Afisheggs Account Talk

[Guest2]

I'm really looking for a point to jump off this train before it wrecks. I've been pounding my head into my computer desk since my ill decided decision last Fri. Why did you guys let me do that? :cheesy: I'm at a decision point right now and am very antsy, I don't know what this market wants to do, I believe if we move into 11k Dow things could get ugly fast based on the " psychological" effect. I'm gonna wait more day then I'm gonna call it quits, too much gloom out there, if things move up it'll be on big news only and I don't think that's gonna happen soon.

Invest without emotion ! Not always easy, but important enough to make it a goal. Your portfolio will thank you as well.

 

[Afishegg]

Giant storm cloud in the west turns out to be locusts. People are starting to line up at the bank, and if congress asks me to work for free that'll be it for me.

In all seriousness, the one major problem I see with this crash is that the government has already used up its ammo during the crash of 08'! Coupled with the fact that the European union is falling hard, I believe this could very well be the beginning of something very sinister.

It looks like they are now saying that Italy will default and that Spain just might barely miss default, the world economy just cannot support this kind of major economic turmoil before something big snaps and sends it all reeling into a complete disaster. People here in the office are getting fidgity although they are quiet, this is clearly at the forefront of everyone's mind, whether your a bigtime investor or not.

 

[Birchtree]

Just stick your finger in the dike - is that politically correct?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Originally Posted by Afishegg
I'm really looking for a point to jump off this train before it wrecks. I've been pounding my head into my computer desk since my ill decided decision last Fri. Why did you guys let me do that? :cheesy: I'm at a decision point right now and am very antsy, I don't know what this market wants to do, I believe if we move into 11k Dow things could get ugly fast based on the " psychological" effect. I'm gonna wait more day then I'm gonna call it quits, too much gloom out there, if things move up it'll be on big news only and I don't think that's gonna happen soon.

Excedrin is good for that headache, at least that's what the TV commercial says. Like everyone is saying, when you are ready to get out, that is the time to get in. At least that is what I keep telling myself.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Despite the fact that we've moved down into the red, I believe tmmrw will be a big day up. I believe this is a simple set up opportunity to take a quick 2% gain for the month. I'm not gonna get greedy with all the negative sentiment out there. Quick in and quick out before fridays job #'s come out, I think they will suck and coupled with today's manufacturing report well see stocks drift lower, that there's my 2cents worth. Peace -fish-

This is exactly what I was thinking when I got in Tuesday night. Boy, were we wrong!

 

[Afishegg]

This is exactly what I was thinking when I got in Tuesday night. Boy, were we wrong!

Yeah, but on a positive note, we sure are gonna get those S fund shares on a good price point next Tue. :nuts:

 

[jkenjohnson]

Just stick your finger in the dike - is that politically correct?

Dyke would be politically incorrect.

 

[Afishegg]

My prediction for tomorrow is this.

Job numbers are worse than expected and the market receives the final nail in the coffin!

 

[burrocrat]

Dyke would be politically incorrect.

But not necessarily wrong, so long as there was consent.

 

[Afishegg]

I see the Nikkei just opened and is down 5% already. I am half expecting to hear from bernanke or geitner tomorrow to try and settle the markets, or not. I still think were in for a nasty surprise in the job numbers. Maybe standard and poors could go ahead and thrown in a credit downgrade just for fun!

 

[Afishegg]

Well I just made perhaps a huge boneheaded move or a stellar move. S fund 100%. Market is down over 4% in 2 days, so hope the heads of euro states will talk some sense into pampondrou and tell him to get his head screwed on tight and come out with a statement of confidence. After a good run last week and my 8th place for overall gains in Oct I'm looking to just top off my gains with another 2% this month then I'm out. Good luck everyone!

 

[Afishegg]

This is not a game for the faint of heart, it takes nerves of steel and gumption to play in this market. The vix spiked 15% today showing many just don't have the stomach for this type of rollercoaster market. However those that have the nerve stand to reap the rewards ..or take the plunge. That's what it takes though to make real money, a gamblers heart and a keen sense of how to calculate the risk. Roll the dice and don't flinch!

 

[Afishegg]

Looks like my intuition is turning out to be right on about euro leaders telling pampondrou to get his a** in line (see 3rd post down) here is the article from bloomberg today.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/20...alks-to-push-greece-on-bailout-aid?category=/

Anyway, looks like those who waded back into the murk yesterday might be vindicated today. I am now looking foreward for a bailout opportunity, I believe in the longer (1-2 month) term things are going to stay bearish and I plan on playing this market cautiously because of that. I am not a technicals guy, I don't stare at charts all day and base my Ift's on points on a line, but it seems to be working pretty good for me. I have stated before you don't have to be an expert to manage your tsp well. Guts,gumption and being very well informed and up to date (and I mean by the hour) as well as having cat like perception and womanlike intuition Coupled with a gamblers heart will make you a Sharp investor.(of course just like those who stare at graphs all say, this method doesn't always work). At least thats my way of looking at it! .....Roll the dice and don't flinch! :toung:

 

[Afishegg]

I'm getting ready for real purchasing power, my oceanic will like the smooth sailing ahead, having bypassed the storm clouds of the previous 2 day sessions the wallflower power I have amassed will send me into margin byoptic bulls**t territory and spit me out into the great Bermuda triangle of Financial Bliss...Yeah BABY!!!!! Dow 13k HERE WE COME!!!!

 

[Afishegg]

Ok..so I got a little carried away with that last post, Sue me:cheesy:....anyway. I'm looking into my crystal ball and although It's cloudy I can still get glimpses of the future...what do I see?you ask? I see big hairy red eyed boogie men walking around looking to devour someone's TSP account.

1.)The fed comes out and basically says "things are bad, gonna stay bad but HEY..WE'RE not gonna do anything about it! 2.) Greece IS gonna hold a referendum (idiots) polls show that a majority are against the proposals set by European ESFS fund. 3.) China (you know the ones who actually have all the cash and are expected to give it to the Your a peeuhns) are acting finniky about it, saying things like " uhh, its too early to invest in this fund" and my favorite one " don't rely on China to bail out Europe"!!! 4.) ITALY! In short...ITALY is NEXT! They are holding "emergency meetings" ahead of the G20 meeting tmrrw to "bolster" confidence in their ability to handle the "situation" there ( this from a man who was having sex parties with 15 yr old girls!)......yes these are the ones in charge of world kingdoms.....I digress.

Conclusion: Run for the hills. The situation is deteriorating around the world and the noose is tightening. I see a spring trap that has been set and will spring shut soon. Too many what if's still in Europe and we all know what kind of reaction a bad news day out there will cause, factor in chinas cold feet and Americas inability to actually spend ..er I mean borrow It's way out of problems (I mean with a 14 trillion $ deficit and all, not to mention their inability to do anything about it through "super" committees) and you have gotchyorself a perfect storm brewin.

Gains to be had in the near term but major losses loom on the horizon. Choose your entrance and exit points wisely and remember, when you roll the dice ..don't flinch!

 

[Birchtree]

Amoeba is that really you? Don't listen to what the Fed says, but rather watch what they do - it's safer that way. I've never trusted them in the past and there's no reason to change now.

 

[Afishegg]

Amoeba is that really you? Don't listen to what the Fed says, but rather watch what they do - it's safer that way. I've never trusted them in the past and there's no reason to change now.

Birch you've also never pulled out of the market on impending financial collapse news as well, and have caught hell for it. One thing is to be a stubborn old man set in his ways another is to be totally blind to impending financial doom and just shrug your shoulders. I mean your sitting at # 531 on the autotracker with -6.30% returns YTD, I mean you have'nt moved your money since MAY for gods sake! I love your commentary like the next guy but your lack of participation and/or willingness coupled with your perpetual optimistic Outlook gives people who want to make money in their TSP very confusing signals and potentially leads them to financial LOSS! Birch I'm sorry to say this, but as much as I like you, you sound like a senile old man who should just hang it up.......:embarrest:

 

[Birchtree]

Someday you'll realize that old age provides power of the pocket full of dollars - more available dollars provides the flexibility needed to make money. The only thing we have to fear is no fear. Be careful of that myopic loss aversion. I know exactly what I'm doing and better yet how to do it.

 

[burrocrat]

New shooter, comin out, C and E, yo 'leven.

 

[burrocrat]

Birch you've also never pulled out of the market on impending financial collapse news as well, and have caught hell for it. One thing is to be a stubborn old man set in his ways another is to be totally blind to impending financial doom and just shrug your shoulders. I mean your sitting at # 531 on the autotracker with -6.30% returns YTD, I mean you have'nt moved your money since MAY for gods sake! I love your commentary like the next guy but your lack of participation and/or willingness coupled with your perpetual optimistic Outlook gives people who want to make money in their TSP very confusing signals and potentially leads them to financial LOSS! Birch I'm sorry to say this, but as much as I like you, you sound like a senile old man who should just hang it up.......:embarrest:

That's a mighty fine interpretation there, I just figured he had big balls.