protects our home owners from paying excessive prop taxes, so as long as they don’t change that I will be ok.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at Macy's Inc., J.C. Penney Co. and other U.S. retailers fell in May as shoppers curbed purchases due to higher gasoline prices and a sluggish housing market.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, said U.S. sales at stores open at least a year gained 1.1 percent, on the low end of its forecast for a 1 percent to 2 percent advance.
U.S. retail sales from February through May rose at half the pace from a year earlier as consumers reined in purchases of non-essential items such as clothing and home furnishings..
``The American consumer is not aggressively shopping right now as they are shut in with further worries,'' said Eric Beder, an analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co. in New York.

Looks like consumers are cutting back due to high gas prices. No breaking news there, just common sense. Anyway, I plan on helping the economy by buying my daughter a new lap top for her HS graduation present.

Looking like it will be another tough day on the street for the markets. As a reminder, when you sell your stocks on a down trend, that is a permanent loss. I’m going to ride this wave out. Good luck with your TSP investments!

 

[Boghie]

I think high fuel prices and increasing interest rates are driving folks to pay down debt.

Nobody wants to be caught with a large credit card balance when BofA (or whatever) decides to double your interest rate...

When the consumer is paying down debt they are not purchasing new trash with debt. We will soon see if this is true or not - just a feeling...

 

[Show-me]

Working on debt free.

I think high fuel prices and increasing interest rates are driving folks to pay down debt.

Sure has motivated me. I'm so close I can taste it.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I think high fuel prices and increasing interest rates are driving folks to pay down debt.

Nobody wants to be caught with a large credit card balance when BofA (or whatever) decides to double your interest rate...

When the consumer is paying down debt they are not purchasing new trash with debt. We will soon see if this is true or not - just a feeling...

I agree with you on your CC comments. Credit Card companies often charge outrageous interest rates. Mine is 9%, but I think they double that rate if you come up late for a payment, so I make double sure I pay them on time!

I’m probably a lot older than most of the folks in here at 50. When I served in the Navy (75-81), I would save up and pay for things with cash. My old Nikon F2a 35mm camera and a couple lens and electronic flash set me back two months of E-4 pay!!!... Anyway, pay as you go seems kinda old fashion today, but it sure beats paying interest.

 

[Boghie]

Aviator Guy,

The scariest move I have seen the CC companies play is the one where they double your interest rate when you have a high balance. They send you some little piece of paper with all the stupid gimic gifts that 'informs' you that your rate is going to be bounced from 9% to 18%. Of course, you can opt out of it, close the card, etc. - but only if you write a letter in the proper syntax to some address provided in the tiniest print possable...

I had that happen to me once...

Never again...

 

[Aviator_Guy]

After watching my share prices drop, I thought about a popular song called “Gravity”, but I substituted the word Strategy vice Gravity…

Strategy keeps pulling me down… Guess when you get knocked down this hard, you just have to try and stay positive… The sun will rise tomorrow… Another day, another dollar!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Boeing hits another homerun with a new order from Russia!

June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co., the world's second-largest maker of commercial aircraft, won an order valued at about $3 billion from OAO Aeroflot for 22 Dreamliners in a possible sign of better relations between the U.S. and Russia.
Boeing and state-run Aeroflot signed a contract today at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which brought together more than 200 companies. The first of the 787-8 Dreamliners will be delivered to Aeroflot in 2014, Chief Executive Officer Valery Okulov said after the ceremony.
The Boeing sale was delayed as relations between the U.S. and Russia worsened after American officials accused President Vladimir Putin of impeding democracy. Airbus SAS won a pledge in March from Aeroflot to buy 22 A350s valued at $4.4 billion after competing with Boeing for more than a year.
``For Boeing, it's hardly a prestigious number, (and) it's hardly a big order, but Airbus needed those numbers,'' said aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia, of Teal Group Corp. in Fairfax, Virginia. ``So to deprive Airbus from being the customer is far more important to Airbus than Boeing.''

 

[nnuut]

Yeah, Putin needs to do something, because he got so PISSED and showed his Butt about the European Anti Missile System!:laugh:

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I was just looking at the returns off of the TSP website.

Best average returns for the following years:

2003 42.92 % “S” Fund
2004 20.00 % “I” Fund
2005 13.63 % “I” Fund
2006 26.32 % “I” Fund

Last 12 month TSP average (June 2006 thru June 2007):

“I” Fund 27.18 %
“C” Fund 20.63 %
“S” Fund 19.47 %

My return average for the first six months of 2007 is 13.73%. Jan and Feb were my best months and June was the worst with a -.65% loss. It looks like the “I” fund is clearly outperforming our USM over the last three years. For 2007, I have moved money in and out of the “I” fund more than I have in the past with good results. Good luck with your TSP accounts!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I decided to move back into the “I” fund after reading the economic report card released this morning… I’m looking very short term on this one, as usual. Good luck with your TSP accounts!

Good News:
Wholesale inflation reported better than expected (June producer prices fell .2 %, 1st time in 5 months!)… And, outstanding USA earnings reports should turn around the negative OSM tonight and tomorrow.

Bad News:
$75.00 a barrel oil, first time at that level in about 11 months! I know spikes in oil might help the OSM “I” fund, but the bottom line is if it hurts consumers, it hurts all markets long-term. And finally, I think that really short leader east of Iraq has been watching too many James Bond movies. We still have three Navy carriers on his doorstep, so hopefully he won’t do anything just yet.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

The last -FV occurred on Friday the 13th (Go Figure!). Anyway, that FV cost my account .484 % due to the -FV. That was when I jumped out of the "I" fund.

I will be happy if we just have a neutral FV today. I’m going to ride this wave through, just hope I have a soft landing when I reach the beach. Good luck with your TSP investments!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Aviator,
Thanks for your offer to keep me posted. I bought a Treo 700wx with Verizon because I wanted an operating system and explorer from Microsoft similar to my home p/c, my work desktop, and my laptop. It is my understanding that the TreoP operates with a Palm system. It is supposed to be fine, but it is easier for me to work with similar systems without significant differences. Good luck to you also!

Upgraded from the Treo 700P to the Treo 755P and the new phone has somewhat better internet speed. Actually, the Palm 700P has longer talk time compared to the 755P. The only reason I upgraded was because I was on a business trip in Atlantic City and my old 700P failed / locked up on me. It was cheaper to purchase a new 755P than a new 700P which I found interesting. I use my cell phone extensively for business and personal use.

My overall impression of the 755P is it’s another outstanding Treo product and I recommend it highly. The new processor is noticeably faster and the internet connection takes advantage of Sprint’s new high speed network where available. All of the hardware between the 700P and 755P are compatible except for the internal battery and removable memory card.

My plan is to get my old 700P repaired since it’s still under warranty. I doubt if I will be able to sell the 700P, so I will use it as a backup. I can sync this with my lap top to quickly load it in the event the 755P fails or if I lose it.

Since I’m on the road a lot, it’s not unusual for me to use the cellular to move my TSP funds around on the fly. I also use the XLS spreadsheets to track my account as well. Have a great day!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

The “I” fund was down -.91 yesterday, but is looking good today. Last night, the NIKKEI was up .44 and the FTSE 100 is up 1.11% today, so it’s looking good. Keeping my fingers crossed for a +FV today.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

OSM asian FYI last night...

MARKET INDEXES
Australia All Ordinaries 6419.00 + 0.81%
Bombay Sensex* 15550.13* + 1.63%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 23016.20 + 0.76%
Japan Nikkei 18116.57 + 0.56%
Shanghai Composite 3912.94 - 0.44%
Singapore STI 3604.62 + 0.58%
South Korea Composite 1937.90 + 0.37%
Taiwan Weighted 9473.31 - 0.13%

 

[Aviator_Guy]

When trying to decide to stay or jump out of the “I” Fund, I keep thinking about one of my all time favorite movies, “Full Metal Jacket”…

“The ones that run are VC… The ones that stand still are well disciplined VC”…

I wanted to be a well disciplined investor and stand still with the “I” Fund, but I decided to run. This decision will cost me money today. Not sure how much since we may be in for a –FV.

Good luck with your TSP accounts!!