350Z's I fund thread OCT 07

[Robo5555]

Big day tomorow! Lets see if the fat lady sings!!

 

[Robo5555]

japan starded on the down side.

 

[Frixxxx]

japan starded on the down side.

Yep,,,japan down....australia up.....I see mixed signals for FTSE

 

[350zCommTech]

japan starded on the down side.

No worries. Wait until the BOJ announces the "hold" on interest rates.

 

[Frixxxx]

japan starded on the down side.

Just went green!!!!

 

[weatherweenie]

Not that it means anything, given the Fed announcement later today, but the current Bloomberg quote is:

+0.387%

 

[James48843]

Currently showing up 4 cents.

 

[350zCommTech]

ADP suggests a job number of 130K. 3Q GDP came in at 3.9%? WTF?

We're screwed! I'm getting out. I'll take my one day hit. Thank you!

 

[Robo5555]

ADP suggests a job number of 130K. 3Q GDP came in at 3.9%? WTF?

We're screwed! I'm getting out. I'll take my one day hit. Thank you!

You guys think we are going to take a hit today? Even with a .25 cut?

 

[James48843]

There may not be a rate cut- that is what 350z is pointing out.

The numbers don't indicate a sagging economy in need of a rate cut.

Here is something else that is in the yahoo story:

" As the economy picked up a bit of speed, so did inflation.

An inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve showed "core" prices -- excluding food and energy -- rose at a rate of 1.8 precent in the third quarter. Although that was up from a 1.4 percent pace in the second quarter, it was still within the Fed's "comfort zone."

The Fed HATES to drop rates when inflation is going higher. This is some ammo for them NOT to drop the rate by a quarter point.

I don't know if the news is enough to make the fed hold rates as is, but it MAY be. And if it does, 350z is saying that the markets are not going to like that.

We'll have to see how it plays out.

The good news: Well, I guess the good news is I saved a lot on my car insurance from USAA.......

 

[Show-me]

IMO, NO CUT. CNBC Rick Santelli is reporting how does the Fed cut rates with back to back strong ED and higher inflation. B52 Ben and the jets are groaning over this one. How do you cut the rate without looking like a market whore. Tomorrow is the PCE inflation data and what do you want to bet inflation ticked up.

 

[Robo5555]

Me too!!! on the USAA bit.

Lets suppose they cut the .25%. Would you guys still get out for Thursday?
I mean even if the fund goes up today the lilipad looks good for Thu/Fri.

 

[James48843]

Would you guys still get out for Thursday?

We won't know if there is a rate cut in time to make a decision for thursday.

Any decision today to stay in or bail out will have to be made before we know what Uncle Ben and the gang do.

What this info does is pretty much ensure that there will not be a half-point cut, if anyone was expecting that, unless Ben and the gang know something they are not telling us.

We are here, now, and have to decide what to do before noon today.

Hard day for decisions. Lots of mixed signals out there.

 

[Robo5555]

I know opinions are mixed on this but I think that the Fed will cut. No only due to the preassure from the market (.25 cut factored in) but we also have to consider the housing and subprime issues.
Regardless of the Fed's decision, I feel bullish about this quarter. Any opinions?

 

[ChemEng]

10:11 estimate: +10 cents from market change PLUS +1 cent from dollar change EQUALS +11 cents.

 

[350zCommTech]

Me too!!! on the USAA bit.

Lets suppose they cut the .25%. Would you guys still get out for Thursday?
I mean even if the fund goes up today the lilipad looks good for Thu/Fri.

I know opinions are mixed on this but I think that the Fed will cut. No only due to the preassure from the market (.25 cut factored in) but we also have to consider the housing and subprime issues.
Regardless of the Fed's decision, I feel bullish about this quarter. Any opinions?

The Chicago PMI came in worst than expected, below 50. The GDP number is backwards looking, so I hope they will pay more attenion to the PMI. In the past, consecutive manufacturing numbers below 50 resulted in Fed cuts.

Either way, I'm getting out today. If they cut just a .25, whether the market goes up or not today, it will probably go down tomorrow.

If they hold, the sell-off will probably continue for the rest of the week.

If they surprise again with a .50 cut, the markets will shoot up today, but the odds of them taking profit tomorrow is high. As Griffin said, we are already near the top of the channel.

I'm going G fund for tomorrow.

GL.

 

[12%ayear]

Watch for the Fed to cut because of the pressure. IMO we will see triple digit gains today. Sub-prime crisis knocked the wind out of lenders and real estate. The FED knows that they have to pump up the economy first and deal with inflation later to avoid a recession. Also, holiday sales are key to the FED. The better the receipts come in, the less pressure for the FED to cut later. I see a .25% as a token and another .25% cut later before they become hawkish. Looking for 14000s. BTW, I closed my account based on obtaining a new postion at work, which did not pan out(happy about that) and it would have to do with working the overnight shift. No way I could function during the day. I refused the postion and stayed on days. Sorry if I left without an explanation. It had nothing to do with anyone or anything in here. I am back FWIW. If Tom can up my thread page that would be nice. Once again, sorry and thanks for the emails.

 

[James48843]

If they cut just a .25, whether the market goes up or not today, it will probably go down tomorrow.

If they hold, the sell-off will probably continue for the rest of the week.

If they surprise again with a .50 cut, the markets will shoot up today, but the odds of them taking profit tomorrow is high. As Griffin said, we are already near the top of the channel.

I'm going G fund for tomorrow.

GL.

Makes a lot of sense- a valid data point for me to consider.

I'm not sure what I am going to do yet, but what he says makes sense to me.

 

[12%ayear]

Watch for the Fed to cut because of the pressure. IMO we will see triple digit gains today. Sub-prime crisis knocked the wind out of lenders and real estate. The FED knows that they have to pump up the economy first and deal with inflation later to avoid a recession. Also, holiday sales are key to the FED. The better the receipts come in, the less pressure for the FED to cut later. I see a .25% as a token and another .25% cut later before they become hawkish. Looking for 14000s. BTW, I closed my account based on obtaining a new postion at work, which did not pan out(happy about that) and it would have to do with working the overnight shift. No way I could function during the day. I refused the postion and stayed on days. Sorry if I left without an explanation. It had nothing to do with anyone or anything in here. I am back FWIW. If Tom can up my thread page that would be nice. Once again, sorry and thanks for the emails.

Watch small-caps ...they are the biggest laggard.

 

[HAILSTORM]

Welcome Back, 12%!

If you anticipate a triple digit gain this afternoon, that would mean a big positive unfair value for those of us already in the "I"...which also means that we start Thursday with an equally huge negative balance...do you think the OSMs can bridge that gap, especially when profit-taking would be in order tomorrow?

I'm thinking like 350z that we just to safe haven and take the +FV...