amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

sumbeech:

Missed the cutoff by 4 minutes yesterday; and there it goes again; all the equity funds tank like a lead duck. Oh well, looks like my move to F may still pay off. Gotta know when to fold, exactly, these days.

Incidentally, everyone - - - if you want to see a better plot of the rocket-like takeoff of the F-fund, plot the VBMFX for the last 6 months (better track of the fund price than AGG). It's a bit strange that we don't put more into F, me included.

I don't know how much longer it will continue; fund prices are near a 2-year high; cash is not the place to put money; treasuries yield too low; and equities are the worst - - - that leaves bonds - - - which have been bid up fast and hard in the last 4-6 weeks.

If I can get 1-2% more in the next couple days, I will go back to G.

See ya.

 

[JTH]

Thanks for the VBMFX link, I'll try it out and see how it works.

 

[amoeba]

hmmmm: anyone else besides me notice that "TLT" shows up as the F fund in some views of this website; and "AGG" in another?

well - better not believe both - since they are going in opposite directions today - methinks the "TLT", is way the heck off of our F-fund;

In any case, I'm inclined to stay put (80G/20F) for at least the rest of the week, which I am taking off - and probably won't look at the market for that reason.

Expect very light trading this week - mostly sideways - then off a cliff in early January as the lousy retail sales numbers become more widely known.

I may be putting more into F during the new year; have a happy one

 

[amoeba]

Barely broke even on my 12/18 IFT into 20% F yesterday, so pulled back to 10%, the rest dry powder (90% G):

This 2-day rally will be destroyed next week when everybody gets back in; who in their right mind wouldn't cash in on a S&P close above 900 when the consumer sentiment is at a 30 year low?

The next 3-6 weeks should be interesting. I personally am expecting a free fall in the neighborhood of 5-10% in the next week, under 800 in the S&P. Others say it will go to 1,100.

It was interesting to hear the CEO of TrimTabs this morning, who provided his analysis of the so-called "money on the sidelines"; his conclusion was that there is none - that money was spent, alot to cover debts. Accordingly, there are no savings to support a rally, no lending to support consumption, and no rally to expect.

Expect F-fund to lead the way, all the way, through 2009. I made some bone-head maneuvers, not sticking to my guns (F-fund) in mid 2008 that limited my gains, trying to catch a bottom in C,S, or I. Didn't work. I guess I'm not one of the chosen few; but hey, anything in the black ain't bad.

Wait till next year.............Amoeba out.

 

[Birchtree]

The same dollar you had last year buys you twice as much S&P 500 as it did a year ago. The rush to declare the future bleak has obscured the fact that no one knows the outcome of an unprecedented event. Since things came to a halt more quickly than ever before, they could also restart more quickly than ever before. Be in to win. Snort.

 

[Mista_Magee]

Birch, ain't that the truth.

 

[amoeba]

The same dollar you had last year buys you twice as much S&P 500 as it did a year ago. The rush to declare the future bleak has obscured the fact that no one knows the outcome of an unprecedented event. Since things came to a halt more quickly than ever before, they could also restart more quickly than ever before. Be in to win. Snort.

True only if you have dollars to invest, which is because my TSP was 80-90% G fund since ~June-July of last year; if you left your TSP in C-fund then you can't buy anymore shares, because it dropped 40% in value.

Friday's employment report should be interesting; if memory serves - there was a jaw-dropping report recent - way worse than expectation, and the market did what? Bought the bad news!!!! (report is released early in day). Will be interesting to see if there are consecutive months of downward revisions to the last report.

Home values continue to decline, employment continues to rise, consumption falling off a cliff, holiday bookings down, twice the foreclosures this year....I'm sure Birchtree will tell me why the market is going to go up this year.....make my day.

 

[Birchtree]

The market is going to go up this year because no one expects it to go up. I just bought myself 75 C fund shares at $10.76. That's what payroll contributions are for - like clock work every two weeks. My last purchase of the C fund was at $10.21, then $10.09, and then again at $9.20, then $10.70, $10.06, $10.32, $13.86. It'll be excellent to collect a few $11.00 and $12.00 prices - one of the reasons I still go to work. I always say that dollar cost averaging is the redeemer of many a portfolio mistake. It's been great locking in those $10.00 C fund prices.

 

[budnipper1]

The market is going to go up this year because no one expects it to go up. I just bought myself 75 C fund shares at $10.76. That's what payroll contributions are for - like clock work every two weeks. /- one of the reasons I still go to work. /...

If I had YOUR money, that wouldn't be enough reason for me to go to work! Oh wait... I DON'T have your money and I DON'T GO TO WORK!:nuts:
​

 

[amoeba]

I'm staying out of any of the equity funds, completely, for now - and here's why:

1. I've come to the conclusion that the recent runup in the market was due to light volume last week, and some sort of unsubstantiated optimism in Obama - like he is the second coming of Christ. Doubt it. My read on him is that he is a Harvard debate team leader with little-to-no economic experience or training. He has appointed insiders, and the ideas I hear are a mix of recycled ones (stimulus, tax cuts), and cheerleading (he's gonna get together with congress....bla, bla, bla).

There are some people that buy into this early....thinking that this is the bottom. I'm not one of them. I know better. While its true that emotion can inflate markets to unbelievably high levels beyond their true value (dot-com boom), that is during good times, not bad ones.

2. Housing market - more foreclosures and resets will happen this year than ever before; and there's nothing that Obama or anyone else can, or should, do about it.

Lower housing prices are good. The problem is that there has to be a shakeout of those dopes who bid up the prices to 6-7X median income. It has to come down, to 3.1X median income, at most (probably below 3X).

There are some temporary, economic consequences of this timely and beneficial correction; namely - reduced consumption.

It will take ~one more season past 2009 to get past this.

3. Selling any rally - there has already been some money put into the market; this will be sold off if the market reaches 1,000 (S&P).

4. The Obama plan won't work - we just can't spend our way out of a recession.

I may do some short term moves, of small amounts of my TSP; my goal this year is not that ambitious - I'd like to beat the G fund (who is in the top 10 finishers of 2008).

 

[Gumby]

4. The Obama plan won't work - we just can't spend our way out of a recession.

They sure are going to try

 

[Silverbird]

Still haven't paid back a cent on the "emergency" off budget war spending

Doing nothing didn't work (ask Lehman brothers)

Lowering interest rates no longer works (when the fed moves everyone yawns)

Paulson plan supposedly helped the finance sector, but they can't show any proof :suspicious:

Federal Reserve Discount window lending is HUGE, makes anything out of Congress look like small fry

Opening up the discount window still hasn't opened up lending elsewhere

Auto bailout is a bandaid

And this ALL has already taken place, pre-Obama.
---------------------------------------------------------

Personally I prefer putting Glass Steagal and other regulations back in instead of more spending, the problem to me appears to be NO one can be confident in stock or loan bond ratings. Ditto for real estate loans, if someone wants to lend out money they should never have been able to sell the risk. We are now in the Barnum and Bailey school of finance, and I don't play finance on roulette wheels; the house always wins.

However, although you can't spend your way out of a recession, at least you can do something about the spiraling unemployment rate - which if it continues increases the danger of turning from Recess to depress.

 

[Birchtree]

Profitability resides in the ride ahead. But if you are not comfortable best to rest on the lily pad until the Dow reaches 9440 where it will be 25% higher than on Nov. 20th. In 1982 the Dow made a 25% gain in 40 trading days - I want every point.

 

[amoeba]

Honeymooners = suckers = losers:

Electing a president that can speak complete sentences is a start, but it isn't going to end the recession. Look at the news. Layoffs, plummeting housing prices, and what happens? Market bids itself up.

This is not real. Average earnings are declining by 1/3 minimum; retailers probably more. Oil is on the way back up. Why? constrained supply - in part because some oil isn't worth putting on the market at $40/bbl. and less demand.

So riddle me this? What is going to happen when the stimulus is spent out? Oh, that's right, we just did that a year ago. Yippee. $600 bucks. A new fly rod. Now what? Fact is - a 3 month stimulus equals a 3-month blip in the downtrend.

I haven't looked at the employment numbers; but my guess is a big increase this month, with a big revision (downwards), next month in whatever they disclose now. Look at Alcoa. Look at the automakers. Look at anyone. Toyota and Honda lost even more sales proportionally than the big 3.

Locally, another major California retailer, Gottschalk's, has about 3 wks of money left - and no parachute in sight. Another umpteen thousand jobs evaporate and dozens of empty mall anchor stores.

None of this is looking good. I realize that the market doesn't always face reality and these things can inflate farther, but this is not the bottom, and isn't the end of the decline.

I for one am sick of this "yes we can" crap; I'd like to ask "do what?"

 

[KevinD]

Anti-Birch.

 

[Gumby]

Honeymooners = suckers = losers:

Electing a president that can speak complete sentences is a start, but it isn't going to end the recession. Look at the news. Layoffs, plummeting housing prices, and what happens? Market bids itself up.

This is not real. Average earnings are declining by 1/3 minimum; retailers probably more. Oil is on the way back up. Why? constrained supply - in part because some oil isn't worth putting on the market at $40/bbl. and less demand.

So riddle me this? What is going to happen when the stimulus is spent out? Oh, that's right, we just did that a year ago. Yippee. $600 bucks. A new fly rod. Now what? Fact is - a 3 month stimulus equals a 3-month blip in the downtrend.

I haven't looked at the employment numbers; but my guess is a big increase this month, with a big revision (downwards), next month in whatever they disclose now. Look at Alcoa. Look at the automakers. Look at anyone. Toyota and Honda lost even more sales proportionally than the big 3.

Locally, another major California retailer, Gottschalk's, has about 3 wks of money left - and no parachute in sight. Another umpteen thousand jobs evaporate and dozens of empty mall anchor stores.

None of this is looking good. I realize that the market doesn't always face reality and these things can inflate farther, but this is not the bottom, and isn't the end of the decline.

I for one am sick of this "yes we can" crap; I'd like to ask "do what?"

amoeba,

Well said ! I am waiting to see what happens when the Obama honeymoon is over.....starting about Feb 1 or whenever this huge stimulus package gets pushed through congress and wall street sells the news. Bear market bounces occur for sometimes less than obvious reasons. How long this one bounces remains to be seen.:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

If you're waiting to see hard economic evidence of improvement the market will be up 50% before you get any positive hard evidence. That's how it works my friends. I don't believe long is wrong and as a result I'm holding my positions and tweaking my base. The biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of all the gloom and doom. The back of the bear has been broken with the VIX heading back to 16. I'm hoping we have the biggest short term percentage rally from the Nov. 21st bottom since 1932-1933. If you are satisfied to sit comfortably in the G fund your account will be punished like mine was on the way down. My asset base is intact and now comes the payback because I made the painful decision to buy into the pullback and I'm now being appropriately rewarded. I'm really anticipating a huge move to the upside like a panic rally.

 

[amoeba]

If you're waiting to see hard economic evidence of improvement the market will be up 50% before you get any positive hard evidence. That's how it works my friends. I don't believe long is wrong and as a result I'm holding my positions and tweaking my base. The biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of all the gloom and doom. The back of the bear has been broken with the VIX heading back to 16. I'm hoping we have the biggest short term percentage rally from the Nov. 21st bottom since 1932-1933. If you are satisfied to sit comfortably in the G fund your account will be punished like mine was on the way down. My asset base is intact and now comes the payback because I made the painful decision to buy into the pullback and I'm now being appropriately rewarded. I'm really anticipating a huge move to the upside like a panic rally.

Ummm. In the TSP, you have to be out to buy in. When were you ever out of the market? Looks to me like you rode it down from the top all in one of the equity funds, at least for the last year. So as far as I'm concerned, you need to top 1500 to make a dime.

As far as I'm concerned what happened on a particular November 21 or whatever is irrelevant; there's no sense looking at any trend line shorter than the 50 dma. In this regard, current share prices on spyders are roughly 6% higher than the 50 dma, and that's entirely within the last 5 trading days, and on half the normal volume. The 50 dma didn't even show an inflection till today.

It's not a rally....it's light volume fluctuation....I don't buy it, and don't intend to. Tomorrow is another day, which will include an employment report.

 

[Birchtree]

I bought every two weeks all the way down and now will continue to buy every two weeks all the way back up. I know I picked up over 1800 C fund shares last year and that will help me regain my footing - dollar cost averaging is the redeemer.

http://safehaven.com/article-12235.htm

 

[robo]

If you're waiting to see hard economic evidence of improvement the market will be up 50% before you get any positive hard evidence. That's how it works my friends. The back of the bear has been broken with the VIX heading back to 16. I'm really anticipating a huge move to the upside like a panic rally.

Birchtree,

The rally will come - that's for sure, but then another sell-off. It will be another tough year for buy and hold in my opinion in 2009. When the VIX gets back to 16 I will be looking to go short in all my brokerage accounts and my TSP money will be back in the G Fund....

Take care Big Bull!