amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

aaii bull-bear spread is no-where near the low single digit early August and late November readings that preceded a bounce. This market is going lower. I know where to get a $10 haircut; I don't need a $10,000 haircut. Seeya end of next week.

Ok, well, not an opinion this time, the market decided it IS going higher, and did so on the back of stubborn mega caps, chips, and some Bitcoin speculation. I will have my finger on the button anyways if the ripcord needs action. The true lows this year have matched low bull bear spreads but it doesn't have to go there and has reversed when VIX doesn't hold a trend. That happened in this week and also earlier around 9/11. An August 5 extreme didn't rematerialize and maybe you have Santa or, more likely, Holiday program trading to thank. Senior haircuts are actually $16 now for me. I think the markets could go big either way depending on what actually gets cooked up in terms of deals to avert loss of migrant workers and tariff imposition.

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[amoeba]

Some kind of a floor, maybe even a bounce, appears to be forming ahead of the cpi tomorrow. It is just one month but, at some point perhaps tomorrow or later this year, I think it will come in hot and require a further pause, maybe even a hike.

 

[amoeba]

Why I'm holding over the weekend (note previous Friday VIX peak, followed by decline until today)

 

[amoeba]

Pre-earnings leak (SMCI bottlerocketting, reports after Tuesday's close)?

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[amoeba]

Currently, moderate nervousness about policies could get better,or worse...hard to say by how much...Choppy.

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[amoeba]

For the moment, market is falling apart on Ukraine, tariff, Fed layoff/CR uncertainties, but limited thus far. I suspect more chop and a minimum -5% further washout of all equities until there's nowhere to hide. Then a bounce. Perhaps in another 2 weeks.

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[amoeba]

Thought about putting my toe in today, just can't do it. Stubborn elevated ^VIX, extremely negative bull-bear spread, tariff concerns, pending BOL report (likely miss IMO), loom. Sitting on my measly 4.1% until I see something that isn't complete darkness. Which is what we have now.

 

[WorkFE]

Measly 4.1%?
Is that calendar year to date?
It's March 6th hotrod, you're my hero

 

[amoeba]

Measly 4.1%?
Is that calendar year to date?
It's March 6th hotrod, you're my hero

It is YTD, I'm a premium subscriber so my return is not visible to all. Was 600 spots lower a week ago. My goal this difficult month, with a revised 4/2 reciprocal tariff date just after, is to beat the G fund.

 

[amoeba]

Beat on jobs report, market reverses early, breaks through support anyways. POTUS to speak 11am, JP this afternoon. No thanks.

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[amoeba]

Still no thanks, I remember the 2022 beating, like this (couldn't find the modern version, in English):

the bounty whipping clip - Suchen Videos

www.bing.com

 

[amoeba]

Nope, not buying today either, or the rest of this week, not likely this month either. Head in sand approach.

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[amoeba]

Hell no to buying here either, a 3rd very negative bull-bear aaii spread published this morning, but this is not even close to capitulation trade volume, or VIX extreme, that would suggest a reversal.

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[amoeba]

Fat the whuck was that move today? on light volume as well....POTUS spoke but said nothing. I'm thinking something is up for next week but a move away from any of the various sources of upheaval could put air under the deadcat: Elon (toss him under a bus)? Ukraine (get tough, instead of soft, on Putin)? early break in tariff negotiation? This is my sheer speculation, but these whipsaws have occurred before this last month and the direction has not reversed.

 

[amoeba]

Senior haircuts raised to $18 now. Bought more gold (GDX), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), foreign ETFs (EFA, EEM), lots of cash.

 

[nasa1974]

Senior haircuts raised to $18 now. Bought more gold (GDX), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), foreign ETFs (EFA, EEM), lots of cash.

I wish I got a senior discount. I'm paying $22.

 

[Whipsaw]

Haircuts $10 at the Navy Exchange

 

[ravensfan]

Haircuts $10 at the Navy Exchange

Hmm! Haircuts are free if you're in equities...

 

[amoeba]

Last week's huge Friday talked myself into blowing my 2nd IFT on 60% equities yesterday. Bailed today. Feel lucky to get out down a few tenths and some tracker spots.

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