Afisheggs Account Talk

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Afishegg

Afishegg

Member
Hey folks.
Afishegg here, I've been with the guvment 10 years and have been activly in control of my TSP for quiet some time. Although I'm new here I really enjoy this site so far, so be gentle :cheesy:. My strategy!? Pure strategic emotional logic< HA!> I read the analysis Tom gives everyday,keep up with the usual channels,bloomberg,ft.com etc etc, some economists as well mainly Peter schiff, nouriel roubini and the like minded. I'm not an expert by any means but I don't think anyone has to be necessarilly. I'm doing pretty good with my account ( around %6) but with this site hope I can improve that. I'm young so I don't worry too much, being 33 I can weather alot, HEY...All I need is enough for my doublewide on the lake here in east Texas, so I can spend my days in retirement sitting on the dock drinkin beer! Thats my whole lifes story! HAHAHAHA :laugh: -Afishegg-

I found this article, maybe I should get back in %100 S fund today or monday. Whaddya guys think?

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aJMm2jV28Zz8&pos=13
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

I don't think I'd put 100% on the S fund - think about diversification. The S fund may have seen better days from the last ten years - it's time for large cap to shine.
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

Gonna be looking for some positive results next week based on some of the positive news coming out. I'll be jumping back into the S fund monday %100 go big or go home right? This article from Fox business.


"Investors will be looking to see if this week’s stock market rally can be sustained via strong company earnings reports as the second quarter reporting season kicks off.
Dow Jones Industrial staple Alcoa Inc. (AA: 10.94, 0.23, 2.15%) opens the earnings season on Monday.
Little to no signs of inflation are expected when the U.S. government issues its June producer price and [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]consumer [COLOR=blue !important]price [COLOR=blue !important]indexes[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR] Thursday and next Friday, respectively.
Meanwhile, the financial reform bill could go to the whole Senate for a vote next week as Congress returns from its recess.
Second-quarter results are likely to show companies continue to mend their bottom lines while struggling with cautious consumers, tougher comparisons and unfavorable currency fluctuations."
[/COLOR]
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

Looks like we can expect at least another week of positive gains, after that it's anybody's guess. I think there is still alot of negativity waiting around the corner, I'll give it another week then I'll be watching closely.
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

Ummmm, am I the only one worried about Alcoa's report Monday? Aluminum has gone down since their 1st quarter report? :notrust: :worried:
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

Plus, it's usually not a good sign when a company's stock price is up going into earnings........................I've seen "sell the news" way too often.....
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

Intrepid_Investor said:
Plus, it's usually not a good sign when a company's stock price is up going into earnings........................I've seen "sell the news" way too often.....
Click to expand...


+1 Only 3 things happen when a company reports earnings.

Good Earnings: Catch the pop, then poop the stock.
Neutral Earnings: No pop, neuter the stock.
Bad Earnings: Stock goes down on you and it ain't the good kind of going down....
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

Thanx guys, I appreciate every bit of insight. We'll se what happens monday, then the "I told you so's" can begin. But from what I'm reading the positives will continue for another week. But Hey who knows. I DO apreciate the insight though. As i've stated before, I'm here to "better" my %6 returns.
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

JTH said:
+1 Only 3 things happen when a company reports earnings.

Good Earnings: Catch the pop, then poop the stock.
Neutral Earnings: No pop, neuter the stock.
Bad Earnings: Stock goes down on you and it ain't the good kind of going down....
Click to expand...


LOL! You should copyright that........................;)
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

Afishegg said:
Thanx guys, I appreciate every bit of insight. We'll se what happens monday, then the "I told you so's" can begin. But from what I'm reading the positives will continue for another week. But Hey who knows. I DO apreciate the insight though. As i've stated before, I'm here to "better" my %6 returns.
Click to expand...

Fishegg, i'm not saying the market won't continue up, I hope it does since I'm still long on the market, I'm just saying Alcoa's report skeers me come Monday..............just saying..............;)
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

Double A
http://www.mysmartrend.com/news-bri...sensus-estimates-q2-eps-remain-positive-share

7/9/2010- Citigroup analysts are maintaining their buy rating on Alcoa (NYSE:AA), with a $16 price target, ahead of their second-quarter earnings report.
Analyst Brian Yu said, "We expect the company to post 2Q EPS of $0.10 (previously $0.09) vs the consensus of $0.12. However more recent estimate revisions suggest expectations are closer to $0.10-0.11."
Yu added, "We remain positive on AA shares based on 1) a discounted valuation of 9.5x on our mid-cycle earnings estimate of $1.13/sh and 2) our outlook for gradually improving aluminum demand and prices. We estimate that 22% of China's smelters are operating below cash cost and this should lead to production cutbacks over the next several quarters, particularly those impacted by the government's plan to increase power rates. Curtailments should support a price recovery back above $1/lb."
The bank sees fiscal 2010 EPS of $0.46, vs. consensus estimates of $0.56 per share, and fiscal 2011 EPS of $0.95, vs. consensus estimates of $1.04 per share.

This Week’s Can’t Miss Earnings (AA, CSX, INTC, YUM, JPM, GOOG, AMD, BAC, C, GE, BRK-A)

http://247wallst.com/2010/07/10/thi...-aa-csx-intc-yum-jpm-goog-amd-bac-c-ge-brk-a/
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

Well ....spain won the world cup! I wonder if that will make the markets go up tommorow. Hehe, I doubt it!:toung:
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

Well I decided to hold back after reading some of the market analysis, some indications we might not be getting the bump we were hoping for this week. -Bloomberg article, monday, says-

“It’s a relatively subdued marketplace today,” said Andrew Ross, partner and global equity trader for First New York Securities LLC. “It’s marked by some pronounced weakness in the commodity space, which is leading the major indices downward. The group is underperforming in anticipation of Alcoa’s earnings tonight, which seemingly always disappoint, and a modest bounce in the dollar, which is leading the underlying commodities lower.”

"Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, slipped 1 percent. The company missed analysts’ average estimate for per-share earnings from continuing operations in six of the previous 11 quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

So in short I think the expected boom might be slowly turning into a bust. BUT, I'm no profesional,I understand there is more positive news due out this week, but I'm afraid that if the mood turns sour the momentum might just be too great to overcome. I seem to remember hearing someone on here saying that alcoas earnings report might be lackluster, well then the next step might be that the "supposed" positive news due out might also be lackluster, now that won't be good.
Let me know what you guys think. I'm gonna hold off one more day.:confused:
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

What do you guys think? Will we be getting any lows to chase up in the next month? I am looking around and all I see is rocks, I am thinking I should pull this ship out into safer water. It looks like choppy seas ahead, no rolling waves to speak of.
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

What do you guys think? Will we be getting any lows to chase up in the next month? I am looking around and all I see is rocks, I am thinking I should pull this ship out into safer water. It looks like choppy seas ahead, no rolling waves to speak of.

View attachment 9746
 
Re: Afisheggs account.

Thanks, I like to add a little spice to my posts. Check out my photo album. Hoping to get to surf some waves these next two months with my tsp, but I'm looking around and all I see are choppy waters besides... play around too much in this environment and you could very well end up... sunk.....
View attachment 9748
 
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