amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

so I changed my mind; screw this +10% in two days following worst job report in 34 yrs; I don't care - this rally has no legs - no fundamentals, I know it, you know, and your momma knows it:

bailout schmailout, printing money ain't gonna work; you can't print your way out of a recession.

I predict the following to happen:

a) big 3 will have big job cuts, no matter who bails who out;

b) the february jobs report will be worse than this last one;

c) Obama's stimulus plan will fail; no way that the jobs lost - and unemployment gains, will be offset by some "infrastructure" program;

The jobs lost, and the people unemployed are not road or bridge builders. We don't need roads and bridges; we need fuel-efficient public transit, by rail, and the infrastructure for that (something I posted here back in October, when the gov was thinking about tossing money into a giant garbage can of bad paper). No matter what course he takes, there are no instant jobs, and these unemployed people do not fill those shoes; infrastructure takes planning, which takes time, and lots of it- anyone involved in it knows that. All sorts of reviews, and laws, that are not fast trackable (a good thing).

Guess Barack didn't take that elective at Harvard.

Accordingly, if the market opens up tomorrow - I will increase my allocation in F, that's right, bond fund.....and build from there. Bonds will rule in 09!!!!

 

[poolman]

so I changed my mind; screw this +10% in two days following worst job report in 34 yrs; I don't care - this rally has no legs - no fundamentals, I know it, you know, and your momma knows it:

bailout schmailout, printing money ain't gonna work; you can't print your way out of a recession.

I predict the following to happen:

a) big 3 will have big job cuts, no matter who bails who out;

b) the february jobs report will be worse than this last one;

c) Obama's stimulus plan will fail; no way that the jobs lost - and unemployment gains, will be offset by some "infrastructure" program;

The jobs lost, and the people unemployed are not road or bridge builders. We don't need roads and bridges; we need fuel-efficient public transit, by rail, and the infrastructure for that (something I posted here back in October, when the gov was thinking about tossing money into a giant garbage can of bad paper). No matter what course he takes, there are no instant jobs, and these unemployed people do not fill those shoes; infrastructure takes planning, which takes time, and lots of it- anyone involved in it knows that. All sorts of reviews, and laws, that are not fast trackable (a good thing).

Guess Barack didn't take that elective at Harvard.

Accordingly, if the market opens up tomorrow - I will increase my allocation in F, that's right, bond fund.....and build from there. Bonds will rule in 09!!!!

I hear ya Amoeba, Let's see: Is this 9/11 day's up now ? Somthing like that. Don't worry, It's not going to 14,000 anytime soon. You will catch a Good Train soon.

Just Relax, We have PPI and Retail Sales on Friday. Know one knows when that next 700 point down day will hit. It will... and I'll be in.

 

[amoeba]

I hear ya Amoeba, Let's see: Is this 9/11 day's up now ? Somthing like that. Don't worry, It's not going to 14,000 anytime soon. You will catch a Good Train soon.

Just Relax, We have PPI and Retail Sales on Friday. Know one knows when that next 700 point down day will hit. It will... and I'll be in.

yes, it was 9/11 up days; which followed a reverse set of 2/9 up days - which I know because you posted the charts on your message board I just finished reading!!!!

The other correlate that I have been following closely, is the winning price of Sage fly rods on EBAY, which have been declining by nearly 10% over the last month - 20% over the last 2 months; but always seem to be snatched $5 above my maximum bid. What the flip does that have to do with equities? Well - its an indication that a commodity is worth what people are willing to pay. It will vary around a median, you may buy a bargain (or not), but the trend (moving average), remains down. I will have my day there, as well.

Obama is just spewing forth crisis-management quick-fix rhetoric; still appears to be managed by cronies. Roads, bridges, railroads, any of that public works requires years of study, comment, environmental review, mitigation for various effects, plan and specking of 10,30 65, 90 and 100% plans, real estating, bid package, utilities, rights of way, bidding, awarding, permitting. Even if he had 1,000 projects on his desk and all the money in the world to spend, there's nothing he's gonna be able to do taking office in Feb 09 that will be spend money beyond the planning process, and could be built that calender year. Just doesn't work like that. It's not like declaring war on Iraq (did I just imply that going to war is easier than building a Federally-funded project? guess I did).

Sometimes, its better to keep your mouth shut and think about what people tell you - instead of repeating it. Especially a president-elect.

 

[amoeba]

Well - looks like the "rally" is over, darn it:

I had hoped it would jump on an auto bailout announcement and I could ITF into F-fund on a dip there, but that didn't happen.

I'll delay my entry point, into F, until such time that the bailout is confirmed by vote. That should bring some more suckers out of the closet; otherwise, my intent is to average into F before the holiday sales numbers hit the street - if FedEx's earnings are any indication, they will not be good.

If anyone reads my account thread and is in any of the equity funds; just a slight hint of caution:

sell sell sell
sell it all
sell it now
sell like there's no tomorrow
sell like you've never sold before

 

[CountryBoy]

yes, it was 9/11 up days; which followed a reverse set of 2/9 up days - which I know because you posted the charts on your message board I just finished reading!!!!

The other correlate that I have been following closely, is the winning price of Sage fly rods on EBAY, which have been declining by nearly 10% over the last month - 20% over the last 2 months; but always seem to be snatched $5 above my maximum bid. What the flip does that have to do with equities? Well - its an indication that a commodity is worth what people are willing to pay. It will vary around a median, you may buy a bargain (or not), but the trend (moving average), remains down. I will have my day there, as well.

Obama is just spewing forth crisis-management quick-fix rhetoric; still appears to be managed by cronies. Roads, bridges, railroads, any of that public works requires years of study, comment, environmental review, mitigation for various effects, plan and specking of 10,30 65, 90 and 100% plans, real estating, bid package, utilities, rights of way, bidding, awarding, permitting. Even if he had 1,000 projects on his desk and all the money in the world to spend, there's nothing he's gonna be able to do taking office in Feb 09 that will be spend money beyond the planning process, and could be built that calender year. Just doesn't work like that. It's not like declaring war on Iraq (did I just imply that going to war is easier than building a Federally-funded project? guess I did).

Sometimes, its better to keep your mouth shut and think about what people tell you - instead of repeating it. Especially a president-elect.

If BHO is smart there are projects out there, for example lock and dam projects that are already under construction, that completion dates have been pushed out 8 to 12 years due to funding restrictions. There are a few federal projects like that. We have 3 major L&D projects under construction just in our district alone. We also have a local state highway bypass project ready to go, just no funds, ROW has been purchased, all permits ready. Actually half of it was completed and the state ran out of funds, so I'm sure other states have some projects like this.

The problem I see is society is so much different now than in the 30's. We aren't a farming/manual labor society anymore. We're service/tech orient and I don't see any of these banker types at the end of a shovel. :laugh:

Plus we have a finite labor force with the expertise to work construction and will companies be willing to spend all that $$$ on heavy equipment for a short term ( 2 or 3 years) shot in the arm? If this is going to work it must be on the scale of our interstate highway program, decades. This will only work if it's long term or we'll just sink back into a recession, if we ever get out of it, because I don't think we have the brain power in Wash DC to put this together, Pelosi, Reid, BHO for example, what have they ever built or real job have they held?

CB

 

[amoeba]

Obama did work as a lawyer, married his boss. I dunno what sort of law. Not long after that, he was an alderman in Chicago, promoting urban renewal projects, giving contracts to his campaign contributers - like Rezko, who didn't produce, and he took a personal kickback or two. Nothing out of the ordinary for Chicago. Won the senate seat after the current senator, husband of borg woman seven (star trek next gen); got caught up in some group sex thing. Ran against a black republican, who often runs for president on minor ticket. Pretty much unopposed slam dunk.

Don't believe he has any DUI convictions like GW (who went to another state to get a second driver's license, which is also illegal) , but I can't swear by it. I believe Obama is (or was) a smoker, but he's either quit or is very discrete about it.

As far as pending Federal works, yes, there are some - - - and some large ones (billion+) - - - that are underway and awaiting additional funding. But you're absolutely right about the finite work force that does this sort of thing. Part of it is money, and part of it is getting the work done. The Billion dollar deepening of Oakland Harbor, for example, sure - it costs alot - and is unfinished, but that's the result of expensive equipment, dredge material disposal, testing, surveying. It takes alot of money, but not necessarily alot of people, and the people that do it, are specialists.

I recall not too long ago when there the demand for such specialty engineering, equipment, raw materials, and contracting firms got high. It didn't get the work done faster - in fact - the result were that bids came in high because the major firms could do better in China or North Vietnam, or even South America. So it didn't get done at all.

It's all smoke in mirrors; it isn't going to create a million jobs, now or ever.

 

[CountryBoy]

Obama did work as a lawyer, married his boss. I dunno what sort of law. Not long after that, he was an alderman in Chicago, promoting urban renewal projects, giving contracts to his campaign contributers - like Rezko, who didn't produce, and he took a personal kickback or two. Nothing out of the ordinary for Chicago. Won the senate seat after the current senator, husband of borg woman seven (star trek next gen); got caught up in some group sex thing. Ran against a black republican, who often runs for president on minor ticket. Pretty much unopposed slam dunk.

Don't believe he has any DUI convictions like GW (who went to another state to get a second driver's license, which is also illegal) , but I can't swear by it. I believe Obama is (or was) a smoker, but he's either quit or is very discrete about it.

As far as pending Federal works, yes, there are some - - - and some large ones (billion+) - - - that are underway and awaiting additional funding. But you're absolutely right about the finite work force that does this sort of thing. Part of it is money, and part of it is getting the work done. The Billion dollar deepening of Oakland Harbor, for example, sure - it costs alot - and is unfinished, but that's the result of expensive equipment, dredge material disposal, testing, surveying. It takes alot of money, but not necessarily alot of people, and the people that do it, are specialists.

I recall not too long ago when there the demand for such specialty engineering, equipment, raw materials, and contracting firms got high. It didn't get the work done faster - in fact - the result were that bids came in high because the major firms could do better in China or North Vietnam, or even South America. So it didn't get done at all.

It's all smoke in mirrors; it isn't going to create a million jobs, now or ever.

Also a lot of work needs to be done in the Great lakes infrastructure wise. The federal government has plenty of projects that can get this thing off the ground and then they can examine projects at the state level. But they still need someone with construction experience to select which jobs get us the biggest bang for our buck and the last itme I looked it sure wasn't our politicians.

And I didn't realize a lawyer was a productive member of society, isn't congress filled with lawyers who got use in this mess beginning in the late 1970's and never has run an effecient project or program.

CB

 

[amoeba]

Also a lot of work needs to be done in the Great lakes infrastructure wise. The federal government has plenty of projects that can get this thing off the ground and then they can examine projects at the state level. But they still need someone with construction experience to select which jobs get us the biggest bang for our buck and the last itme I looked it sure wasn't our politicians.

And I didn't realize a lawyer was a productive member of society, isn't congress filled with lawyers who got use in this mess beginning in the late 1970's and never has run an effecient project or program.

CB

Infrastructural needs are not new; the Federal Government's involvement in them is not new; there are laws and policies and procedures to deal with them; it is not for the President alone to decide, or even initiate. To some extent, there's a fixed pot of money, and increasing it will do some more, but not instantly, takes a few years once the money appears - and not the sort of things that create alot of jobs.

I could offer this up as my opinion, but its not; its cold hard fact of reality. That is the way things are. Anyone who says different is just plain wrong. If Obama thinks he's going to instantly transform the economic climate by throwing a bunch of money at infrastructural project, he's wrong too - - not a chance in hell, not a glint of possibility - - that there would be ANY EFFECT whatsoever; in the next 2 years. After that, maybe, some jobs - for some construction, and some consulting people - but nothing beyond that.

As for engineers having a say in selecting what gets done and/or funded, the govenment has those too (a whole Corps of Engineers, for example); but the decisions are political - and they will remain that way.

Don't get me wrong, throwing 700b at infrastructure could do some good things (or not, depending on what they are). But it won't be fast, it won't create alot of jobs, and won't change the current economic state. Better than buying bad bank paper, or bad stock, or whatever else our leaders have been p-ing away $$$ on.

 

[CountryBoy]

Infrastructural needs are not new; the Federal Government's involvement in them is not new; there are laws and policies and procedures to deal with them; it is not for the President alone to decide, or even initiate. To some extent, there's a fixed pot of money, and increasing it will do some more, but not instantly, takes a few years once the money appears - and not the sort of things that create alot of jobs.

I could offer this up as my opinion, but its not; its cold hard fact of reality. That is the way things are. Anyone who says different is just plain wrong. If Obama thinks he's going to instantly transform the economic climate by throwing a bunch of money at infrastructural project, he's wrong too - - not a chance in hell, not a glint of possibility - - that there would be ANY EFFECT whatsoever; in the next 2 years. After that, maybe, some jobs - for some construction, and some consulting people - but nothing beyond that.

As for engineers having a say in selecting what gets done and/or funded, the govenment has those too (a whole Corps of Engineers, for example); but the decisions are political - and they will remain that way.

Don't get me wrong, throwing 700b at infrastructure could do some good things (or not, depending on what they are). But it won't be fast, it won't create alot of jobs, and won't change the current economic state. Better than buying bad bank paper, or bad stock, or whatever else our leaders have been p-ing away $$$ on.

Yes, as a Corps employee I am very familiar with the political games played and laws and policies and procedures to deal with them. I’ve been at it for almost 24 years, but if BHO wants to hit the ground running he will look at these projects that have already received political blessing, but lack proper funding to finish them on time. Contractors have had to mob/demob several times due to funding the bridge to nowhere type projects. Thanks for the education on the Corps project approval process though.

I was just offering my opinion, based on my limited experience, as a broken down engineer that worked construction 7 years before going to the Corps, on how BHO can possibly fulfill his promises, if he is serious about doing it and the possible ways of doing it. I personally feel it’s just all political BS, we’ve heard from so many other pols and it will fall flat on it’s face. The feds never do anything efficiently, plus they'll all be wanting a piece of the pie.

As a Corps employee, I've seen this BS from more pols than I care to think about kill projects. Pols are the biggest project killers out their, except for the greenie weenies. Plus I don't think it'll work due to lack of manpower and equipment.

CB

 

[turbo23dog]

Some may call it politics, but the reality is that any of these types of projects that BHO gets going will do more to lift spirits and change perceptions. The positive psychological impacts are not to be overlooked...

The bad fundamentals in the economy are only a portion of the problem. The negative outlook many of us have also needs work.

 

[Show-me]

Maybe we can get these damn locks upgraded on the Mississippi and some sand on the top of the levee's.

 

[amoeba]

Some may call it politics, but the reality is that any of these types of projects that BHO gets going will do more to lift spirits and change perceptions. The positive psychological impacts are not to be overlooked...

The bad fundamentals in the economy are only a portion of the problem. The negative outlook many of us have also needs work.

hmmmm- - -not sure I can agree with you there on that one; since the S&P rallied 80 points since the worst jobs report I can remember, and a bunch of layoffs at majors since (Dow, FedEx). I'd say the outlook is far more rosy than the fundamentals show. Positive psycho impacts can cause the market to overly inflate, and then what happens when there's a reality check?

I personally don't like what I'm hearing out there, that people should get more credit, and thereby spend more. The gov should spend more. How about realizing this is a slow time, and we spend less, and save more. Too much credit, and easy credit, is the problem, not the solution.

 

[CountryBoy]

Maybe we can get these damn locks upgraded on the Mississippi and some sand on the top of the levee's.

Yeah we know who the main stumbling blocks are for those projects. At least the locks.

CB

 

[amoeba]

reacting to judgement day for the autos

looks like the head-fake is nearing an end, here are the factors I'm looking at:

1) And by that, I mean the inflection of the 20 dma; something we saw back in late July and sucked me in then; this time I watched.

2)The other thing I'm watching is the bond market - nice returns, and the 50 dma on VBMFX is now on the upside.

3) My instinct: So besides these technicals, I think there is going to be some serious cashing in today in the last half hour, and probably tomorrow.

4) The Auto effect: The cash position of GM, which was pretty close to nothing on Oct 1, is now just about nothing. Zero. Nada.

Whatever is going to happen, is going to happen tomorrow, monday at the latest. That could be:

a) a bailout - which is priced in, and will be sold into; probably flat

b) liquidation - 210,000 immediately out of work; no auto sales, no nothing; no idea what the flip the market would do....probably something on the order of 15% down, maybe more. That means 750 tomorrow.

The talk of a filibuster/vote battle is puzzling me; it sounds more serious than the objections over the $700B, but this is alot less coin.

c) something else.

My gut says to be ready to make a move, I will probably save some powder for next week, so I'm thinking now that F will perform best for the time being. The other option is buying into an oversold bounce, but is it really oversold, or is it true value?

Watch the tracker for any moves, I know I will be.

 

[amoeba]

sum-bch:

Watching asia gap down, figured the auto thing is a mess, and the foreign money will rotate into something else big beginning monday.

So I finally got my trade finger unlocked and decided to move 10% into F-fund, and now the tsp.gov site is down for maintenance, try again later.

 

[amoeba]

sum-bch:

Watching asia gap down, figured the auto thing is a mess, and the foreign money will rotate into something else big beginning monday.

So I finally got my trade finger unlocked and decided to move 10% into F-fund, and now the tsp.gov site is down for maintenance, try again later.

looks like the tsp.gov website is a busy one today!!!! made put 10% moolaa into F, and 5% into I; leave the rest in G for monday......

There's still some uncertainty on the auto industry....with talk early this morn about funds from Fed or TARP.....which was not what I was expecting.....so....now I'll take a look at the tracker....and see what y'all are doin.


Amoeba out

 

[amoeba]

Guess what? The S&P broke its 50 dma today; first time sense early september (the 50 dma was about 1270 or so back then). And the I-fund just strung 6 days of gains together. Hold, fold, or buy more, that is the question......and I'm having second thoughts about the auto bailout happening at all.....just have the gut feeling that I'm not being told the whole truth here. I may hold off to see the opening tomorrow; thinking about raising my stakes in both I and especially F.

 

[amoeba]

Guess what? The S&P broke its 50 dma today; first time sense early september (the 50 dma was about 1270 or so back then). And the I-fund just strung 6 days of gains together. Hold, fold, or buy more, that is the question......and I'm having second thoughts about the auto bailout happening at all.....just have the gut feeling that I'm not being told the whole truth here. I may hold off to see the opening tomorrow; thinking about raising my stakes in both I and especially F.

well, I think the buying has gotten a little overheated - and thinking there is some cashing in today; so I bailed on I-fund, and raised my stake in F; my thinking is there will be rotation into bonds - which has kicked in big time today.

If bond fund goes up another % by end of week; I will get the flip out of that too.

And hey, what is up with me dropping down to #17 on the tracker - wonder if they give prizes to people with the biggest monthly swing; noticed one of the participants who passed me, BigBully, is north of 20% in the last 3+ weeks. Interesting times. YeeHaw.:nuts:

 

[poolman]

well, I think the buying has gotten a little overheated - and thinking there is some cashing in today; so I bailed on I-fund, and raised my stake in F; my thinking is there will be rotation into bonds - which has kicked in big time today.

If bond fund goes up another % by end of week; I will get the flip out of that too.

And hey, what is up with me dropping down to #17 on the tracker - wonder if they give prizes to people with the biggest monthly swing; noticed one of the participants who passed me, BigBully, is north of 20% in the last 3+ weeks. Interesting times. YeeHaw.:nuts:

How about a Prize, Say $100.00 to the top 5 for the year.

What do you think Tom....

 

[HappyGoLucky]

Amoeba - looks like you made the right move into F. It's looking good and chugging along! I may have to join in! lol