alevin's account talk

[wv-girl]

Back to serious. We may shortly end up in the 9th level of H*ll (Dante's Inferno). Please please read Denningers commentary this morning and contact your congresspeople with a copy of it. Immediately. His prognosis scares the whoseewhatis out of me. Hope it does you too.

http://http://market-ticker.denninger.net/ Gotta go now, will be away from computer all day today out in the boonies w/CB counterparts. That way if something really bad happens, I won't have to watch it in realtime.

Thanks for this. This anwsers my question that I posted Tuesday in the Bailout thread.

 

[alevin]

I see other people on the MB were reading Denningers analyses today while I was out, and getting just as freaked as I was this am when I read the first one. I read a blog post a couple weeks ago somewhere by a person who lived through Argentina's debt default in 2001-1st world city Buenos Aires became a 3d world city overnight. Nearly verbatim how he described what happened.

Anyway. Just for purposes of in-the-moment comparison, here's some Argentine history of their experience going through the fire. It's relevant.

http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis#The_crisis

Argentina's economy during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Macroeconomically speaking, the critical period started with the decrease of real GDP in 1999 and ended in 2002 with the return to GDP growth, but the origins of the collapse of Argentina's economy, and their effects on the population, can be found before.

(Going back to 1983),

The state became unable to pay the interest of the national debt and confidence in the [currency] collapsed. In July, 1989, Argentina's inflation reached 200% that month alone, topping 5,000% for the year. unemployment did not substantially increase; but, real wages fell by almost half (to the lowest level in fifty years). Amid riots, President XX resigned five months before ending his term, and YY, who was already President-elect, took office....The fight against inflation did go well, and Argentina began to recover.

But Argentina had international debts to pay, and it needed to keep borrowing money.

Argentina's public debt grew enormously during the 1990s, and the country showed no true signs of being able to pay it.
By 1999, newly elected President faced a country where unemployment had risen to a critical point, In 1999 the country entered a recession (which was to last three years, ending in a collapse). Stability became stagnation (even deflation at times), and the economic measures taken did nothing to avert it; in fact, the government continued the contractive economic policies of its predecessor.

Argentina quickly lost the confidence of investors and the flight of money away from the country increased. In 2001 (2 years after the recession started), people fearing the worst began withdrawing large sums of money from their bank accounts, causing a run on the banks. The government then effectively froze all bank accounts for twelve months, allowing for only minor sums of cash to be withdrawn.

Many Argentines became enraged and took to the streets of important cities, especially Buenos Aires. These protests occurred especially during the period of 2001 to 2002 (1-2 years AFTER the recession started!). Soon they included property destruction, often directed at banks, foreign privatized companies, and especially big American and European companies. Many businesses installed metal barriers because windows and glass facades were being broken, and even fires being ignited at their doors. Confrontations between the police and citizens became a common sight, and fires were also set on Buenos Aires avenues.


The President declared a state of emergency (illegally since it needed confirmation by the Congress) but this only worsened the situation, precipitating the violent protests of 20 and 21 December 2001 in Plaza de Mayo, where demonstrators clashed with the police, ended with several dead, and precipitated the fall of the government. The President resigned and escaped in a helicopter.

In 2002 [with replacement President],
After a few months, the exchange rate was left to float more or less freely. The peso suffered a huge depreciation, which in turn prompted inflation. Argentina depended heavily on imports, and had no means to replace them locally at the time.


The economic situation became steadily worse with regards to inflation and unemployment during 2002 (3 years after the recession started!).

They went to cash economy but didn't have enough cash in circulation to meet everyone's needs so huge quantities of complementary currency kept circulating alongside pesos (gold? silver?). acceptability ultimately depended on the State's willingness to take them as payment of taxes and other charges, consequently becoming very irregular.

Most barter networks, collapsed (who knew barter systems could fail?) as large numbers of people turned to them, desperate to save as many pesos as they could for exchange for hard currency.


Newly homeless and jobless Argentines found work as cardboard collectors.

2003 estimate-30,000 to 40,000 people scavenged the streets for cardboard to eke out a living by selling it to recycling plants.

The Recovery
On May 25, 2003 President Néstor Kirchner took charge (4 years after the recession started). Kirchner kept Duhalde's Minister of Economy, Roberto Lavagna, in his post. Lavagna, a respected economist with centrist views, showed a considerable aptitude at managing the crisis, with the help of heterodox measures.[for detail, read the article]

Evolution of the Argentine GNP, 1999–2004


When the default was declared in 2002, foreign investment fled the country, and capital flow towards Argentina ceased almost completely. The Argentine government met severe challenges trying to refinance the debt. The state had no spare money at the time, and the central bank's foreign currency reserves were almost depleted.

There's much more in the article about workers solutions, as well as govt coping skills.

Moral of the story-4 recession years can seem like an eternity while we're living through them, regardless of who the President is.

 

[alevin]

Hello hello hello! Back after a short absence. What an exciting day folks had the other day while I was out in the brush away from computer for several days. Absolutely gorgeous fall weather for being out in the brush. Any bear hunters out there? I know where one is hanging out, big time. Expected to run into it all day the other day, couldn't walk 10 steps without running into bear scat. Not as scared of the real thing as I have been of this market and economy tho, but wondered what I'd do if me and my field partner had run into it since weren't carrying weapons other than a measuring pole/walking stick. Go BOO and wave my arms and talk loud and look for a big branch I guess, and go the other way as quick as possible. Speaking of going the other way....

Since I am still skeptical we've hit THE bottom, I'm actually not terribly sorry I missed the big up-again.

Catching up from my absence, I found commentary from Kevin DePew (Minyanville) that I missed the first time around on the 16th, he updated yesterday re weekly indicators of the Approaching "meaningful LOW", as he puts it. http://www.minyanville.com/articles/crb-spx-commodities-Japan-consumers-technicals/index/a/19772/p/1

His indicators are consistent with mine (ADX) but a hair earlier that we may have hit a temporary low this past week, but that we're not there yet for the real one. The weekly and daily ADX higher than 40 combined with ADX and DM- are still higher than the DM+, tells me still very unsafe to jump in yet. Thought I'd share DePew's weekly temporary "low" indicator since it's a new one for me.

View attachment 4996

His temporary "low" signal he calls the "perfected weekly TD buy Setup" which by my count (see the 1 and 9 marked on the chart above), we met as of this past week. Basically it shows up when we have 9 down weeks in a row, where each week's low is lower than 4 weeks earlier, AND the low of either the 8th or 9th week, is lower than both the 6th and 7th weeks' lows. Per historical similar periods in 74 and 87, that can set up a shortterm 1-4 week reaction (up).

But the REAL DEAL comes after the set up, with what he then calls the "Buyin Countdown (13 count)". Starting next week, I will be counting each week that closes lower than the weekly low 2 weeks prior. When I hit 13 of those situations, I'll be willing to wade back in at least up to my waist while I see what happens next. Based on 74 and 87 patterns, the weekly ADX will still be high and dropping at that point, but will see a genuine crossover up of the rising DM+ and dropping DM- which is something I've been waiting for on the daily charts already. I'll show weekly chart from 74 next post. In the meantime, watch out for bears!

 

[justbizness45]

Thanks Alevin!!

 

[alevin]

Thanks Alevin!!

De nada, JB.[
Done some more chart work on this new concept this pm. Decided the 13-count til buyin is not perfect-whatever is? but it gets you in close to THE bottom. sometimes 15-week MA will get you closer, sometimes DM- crossing below DM+ will get you closer. Judgement call, but from what I can see the 9-count setup is pretty solid. Looked at 73-74, 87-88, 90-91, 2000-2003. Here's some of the various nuances regarding the ADX vs. 13-count as earlier but "safe" buy-in signal.


View attachment 4997

View attachment 4998

BTW, I looked at EMW/VXF from this 9/13 viewpoint earlier today. We're only at 6 of 9 on the setup signal there. And with respect to IEE, we have already met the setup 9 count and nearly at 13 on the buyin signal. Hmm.

 

[alevin]

View attachment 4999

I mentioned my time this week visiting a bear (close enough for govt work anyway) , this is where he lives. I love visiting :cheesy:.

 

[Silverbird]

*tweet tweet* *Chirp Chirp* Now that's beautiful.

 

[alevin]

Wow! I'm staggering a little. Does anyone out there in TSPland know of a better source than SNOPES for checking out validity of information put forward as "facts"? I've just had a close family member say BS to snopes as a credible fact-checker. Note: over the past year, this family member has gotten mouthier and more opinionated than Ive ever known him to be, about politics in particular-retired fed, maybe he's finally getting over his personal/fedwork rule about never talking about politics, after being retired for about 20 years .

Then again, his brain may be rewiring itself without him realizing the change. :suspicious: Not sure where the truth of the matter lies. So. Back to my question up above.....anybody?

 

[budnipper1]

Googling "urban legends myths" yields over 400,000 choices. Take your pick, but I cannot rate either one of them better than the others. I usually try snopes and if I'm not satisified with what I read there, I get a "2nd opinion".

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&q=urban+legends+myths&btnG=Search
​

 

[KevinD]

I've never used it but I hear http://www.factcheck.org/ is good.

 

[alevin]

Thanks Bud! Thanks Kevin! You guys are great! I figure if my family member isn't willing to consider snopes reliable I'll just offer him the same info from another site and see if he is developing a "mind made up, don't confuse me w/the facts" mindset or is just anti-snopes at this point. :blink:

 

[Steadygain]

In the story I'm writing in the Lounge - I'd mentioned that places without a trace of mankind are often the most sacred places to me and where I sense God's Presense the deepest.

I come here once in awhile just to find the peace

THANK YOU !!

 

[alevin]

I found this beautiful photo on a specialty newpaper site a little bit ago.
http://http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_b5hcKABPlGI/SRmUqtU-4FI/AAAAAAAAQ2M/5bM_AaOrxhc/s1600-h/05-05c.jpg

View attachment 5057


and this history to go with the photo...
http://http://www.classbrain.com/artholiday/publish/article_156.shtml

Veterans' Day and Armistice Day
November 11
By Sarah Lane
Nov 11, 2004, 06:00 PST


The War to Begin all Wars

It’s hard to imagine that World War I involved 35 countries. It lasted five years, from 1914 to 1918. The United States only fought from 1917 to 1918. A year was more than enough time, however, to claim too many lives, and people held tight to the notion that this was the very last war. When the fighting stopped, leaders of several countries signed an Armistice on the 11th hour, of the 11th day, of the 11th month. An Armistice is an agreement to stop all fighting, in other words a truce. This truce was signed on November 11th, 1918 at 11 A.M.

This is important to know because Veterans' Day was originally called Armistice Day. This day was set aside to reflect and remember the sacrifices men and women made during World War I in order to ensure peace. The first official celebration was on November 11th, 1919. Veterans who survived the war marched in parades and were hometown heroes. A Veteran is any soldier who has fought in a war. Ceremonies were held and speeches were made. World War I was called ‘the war to end all wars’ because everyone hoped there would never be another one.

After World War II, Armistice Day was still celebrated on November 11th. Around the year 1953, people began calling it Veterans' Day. This was in thanks and remembrance to the Veterans in their towns. Many people believed that peace was preserved not only by World War I, but World War II, and the Korean War as well. Congress decided to change the day to an occasion to honor those who’d served America in all wars. In 1954, President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed a bill proclaiming November 11th each year as Veterans' Day.

Every year on November 11th we give thanks for peace, observe a moment of silence at 11 A.M., and remember those who fought and died during times of war.

My grandmother was 12 years old when the Armistice was signed. So much history she has witnessed at 101 years of age.

 

[alevin]

Wheeeee!!! I finally sucked up my nerve and sent in my application today to set up my first brokerage account ever! :nuts: Options Xpress. I already like their customer service for noobs like me.

Cash account only, no margin for me, I'm way too new at anything other than TSP and mutual fund IRA biz. :embarrest: Decided to make it a straight investment/trading account this round, not ROTH, hoping it will help me save up funds for an optional big trip I'm wanting to take a couple years from now.

It's just too "good" of a market not to open the account now and be willing to take a few risks with non-retirement $. I'll likely start with maybe 2 positions, once the account is set up, don't have that much in the account yet to go high wide and handsome with my first plunges.

I'll work on putting aside funds for Roth next, and may open a second brokerage account for that. I've already got a good start on savings for the new roof a couple years from now (not optional). I can git 'er done on funding the Roth if I watch my spending the next few months, then finish piling up the rest of the cash for the roof after that, and then pile some more greenbacks (if they're still greenbacks by then :blink, in the "optional achievement" account.

 

[justbizness45]

Wheeeee!!! I finally sucked up my nerve and sent in my application today to set up my first brokerage account ever! :nuts: Options Xpress. I already like their customer service for noobs like me.

Congrats!!, I've been contemplating a similar move. I am currently contributing the max to TSP plus my catchup contributions. I have been thinking about dropping my TSP back some and putting it into a brokerage account.

 

[XL-entLady]

Wheeeee!!! I finally sucked up my nerve and sent in my application today to set up my first brokerage account ever! :nuts:

Good for you! I think your financial self-control is just awesome, and reading your next plans just confirms my opinion! {high five}

Lady

 

[alevin]

Been away from the market the past 3 days. Lots been happening while I was out, eh? I'm still working off ADX and 9/13 counts discussed previously. We met the 9/13 count signal for I last week finally, but as I also showed, the 13-count is not perfect, and sometimes 15Week MA works better, sometimes the ADX works better, so far neither of those indicators are anywhere close to buypoint so I'm going to wait for some I.

I'll post some charts tomorrow pm to give updates on ADX and the 9/13 counts for SPX and EMW. We haven't gotten anywhere's close to buy point with those signals yet. I'm really glad I picked lag indicators to work with, its just a question of finding ones that keep me fairly safe with regard to CP, but that also help me move back in on swing/trend change or not too long thereafter. The 9/13 count signal is based on weekly close, so lag by a week at least. The ADX signal is also a weekly one. My conservative CP risk-averse approach to TSP. I do believe there is plenty of time to build up my teeny little brokerage account I just started and still do some bottom feeding. Don't want to eat up the teeny account with bunches of trade fees. Still doing my research for time being.

 

[alevin]

Back again, ready for something, not sure what...more turkey? Hope everyone had a great TG. I did. It's sooo amazing what's out there on the wide wide web to trip over just wandering around. Stumbled across a really cool chart tonight, thought I'd share.

http://www.rubbernet.com.sg/monk's_chart.htm

There are other great current-data charts at rubbernet, I plan to stop back there to visit on a regular basis now that I've found them.

The Monk's Chart
This chart, which was prepared many years ago by a Monk, shows when good and bad times have occurred and when they will occur again. Some outstanding dates were 1870 - the Franco-Prussian War - dear bread and scarcity of money in 1870, the Baring Crisis 1888-1890, 40 failures on the London Stock Exchange in 1888 to 1890, the American crisis of 1893, the South African War, 1899-1903, the Russo-Japanese War of 1904. 1915 speaks for itself, and so do 1931 and 1942. Recent recessions in the U.S. occurred in 1973-75, 1981-82 and 1990-91. The year 1999 was the peak of the high-tech boom and is shown at the top of the chart with the dismal down-turn indicated to last for 6 years to 2005.
This chart is a useful form of guidance for business transactions. Certainly, there is a case for giving it consideration. But in all transactions in commodities and securities there are individual factors which have to be taken into consideration. Sometimes those individual factors may go against the general trend.
Legend:

Years in which panics have occurred and will occur again: Their cycles are 16, 18 and 20 years.

Years of good times, high prices and the time to sell stocks and values of all kinds: Their cycles are 8, 9 and 10 years

Years of hard times, low prices, and a good time to buy stocks and goods and hold until the boom reaches the years of good times: Their cycles are 7, 11 and 9 years.

Tom, I hope posting the interpretive commentary with the chart doesn't go beyond fair use. Sounds like this chart has been around a long time in various editions, I hunted to see if could find reference to it on some other site but couldn't, so maybe only exists in hardcopy media elsewhere.

 

[alevin]

Rats. I must have a cheaper battery in the PU than I used to have. It's not even zero outside (10 degrees f), and the battery is so low it won't start the engine. All the years I've lived in subzero climates (at least a few days a year), I've always been able to get vehicle started without overnight battery warmers-until now. Going to be late for work today, recharging battery and then recharging the battery charger. First time using the battery recharger-plugs into cigarette lighter. will see if it really works-supposed to wait 1/2 hour and then run the engine another 1/2 hour to recharge the charger before turning engine off or unplugging the charger.

Ah well, gives me more time to contemplate life and market behavior today. Still researching individual dividend stocks-so many aspects to consider before plunking $ down. Never done this before so no hasty ill-considered knee-jerk impulse buys for me. TSP is inviting, signals not quite where I want them to be just yet, but close.

 

[XL-entLady]

Rats. I must have a cheaper battery in the PU than I used to have. It's not even zero outside (10 degrees f), and the battery is so low it won't start the engine. All the years I've lived in subzero climates (at least a few days a year), I've always been able to get vehicle started without overnight battery warmers-until now. Going to be late for work today, recharging battery and then recharging the battery charger. First time using the battery recharger-plugs into cigarette lighter. will see if it really works-supposed to wait 1/2 hour and then run the engine another 1/2 hour to recharge the charger before turning engine off or unplugging the charger.
.....TSP is inviting, signals not quite where I want them to be just yet, but close.

Hi, Alevin, sorry to hear about your battery problems. Hope you can keep your hands warm enough in all the futzing around to fix it!

Lady