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ask tom
- Thread starter bluesrogie
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Tom:
in your daily commentary, you said "...As I write this, the fed funds futures are showing a 52% chance of a full 1% rate cut tomorrow, and a 48% chance of a 0.75% cut. No one is talking 0.50% anymore..."
would you please point it out to me where you'd find such information?
Many thanks for your hard work.
in your daily commentary, you said "...As I write this, the fed funds futures are showing a 52% chance of a full 1% rate cut tomorrow, and a 48% chance of a 0.75% cut. No one is talking 0.50% anymore..."
would you please point it out to me where you'd find such information?
Many thanks for your hard work.
McDuck
Well-known member
Tom,
A friend told me about a TSP-fund IFT-strategy that someone else (person B) told him about. Person B said it performed 5 or 6 times better than any other strategy that he analyzed.
I would like to hear if you have heard of this one before and what you think of it.
It is a very simple strategy. It consists of: at the beginning of each month IFT into the fund that performed the best the previous month (i.e., at beginning of July IFT into the fund that performed the best during June.)
I back-tested it for the years 2001 thru 2007; 2001 was the first year with all 5 funds.
Using this strategy over those 7 years gave a return of 114%.
Staying in the I-fund the same years returned 74%.
The S-fund returned 69%.
The F-fund returned 49%.
The G-fund returned 38%.
The C-fund returned 25%.
Supposedly, person B has been using this strategy for several years with success. It seems too simple. But I can see why it would work. And it does take the emotions out of IFTing and it would fit in any restricted-IFT rules that they throw at us.
This strategy could also be back-tested all the way back to the beginning to TSP using the G, F, C funds. I haven't done that yet.
Also, staying in a fund (that performed best the previous year) all year seems to be a very good strategy too.
Of course, all of this is taking the multi-year view.
Sincerely,
Greg
A friend told me about a TSP-fund IFT-strategy that someone else (person B) told him about. Person B said it performed 5 or 6 times better than any other strategy that he analyzed.
I would like to hear if you have heard of this one before and what you think of it.
It is a very simple strategy. It consists of: at the beginning of each month IFT into the fund that performed the best the previous month (i.e., at beginning of July IFT into the fund that performed the best during June.)
I back-tested it for the years 2001 thru 2007; 2001 was the first year with all 5 funds.
Using this strategy over those 7 years gave a return of 114%.
Staying in the I-fund the same years returned 74%.
The S-fund returned 69%.
The F-fund returned 49%.
The G-fund returned 38%.
The C-fund returned 25%.
Supposedly, person B has been using this strategy for several years with success. It seems too simple. But I can see why it would work. And it does take the emotions out of IFTing and it would fit in any restricted-IFT rules that they throw at us.
This strategy could also be back-tested all the way back to the beginning to TSP using the G, F, C funds. I haven't done that yet.
Also, staying in a fund (that performed best the previous year) all year seems to be a very good strategy too.
Of course, all of this is taking the multi-year view.
Sincerely,
Greg
Last edited:
Tom,
Before I ask you a question, I read your commentary today. I fully support you and agree with you. I hope you can find a way to let those who voluntarily want to roll-over, to do so. Especially in light of the fact that TSP is trying to change their promised and currently established ability to do daily IFTs without our consent. I hope you succeed!
In pertinent part, you said,"If they do in fact implement the limits, and they are not official yet, I will strongly consider cutting my contributions to 5% to get my agencies match amount, then move the rest into an IRA. I will also find out if there is a way to move any of our money that is currently in the TSP, into that IRA. I feel we were misled. I have contributed a lot of money over years with the understanding that I would have unlimited transfers available if I needed them. Now that the rules have changed, I feel we should have the right to make a one time rollover without penalty. I wish things could have been different."
My question, to change the subject: In your 4/09/08 commentary (yesterday) you stated,
"As long as the S&P is trading below the 200-day moving average (DMA), and the 20 DMA is below the 50 DMA, we have to be on our guard. It is a bear market until proven otherwise. Some of the rallies are playable, but once the indices become overbought, it's back to defense."
If you chart the S&P500 using a mix of simple and exponential moving averages, it shows that EMA(20) has already crossed-over the SMA(50). Is it a mistake to mix the EMA and the SMA indistictively? Maybe it has something to do with faster or slower indicators? Thank you.
Before I ask you a question, I read your commentary today. I fully support you and agree with you. I hope you can find a way to let those who voluntarily want to roll-over, to do so. Especially in light of the fact that TSP is trying to change their promised and currently established ability to do daily IFTs without our consent. I hope you succeed!
In pertinent part, you said,"If they do in fact implement the limits, and they are not official yet, I will strongly consider cutting my contributions to 5% to get my agencies match amount, then move the rest into an IRA. I will also find out if there is a way to move any of our money that is currently in the TSP, into that IRA. I feel we were misled. I have contributed a lot of money over years with the understanding that I would have unlimited transfers available if I needed them. Now that the rules have changed, I feel we should have the right to make a one time rollover without penalty. I wish things could have been different."
My question, to change the subject: In your 4/09/08 commentary (yesterday) you stated,
"As long as the S&P is trading below the 200-day moving average (DMA), and the 20 DMA is below the 50 DMA, we have to be on our guard. It is a bear market until proven otherwise. Some of the rallies are playable, but once the indices become overbought, it's back to defense."
If you chart the S&P500 using a mix of simple and exponential moving averages, it shows that EMA(20) has already crossed-over the SMA(50). Is it a mistake to mix the EMA and the SMA indistictively? Maybe it has something to do with faster or slower indicators? Thank you.
wv-girl
Member
Tom,
I have been hearing a lot lately about the redefining of the words "roll-over" versus "transfer". It seems that some now feel that "roll-over" means to get your $ and then put it somewhere else yourself instead of having the agency involved do it for you(ie. "transfer"). I think to be safe, it might be prudent for the participant to discuss those phrases with the person doing the 'transfer' so that there are no suprises. Just a suggestion, but an important one.
debbie
I have been hearing a lot lately about the redefining of the words "roll-over" versus "transfer". It seems that some now feel that "roll-over" means to get your $ and then put it somewhere else yourself instead of having the agency involved do it for you(ie. "transfer"). I think to be safe, it might be prudent for the participant to discuss those phrases with the person doing the 'transfer' so that there are no suprises. Just a suggestion, but an important one.
debbie
Some use the SMA, some EMA. Since decision point uses the EMA, I look for the trends in those averages. You can easily use the SMA, you just want to be consistant. If you want to use a mix, always use that mix. Know what I mean?
Good idea Debbie. I am not even up on the distinction, but I guess I better start looking into it. Thanks!
Tom:
I'd like to test the "Go away in May" theory with the TSP funds. On Stocktrader's Almanac, they posted the triggers date going back when. Do you have a spreadsheet with all the TSP share prices from inception? I was going to download them from tsp.gov, but thought I'd check with you first. You seem to have everything
Will post the results after I am done with it.
Thanks,
I'd like to test the "Go away in May" theory with the TSP funds. On Stocktrader's Almanac, they posted the triggers date going back when. Do you have a spreadsheet with all the TSP share prices from inception? I was going to download them from tsp.gov, but thought I'd check with you first. You seem to have everything
Will post the results after I am done with it.
Thanks,
ucanbreached
New member
Tom,
In today's commentary you put references to the sentiment trader.com analysis. The chart of historical activity and its possibility on the next three months. It seems that you have misplaced the princeton 8.6 yr cycle chart you put up 20 march. link - http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_3_20_08.html
Well, I am trying it out since the analysis you put up that day showed a strong historical accuracy. I actually bought at that march low and am now doing pretty good as a result.
That ref chart in the above link stated the market is supposed to go up until 1 qtr 2009 and then big drop for two years. Since I am somewhat young, I am going to play that chart; albeit I will definitly sell by Dec 08. Based on history and that chart, if someone would have followed it from its creation they would have done EXTREMELY well.
Anyway just wondering why you are using the short term sentiment trader analysis and not the longer term successful analysis you put up before.
In today's commentary you put references to the sentiment trader.com analysis. The chart of historical activity and its possibility on the next three months. It seems that you have misplaced the princeton 8.6 yr cycle chart you put up 20 march. link - http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_3_20_08.html
Well, I am trying it out since the analysis you put up that day showed a strong historical accuracy. I actually bought at that march low and am now doing pretty good as a result.
That ref chart in the above link stated the market is supposed to go up until 1 qtr 2009 and then big drop for two years. Since I am somewhat young, I am going to play that chart; albeit I will definitly sell by Dec 08. Based on history and that chart, if someone would have followed it from its creation they would have done EXTREMELY well.
Anyway just wondering why you are using the short term sentiment trader analysis and not the longer term successful analysis you put up before.
Hi ucanbreached -
Although there can be decent historical correlations, no one model is going to be totally accurate, all of the time. The business cycle chart you are referring to shows the peaks and troughs of the economic cycle, and sometimes the market does not move hand in hand with the economic cycle. But your point is taken.
That said, there will be good buying opps and selling opps within that cycle - of course acting on them is easier said than done.
Although there can be decent historical correlations, no one model is going to be totally accurate, all of the time. The business cycle chart you are referring to shows the peaks and troughs of the economic cycle, and sometimes the market does not move hand in hand with the economic cycle. But your point is taken.
That said, there will be good buying opps and selling opps within that cycle - of course acting on them is easier said than done.
Bonds have held up better than I thought, but with the rate cuts over and rate hikes (or the threat of them) in the air, it should keep a drag on the bond market, in my opinion. They are good for days when there's a run for quality, but the rallies "should not" last too long.
Tom:
Quote from "Bear Market Rules Apply"by Carl Swenlin (January 18, 2008)
"The questions remain as to how far down prices will go and how long the bear market will last? In the shorter term we have a minimum downside projection from the double top neckline of about 1160 on the S&P 500 Index. That could mark a medium-term low from which a bear market rally could rise...." (http://decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/080118_bear.html)
I look at daily, weekly and monthly, couldn't see the "double top neckline of 1160" he mentioned above. where is the double tops and 1160 came from?
thanks
Quote from "Bear Market Rules Apply"by Carl Swenlin (January 18, 2008)
"The questions remain as to how far down prices will go and how long the bear market will last? In the shorter term we have a minimum downside projection from the double top neckline of about 1160 on the S&P 500 Index. That could mark a medium-term low from which a bear market rally could rise...." (http://decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/080118_bear.html)
I look at daily, weekly and monthly, couldn't see the "double top neckline of 1160" he mentioned above. where is the double tops and 1160 came from?
thanks
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