ask tom

[tsptalk]

Good info. Thanks!

 

[McDuck]

Tom, I jumping in at 100%-C from 100%-G for my first IFT of the month. The S&P was down 4% at the deadline and at - 4.6% currently. Do you think I made a mistake?

 

[tsptalk]

I wish I knew. So far the support line is holding, but I am expecting a test of the Nov. lows at some point.

 

[JTH]

Tom

Before the commodities bubble burst, Oil & Gold seemed to trade inversely to the U.S. Dollar.

There are a few things I just don't understand. :worried:

With the Feds printing/pumping all this extra money, why has the dollar maintained it's strength?

With gold on the rise, why hasn't it beat down the dollar and why isn't and Oil following gold?

I understand the demand for oil has gone down, but does the decline in demand for oil really justify it's low price?

Finally, do you expect any of this to change?

Thanks...JTH

 

[tsptalk]

With the Feds printing/pumping all this extra money, why has the dollar maintained it's strength?

The dollar's strength is in comparison to other currencies, and they are hurting worse overseas. The pound, euro, Canadian dollar, Aussie dollar, are all hurting. The yen has been holding up. however.

With gold on the rise, why hasn't it beat down the dollar and why isn't and Oil following gold?

I didn't think this dual rally could last, but the above response may be the answer. The dollar may be holding up vs. other currencies, but gold is out pacing them all. Right now the Dow is worth about 8 ounces of gold. It used to be like 30+ ounces.

I understand the demand for oil has gone down, but does the decline in demand for oil really justify it's low price?

Just as the upside went a little too far, when bubbles burst, the downside tends to get exaggerated as well. If we see $30 or $25, as cracmer would say, buy, buy, buy!

Finally, do you expect any of this to change?

I expect gold to do well. The dollar may stay strong or hold, but gold should out pace. Like I said, oil will be a buy once no one believes it will go up. Probably when $30 falls.

Just my opinion. I hope it helps.

 

[alevin]

Tom, the tracker folks who've been in G since start of the year appear to be goobled up in the tracker. G says .33, G people show admixture of .32 and .33. and they are not in numerical order. My account says .32, but I've been in G since before New Year, so I should be showing same as G, .33, shouldn't I? Other folks accounts should also be showing .33 instead of .32 - I think.....?

 

[tsptalk]

I'll check on that.

 

[tsptalk]

I'll check on that.

My first thought, without looking at the program, is that it is due to rounding. The return you see for the year is taking your total return since you were first tracked, minus your return thru Dec 31.

The G-fund is up 0.32495% for the year so it's almost exactly between .32 and .33. Today's gain in the G-fund should pop you all to .33, as it will hit approx .33279%. If some go to 0.34 I will explore further.

This is no reason not to make it correct, but this error could be off by .005%, which is about 50 cents for each $10,000 of balance.

 

[tsptalk]

Tom, the tracker folks who've been in G since start of the year appear to be goobled up in the tracker. G says .33, G people show admixture of .32 and .33. and they are not in numerical order. My account says .32, but I've been in G since before New Year, so I should be showing same as G, .33, shouldn't I? Other folks accounts should also be showing .33 instead of .32 - I think.....?

My first thought, without looking at the program, is that it is due to rounding. The return you see for the year is taking your total return since you were first tracked, minus your return thru Dec 31.

The G-fund is up 0.32495% for the year so it's almost exactly between .32 and .33. Today's gain in the G-fund should pop you all to .33, as it will hit approx .33279%. If some go to 0.34 I will explore further.

This is no reason not to make it correct, but this error could be off by .005%, which is about 50 cents for each $10,000 of balance.

Shew! I was right. I wasn't 100% sure my theory was correct but all the G-funders are now +0.33% as suspected.

 

[alevin]

Thanks Tom. I figured it was something like that and an easy fix.

 

[hessian]

Hi Tom,
mojo posted the following this morning:

"For those of you who missed it the Dow Jones removed all stocks in the industrial average priced under $10.00, effectively eliminating the crippled financial sector"
Is this true?

I'm as interested for an answer to this as he is, because if true, it could have a big impact for the Dow, next week! :worried:

Apologies, for re-posting it here/with you, but thought you might have heard
- or maybe there's a TSPTalk "Rumor" post, that I should've maybe used as appropriate.
I am going to try to get to bottom of this now, via google.
Hope anyone that knows will respond with correct answer!!
Thanks

 

[Rod]

Hi Tom,
mojo posted the following this morning:

"For those of you who missed it the Dow Jones removed all stocks in the industrial average priced under $10.00, effectively eliminating the crippled financial sector"
Is this true?

I'm as interested for an answer to this as he is, because if true, it could have a big impact for the Dow, next week! :worried:

Apologies, for re-posting it here/with you, but thought you might have heard
- or maybe there's a TSPTalk "Rumor" post, that I should've maybe used as appropriate.
I am going to try to get to bottom of this now, via google.
Hope anyone that knows will respond with correct answer!!
Thanks

To the best of my knowledge, AIG was removed last fall. But all others remain in-place.

 

[tsptalk]

"For those of you who missed it the Dow Jones removed all stocks in the industrial average priced under $10.00, effectively eliminating the crippled financial sector"
Is this true?

I watch a lot of CNBC and/or Bloomberg, and have not heard that but it actually makes sense. Stocks get dropped from major indices if they fall below certain market capitalizations.

So no, I have not heard this, it could happen, but they'd probably be replaced by other financials because I would think the Dow would have to have some representation from the financial sector.

http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/

 

[nnuut]

I found this on Google!
Posted: February 21 2009


Gold now represents a flight to quality, banks being nationalizied, financial system in a tailspin, the depression we are now in is stage 2, inflation is a hidden tax, dollar stability being debauched, China wants out of the dollar, stability of EU at risk, Dow hiding its worst stocks from its index, Housing bubble now burst puts prices back in line with incomes...

INTERESTING EXCERPT FROM THE ARTICLE: "For those of you who missed it the Dow Jones removed all stocks in the industrial average priced under $10.00, effectively eliminating the crippled financial sector. Had they been left in the Dow would be lower and would have broken down below 7286. This is just more flagrant manipulation. Almost every day we see it in a number of markets. This week the Fed and the Treasury tried to push the stock market up and the commodities and gold and silver markets down but to no avail. Downside stock market volume has been some 65% of total volume and there are over 300 new lows almost every day." [more]
http://goldtradercomments.blogspot.com/

 

[hessian]

Thanks for the great quick responses!
FYI, mojo's Acct had a little more on this (in case interested).
Together, I think I got the general/overall picture.
Don't like it, seems manipulated, but perhaps not a huge issue.
VR!!

 

[Rod]

I found this on Google!
Posted: February 21 2009


Gold now represents a flight to quality, banks being nationalizied, financial system in a tailspin, the depression we are now in is stage 2, inflation is a hidden tax, dollar stability being debauched, China wants out of the dollar, stability of EU at risk, Dow hiding its worst stocks from its index, Housing bubble now burst puts prices back in line with incomes...

INTERESTING EXCERPT FROM THE ARTICLE: "For those of you who missed it the Dow Jones removed all stocks in the industrial average priced under $10.00, effectively eliminating the crippled financial sector. Had they been left in the Dow would be lower and would have broken down below 7286. This is just more flagrant manipulation. Almost every day we see it in a number of markets. This week the Fed and the Treasury tried to push the stock market up and the commodities and gold and silver markets down but to no avail. Downside stock market volume has been some 65% of total volume and there are over 300 new lows almost every day." [more]
http://goldtradercomments.blogspot.com/

I don't know Norm. I would question something like that coming from someone's blog.

We need a reliable source.

 

[McDuck]

Tom,

On your Market Comments page, it says that C-fund % Chg wk was -11.6% but between the Friday 13th and 20th the Sp500 went down 6.7%.

Thanks for all you do.

Greg

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks Greg! Got it.

 

[JTH]

Tom

I'm showing a difference between the tracker and my TSP Talk Returns Calculator with L-Funds Excel spreadsheet.

Tracker: 20% Each shows -8.94%

My tracker: 20% Each shows -11.50%

I'm I off my rocker?

Thanks...JTH

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks. My spreadsheet says -11.50% also. I'll take a look. I found a problems with another account as well. I'm not sure what is up.