alevin's account talk

[alevin]

I'd never heard of Kress cycles before today. :embarrest: No need for red face, I never heard of Kress myself til last week or so. I was only familiar with Kondratieff's name. Now that I know the cycles are based on Fibonacci, I'd better dig into them more. Careful, cycles not based on Fibs, just the opposite, Fibs are subelements of cycles-from what I just read in one of the articles above.

And you, like Squale, are one of the tenured professors of the site! Aw shucks. :embarrest: I'm on such a steep learning curve myself, as Birch says, the teacher learns more than the students, e.g. having to talk about what I'm learning helps make it clearer in my own mind.

One small question to pick your brain again if I may. I've been doing a bit of research on RSI(2) and RSI(3), which appear to give good direction but have some whipsaws. I was struggling with the 1-2 day ups/2-3 day down sideways movement back in the fall, got so frustrated with the mini-shifts almost but not being predictable that I just backed off of trying to nibble. The article below uses the 2-day RSI [RSI(2)] as an entry signal when 1) the stock or ETF is above its 200-day moving average, AND 2) the RSI(2) signal drops below 2 on the scale-applies to stocks only; 3) the RSI(2) signal drops below 30 on the scale-applies to ETFs only.
apparently you can reasonably count on a short-term up move from there if those conditions are met. Link to that article is here. http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/081210/18536.html?.v=1

I'm still grasping all the nuances, have to keep going back and re-reading the article, I've gotten a good grip on the concept of RSI(2) and concept of indicator dropping below 30, but keep forgetting the part about being above 200-day MA first, and keep forgetting the part about stock signal vs. ETF signal, so until I get those things straighter in my head I shouldn't be trying to use the RSI(2) for any big moves.

I know Stockcharts.com uses RSI(14) as its default, but that appears to be a bit slow in combination with my other preferred indicators. It appears that you are using RSI(10). Any special reason you picked that one?

Sorry I'm not being clear on that one, not using RSI(10) for anything. I'm experimenting with RSI(2) signal dropping to 10 or below on the scale for short-term moves (experimenting with my 5% of 5% new contributions). Kind of got it muddled up with the monthly RSI(14) indicator currently being below 30, even tho the monthly signals not rising yet which they should be doing before a serious move back into the market per that other article which Birch was all over already. Learning as I go, baby steps, fall down and laugh a little, try to stand up again. When you don't put a lot into the experiment it doesn't hurt a whole lot when it doesn't work-learning. Babies are a lot closer to the ground,when they fall down it doesn't hurt that much, just a little ego-bruise. :toung:
Lady

Alevin

 

[alevin]

alevin,

below is a link that may be helpful in obtaining a Gov't job as a Vet.

http://www.fedsmith.com/article/1810/

Have a safe and Happy New Year,

CB

Thank you CB! I used to read fedsmith regularly, until I got disgusted about their articles in support of FRTIB and the accompanying uneducated comments from so many feds re TSP frequent trading. Nonetheless they do have many excellent articles on other topics that I've found useful in the past. This is one of the best. I'll pass on to my brother, not a diesel jock tho, he's a diesel mechanic-second career. He was in during Gulf I but ship was in drydock the entire time, his ship returned from the Med the week before Khadafi shelled our ships, so many near misses in his 23 years, it's a miracle he never saw live action. :worried:

He doesn't know yet that he could be looking for a fed job, this article is likely to motivate him to look and check out the local possibilities. He will be limiting his search to the local area which is a state capitol decent population size, he moved there last year for (grand)parental proximity reasons and just bought a house big enough for growing family this fall.

 

[CountryBoy]

Thank you CB! I used to read fedsmith regularly, until I got disgusted about their articles in support of FRTIB and the accompanying uneducated comments from so many feds re TSP frequent trading. Nonetheless they do have many excellent articles on other topics that I've found useful in the past. This is one of the best. I'll pass on to my brother, not a diesel jock tho, he's a diesel mechanic-second career. He was in during Gulf I but ship was in drydock the entire time, his ship returned from the Med the week before Khadafi shelled our ships, so many near misses in his 23 years, it's a miracle he never saw live action. :worried:

He doesn't know yet that he could be looking for a fed job, this article is likely to motivate him to look and check out the local possibilities. He will be limiting his search to the local area which is a state capitol decent population size, he moved there last year for (grand)parental proximity reasons and just bought a house big enough for growing family this fall.

Your welcome alevin,

I know what you mean about them being shills for the FRTIB, especially Ralph Smith, who definately is a mouthpiece for the TSP board.

CB

 

[justbizness45]

Thank you CB! I used to read fedsmith regularly, until I got disgusted about their articles in support of FRTIB and the accompanying uneducated comments from so many feds re TSP frequent trading. Nonetheless they do have many excellent articles on other topics that I've found useful in the past. This is one of the best. I'll pass on to my brother, not a diesel jock tho, he's a diesel mechanic-second career. He was in during Gulf I but ship was in drydock the entire time, his ship returned from the Med the week before Khadafi shelled our ships, so many near misses in his 23 years, it's a miracle he never saw live action. :worried:

He doesn't know yet that he could be looking for a fed job, this article is likely to motivate him to look and check out the local possibilities. He will be limiting his search to the local area which is a state capitol decent population size, he moved there last year for (grand)parental proximity reasons and just bought a house big enough for growing family this fall.

Is your brother also here in the PNW? If so where is he thinking of applying? Sounds like he may have skills for PSNS & IMF in Bremerton.

 

[alevin]

I wish he were in Bremerton. He tried to get moved up there longterm when he was in San Diego, but other than short term stints with ship, it didn't happen. If he were there now, I'd probably see more of 2 first cousins and families than I do now. But no, he's in a Rocky Mtn. state to be closer to our parents. AF base tho. What series are you thinking? Maybe the AF could use those same series? He was in weapons-control guidance systems electronics as well as now a qual'd experienced diesel mechanic.

 

[justbizness45]

I wish he were in Bremerton. He tried to get moved up there longterm when he was in San Diego, but other than short term stints with ship, it didn't happen. If he were there now, I'd probably see more of 2 first cousins and families than I do now. But no, he's in a Rocky Mtn. state to be closer to our parents. AF base tho. What series are you thinking? Maybe the AF could use those same series? He was in weapons-control guidance systems electronics as well as now a qual'd experienced diesel mechanic.

If he was applying in the shipyard which is Department of the Navy, I would recommend DON0856 job announcement which is a GS-0856 series electronics technician or DON2604 job announcement which is a WG-2604 series electronics mechanic. I don't know if the other services use the same series numbers or not. Have him check https://chart.donhr.navy.mil/
They list jobs all over the country and there may be some openings in his state.

 

[alevin]

Thanks JB. Series codes are universal since they come from OPM, apply across agencies. Not all agencies hire in same series tho, even if agencies look similar on the surface. They may hire in somewhat similar series, but not necessarily the same exact series due to slightly different agency missions. He looked into a private sector aviation mechanic job recently but he's not qual'd. The company's looking for ex-AF, since those guys are already qual'd and experienced. I'll have him look into the 2 series you mentioned.

 

[Steadygain]

I'd never heard of Kress cycles before today. I agree with you that it isn't economic voodoo. I'm a firm believer that the # doesn't just keep cropping up by accident.
Lady

I've refused to believe that any 'Wave Theory' or 'Cycle Theory' could predict and largely define the Markets (and Economic Conditions) with substantial and sustained accuracy.

Charts and Historic Volume (+/-) are no guarantee either. So I've typically gone with 'my perceived trends'.

This is honestly the first real evidence of something that is almost impossible to dismiss. The Kress Cycles seem to resemble Fractal Geometry which is something I'm very grounded in.

If my research pans out - and I can see things the way Kress did when he came up with this theory I might be able to predict with even better accuracy. The huge advantage to his theory is that you have cycles within cycles - a symmetry and balance - most of the others lack. So far his accuracy is starteling (if not utterly shocking).

It would be the biggest change of my life - to believe the underlying fundamentals and various factors are in reality influenced by predictable cycles - but at this point I am very open to discovering that possibility.

Alevin, I hope things work out for your brother and all the more hope they work out for Sis.

There are way too many Waves and Cycles for me to take the time to discover in detail; but this one is Challenging and Entertaining and may be exactly what I need to teach my children. Hopefully I'll have more to give in the years to come.

Have a blessed and happy New Year - my wonderful friends - and know you are very much appreciated.

Steady

 

[alevin]

Hmm. did I mention the weather we've been having? 2 weeks of 4x4 driving, followed by ice dams, roof leaks and roof snow shovelling. Flooding is now here and rising. One way in and out of my neighborhood to get to town or anywhere else Hmm. lower end of neighborhood impassible at 100 year flood stage for sure (happened a couple years before I moved here). I live outside the 100-year zone, but may become trapped either in home or away from home if this keeps up. Flooding supposed to drop by tomorrow, but more rain to come on Sunday. Guess I'll find out what flood stage creates inability to enter/leave neighborhood by watching NOAA website today and monitoring conditions at the far end of the street. Haven't decided if I'm going to try to get to work today, might not be able to get back home. My neighbor the disabled vet has no transportation. If things get really rough, we may have to head for the hillside on foot, couple houses over from here. Supposed to drop below freezing again by 5 tonight at least. Hope my daggone flood insurance payment has made it to its destination, it was due on Tuesday but with mail slowdowns from weather, who knows? Does this mean the market's bound to get better this year? Foul weather precedes market upturn by 6-9 months?

 

[XL-entLady]

Allie, please stay safe, know that we're thinking about you, and please give us an update as you get a chance to let us know how you are doing.

Take care,
Lady

 

[alevin]

Thanks Lady, will stay safe as I can, just not sure just yet what the better move is, I can stay home, stocked up on supplies and bills paid (or at least in the mail), and help watch out for neighbor, or go to work as planned and end up in motel on the hill for awhile, I lost my remaining kitty earlier this past month due to worsening health problems, so don't have to be concerned about pet care at least. I won't be driving into or across flooded areas, thats for sure. Seen videos of active culvert wipeouts, 100-year flood events as they occurred, and dealt workwise with damage from 100-year flooding in one of my agency's management areas years ago.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks Lady, will stay safe as I can, just not sure just yet what the better move is, I can stay home, stocked up on supplies and bills paid (or at least in the mail), and help watch out for neighbor, or go to work as planned and end up in motel on the hill for awhile.

Hmm...it's a tough call. If going to work means you'll be in a motel then that will add up pretty fast. If you've got TIME SAVED UP it would be good to use that and explain your circumstances to whoever you report to. That way you'll know what's happening to your home and will be on hand for the neighbor. If you lose power to your home, or are forced out, something will open up to you. If you don't have any TIME - I could donate a week.

We'll hope for the best - but don't hessitate to ask for help if you need it.

 

[alevin]

If you don't have any TIME - I could donate a week.

We'll hope for the best - but don't hessitate to ask for help if you need it.

Thank you Steady, so much for the offer, doubt I'd ever take you up on it. Like most of the rest of us civilians, I've got 240 reset, that's what it's there for. If I do end up in a motel, I'll just have to replenish my emergency reserve funds and not get to use them for investing in the market later on down the road-at which point I'll whine a lot!!!!!:nuts:. But hey, as Bullitt has learned, that's why its wise to have the emergency stash first and worry about market investments after that.

 

[Steadygain]

Thank you Steady, so much for the offer, doubt I'd ever take you up on it. Like most of the rest of us civilians, I've got 240 reset, that's what it's there for. If I do end up in a motel, I'll just have to replenish my emergency reserve funds and not get to use them for investing in the market later on down the road-at which point I'll whine a lot!!!!!:nuts:. But hey, as Bullitt has learned, that's why its wise to have the emergency stash first and worry about market investments after that.

THANK YOU !!! That really puts my heart at ease.

These are the most important lessons to learn from:
1) ALWAYS Keep the 240 Hour Reserve and Maintain it
2) ALWAYS have a CASH RESERVE - because you never know when you'll need it.
3) Pride is a good thing to have (as in this case because she is prepared - BUT IT IS A BAD THING if it keeps a person from accepting the genuine gifts of mercy and grace others are inspired to give.

This morning was light but now the flood is starting so may not have a chance to get back until this afternoon - or next week.

 

[turbo23dog]

What is meant by "240 reset?"

 

[Steadygain]

1) ALWAYS Keep the 240 Hour Reserve and Maintain it

What is meant by "240 reset?"

Federal Employees are allowed to carry 240 hours of Annual Leave over to the next year and maintain that amount forever.

Most will have to use anything over 240 Hours - year after year. A 'Use it - or Lose it' policy.

 

[turbo23dog]

Thanks...

 

[alevin]

Hi all, even tho it was raining torrentially when I first got up this morning, it finally switched to big wet snow for half hour to an hour that amounted to maybe 1/4 to 1/2 inch new snow before it stopped, about the time I decided to go down the street to look at river levels at the bridge and decide if I wanted to risk going to work Decided it was worth the risk, water very high but not totally scary, blue sky showing in places, and updated 5-day forecast no longer calls for additional serious rain coming in that timespan. So I'm at work, river as high as I've seen it the past 10 years, but maybe it won't go much higher in the next 24-48 hours. Think I'll likely get home tonight.

 

[Birchtree]

CASH RESERVE - I'm sure glad I had mine resting in the banks knowing full well there was always the potential of a blind side and sure enough - hit me hard. But I was prepared to buy the bottom and I did - soaking up over $500K in 432 individual stock positions - now we'll see if I was correct in my judgements. The biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of all the gloom and doom. There is no more forced selling to experience. We now need another 9 to 1 upday to confirm the greatest bullish significance. This may happen in the next few weeks - if it does we may have a new leg of the bull market. Snort.

 

[alevin]

Yippee skippee! Started the new year with a teeny tiny gain on my 5% of 5% biweekly contribution that went into CSI on tuesday in my real account. I'm so proud of my little bambino. And no, I don't want to give it back, thank you very much!

I went into my account today to see how many shares my 2%/1%/2% (how I split the 5% of 5%) I actually bought. The 3+ shares of S didn't even register as being more than zero%, even going out 2 decimal places! :cheesy:. I'm a heck of a risk-taker, aren't I? It may take me several more pp before I can start playing with the < 1% method, at this rate.