amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Bloomberg fake trade news duped many, but not me....I sold nonTSP equity positions at today's intraday peak in expectation of a sharp gap down between now and 10/15. Later.

 

[amoeba]

I'm not a believer in this bounce, although the ultra low bull reading, 20%,on today's aaii can't be ignored..such a contrarian # typically reverses hard, which would mean an even larger bounce on top of the last 2 days. But I think not. I say 10/15 tariffs kick in as scheduled. Or Don is a wimp. Or China makes a real deal. Unlikely. Half ashed deals won't fool traders.

 

[BooDog]

I'm not a believer in this bounce, although the ultra low bull reading, 20%,on today's aaii can't be ignored..such a contrarian # typically reverses hard, which would mean an even larger bounce on top of the last 2 days. But I think not. I say 10/15 tariffs kick in as scheduled. Or Don is a wimp. Or China makes a real deal. Unlikely. Half ashed deals won't fool traders.

May just take this bounce and run today. Though if everything falls through the cracks I may be back to the G in the red. On the flip side, that has me hesitating, is a potential run up into holiday marketing, even with the constricting growth potential.

What to do, what to do.

 

[BooDog]

I'm not a believer in this bounce, although the ultra low bull reading, 20%,on today's aaii can't be ignored..such a contrarian # typically reverses hard, which would mean an even larger bounce on top of the last 2 days. But I think not. I say 10/15 tariffs kick in as scheduled. Or Don is a wimp. Or China makes a real deal. Unlikely. Half ashed deals won't fool traders.

May just take this bounce and run today. Though if everything falls through the cracks I may be back to the G in the red. On the flip side, that has me hesitating, is a potential run up into holiday marketing, even with the constricting growth potential.

What to do, what to do.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

Stay away from those Dead Cats. They bounce so hard and so high they may hit you on the head before you can react. In all seriousness, you cannot catch today's upturn so why risk October - which is normally a suck month. The earliest you could get back into the market is for Wednesday morning. Too much can happen. Keep your powder dry till there is a market trend - not a bounce.

This is why I rarely exit the market. The most conservative I am is where I am right now - only about 60% in the C/S/I. I rarely go below that, and only then when there is a misery trend or the market just seems hoppy and I've already made mucho moolah.

 

[Whipsaw]

I'm thinking I should take on a similar strategy, especially with a solid trend. I miss too much in the way of gains waiting for an entry position.

 

[amoeba]

One of the wierdest reactions I can recall. A weak, partial deal, in return for nothing, giving up the long anticipated 5% tariff surcharge, produces a +1.7% SPY, which fades to 1.0% at the close. OK, fine. There's no trade war. Wait a minute, wasn't the tariff 25%, and isn't it still 25%. So nothing has changed, and China will continue to suffer. So will we. Economic #s should remain weak, and get weaker, unless there is real progress soon. Seeya in November.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Great observation! Yes...Why the huge jump up? Tariff still in place (just the little increase not gonna happen). I still have a hard time believing an enforceable policy on Intellectual Property will occur. I am thinking this is just a move to appease and help farmers and those industries hurting most by trying to get something out of China and to de-escalate the tariff war, but also to get a little win out of it. I also think lots of the larger investing folks were out of office so ma and pa are excited. I haven't looked at volume yet.

In any case, as soon as details come out, the big boys will figure this out and I think equities will probably drop like a rock. But, I have been wrong before... so we will see. In any case, I was happy to see the little bounce I got from my little 20% in I fund. It had a great jump---BUT it really gapped up big time.

Best wishes to you and everyone!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[Mcqlives]

Great observation! Yes...Why the huge jump up? Tariff still in place (just the little increase not gonna happen). I still have a hard time believing an enforceable policy on Intellectual Property will occur. I am thinking this is just a move to appease and help farmers and those industries hurting most by trying to get something out of China and to de-escalate the tariff war, but also to get a little win out of it. I also think lots of the larger investing folks were out of office so ma and pa are excited. I haven't looked at volume yet.

In any case, as soon as details come out, the big boys will figure this out and I think equities will probably drop like a rock. But, I have been wrong before... so we will see. In any case, I was happy to see the little bounce I got from my little 20% in I fund. It had a great jump---BUT it really gapped up big time.

Best wishes to you and everyone!!!!!!! :smile:

DBA, You need to que up Witchy Woman!...China just said it wants to have "more talks" prior to the initial agreement being signed off on. Market futures aren't hitting as low as I thought they would though. DOW is only down about 80 as I type this.

 

[amoeba]

aaii moved from bullish to dead heat neutral (ie, contrarian, 20 to 31% bullish). This is a big move but isn't informative as to what's next...real mixed bag here, trade talks fading, but Don is looking unbeatable in election, impeachers looking more like the desperate jokes they are.

 

[amoeba]

Unlike long or short, a neutral position cannot make money so it will not dominate for much longer. A few more days and the VIX should pick up as earnings misses accumulate. Right now, I believe there's some kind of premium priced in, a FED rate reduction, a impeachment giveup, a trade deal...not sure...but this is too rich. Very little upside. Something has to give. If it's a real trade deal, 5% up is a lock. I just don't think so.

 

[amoeba]

$ moving around between misses and beats, but not leaving equities. Yet. I have an IFT to burn, but more inclined to wait for much better pricing than today. I think it's coming (i.e., 2700 or less). This may take some patience. Or, it may not happen at all.

 

[amoeba]

aaii finally moving, bulls 36+%, highest since early August reading, preceding hard retreat . I am not a buyer. I still say markets to correct again this year and soon.

 

[amoeba]

Ummmm, yahhhh, another missed day of gains for me....markets appear to be anticipating something great because, imo, current events do not justify current index price. Someone else will need to come up with a convincing reason to buy in bcz I don't have one.

 

[Boghie]

What current events??? The normal. Stuff like this happens all the time. Whatever the stuff is.

Who cares if your shoes are glued together in China or Vietnam? Really, who cares.

You guessed S&P500 at 2700 or less. It is 3000 or more. An absolutely catastrophic crash to 2700 is window jumping 9% decline. Oh, the humanity. But, instead the market has gone up a whopping 2%. Joy to the world. Hosannas all around!!!

Who cares if the market meanders around like it has. Don't be all out - or you will miss the early growth. Don't be all in - September and October are known to be horrid market months. Be just right.

 

[weatherweenie]

Missed day of gain is much better than missed year(s) of gains.

Ummmm, yahhhh, another missed day of gains for me....markets appear to be anticipating something great because, imo, current events do not justify current index price. Someone else will need to come up with a convincing reason to buy in bcz I don't have one.

 

[amoeba]

Or a missed year of losses, like 2018.

Missed day of gain is much better than missed year(s) of gains.

 

[amoeba]

When I wrote the post, I wasn't thinking "current events" as in news, but the current events as in the current status of the market. Which is not that good. P/E stretched, slowing growth in China, little room for interest rate easing, and some concerning job statistics that could indicate economic slowing (e.g., wage growth, job#), yet, it doesn't slow. As far as news events - maybe there's a new normal here - as in "let's go see if we can pin something on Trump before he gets elected again" - maybe that's just so gridlocking that market traders have concluded that nothing will change, or at least, not change for the worse. Meaning 5 more years of the same thing as the last 3+. But the two years haven't been as bountiful as 2016-2017 so I'm not sure what we'll get. So yes, I'm not enthused by the last 2%...I recall corrections much more than 9% in recent memory too. I will feel better passing on that. But hey, I'll consider adopting a minimum equity position. Not the worst idea.

What current events??? The normal. Stuff like this happens all the time. Whatever the stuff is.

Who cares if your shoes are glued together in China or Vietnam? Really, who cares.

You guessed S&P500 at 2700 or less. It is 3000 or more. An absolutely catastrophic crash to 2700 is window jumping 9% decline. Oh, the humanity. But, instead the market has gone up a whopping 2%. Joy to the world. Hosannas all around!!!

Who cares if the market meanders around like it has. Don't be all out - or you will miss the early growth. Don't be all in - September and October are known to be horrid market months. Be just right.

 

[weatherweenie]

I personally was able to eek out a 2.99% gain in 2018.

Or a missed year of losses, like 2018.

 

[amoeba]

That's 100X my 0.02% gain for 2018.
A disaster, really....had over 10% in October.

I personally was able to eek out a 2.99% gain in 2018.