350Z's I fund thread OCT 07

[Robo5555]

What would 12% do? .... hmmmm ...... my guess is he'd let it ride!!!!!!

Agreed!

 

[chandler51]

It’s a tough situation for the Fed. Rates need to be cut to stimulate the economy, but rate cuts tend to weaken the dollar and drive the price of oil higher. Fine line.

I moved over to the G for today, but can't decide between the I or F for tomorrow.

Yep, I miss the views of 12%.

 

[NyteTracker]

350z,
Here's a quick view chart: gold, oil, dollar, yen, 10-year.
As expected, the headlines are active this a.m.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=^XAU,^NYE,DX-Y.NYB,USDJPY=X,^TNX&d=v1

 

[SCHAGAN]

NOOOOOOO I am NOT his wife..or anything!

Disregard previous comment. I am looking for reliable data from reliable sources.

 

[Cortez]

What is the reasoning behind the strategy that I would be superior to S for WED and THURS?

 

[James48843]

I think "no cut" is more likely.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[fedgolfer]

Ben likes to surprise (unscheduled discount rate, and the surprise 50 pt FFR cut). The indices have been pricing in a 25 pt cut FFR (we'd be challenging the double top if everyone really thought a 50 was coming), a 50 would surprise the market to the upside. I'm sure he'll tinker with the discount rate too to help the commericial and investment banks. GS is trading on a 5day rising wedge that broke out of a longer term double top, do they know something? It looks like the wedge could be broken to the downside on the release of FOMC (profit taking/sell the news)... but the bullish arguement is that it busted out of its double top... and that breakout could be a leading indicator and the indices could follow. Obviously that doesn't help us with our TSP IFT deadline.. but it will help us out in our more nimble accounts.

So my guess is we sell the news on a 25 cut... we rally on the 50 and an additional discount rate cut.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

 

[James48843]

I'm showing "I" down nine cents right now.

 

[350zCommTech]

Work here got busy on the wrong day....I can't look at anything.

 

[fedgolfer]

Work here got busy on the wrong day....I can't look at anything.

From ChemEng's spreadsheet:

Index % Change: -0.44% $(0.11)
DX % Change: -0.08% $0.02

Total % Change: -0.356% $(0.09)

I Fund Close Price: $25.93

 

[fedgolfer]

If the jobs data comes in bad on Friday, the Fed will look really stupid if they don't cut. I think that could really shake the markets to the downside... the Fed would look like they really aren't forward looking in data.

 

[350zCommTech]

If the jobs data comes in bad on Friday, the Fed will look really stupid if they don't cut. I think that could really shake the markets to the downside... the Fed would look like they really aren't forward looking in data.

They already have the number. Their action will tell you what the number will be.

 

[fedgolfer]

Fedgolfer where can we find the spreadsheet?

In the Technical Analysis Tool thread:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3840&page=2

I think someone was saying the makeup in the MSCI EAFE had changed though.

 

[350zCommTech]

Both gold and oil down doesn't give me confidence about a cut. Although the CC numbers were horrible.

 

[fedgolfer]

Both gold and oil down doesn't give me confidence about a cut.

Maybe they're shaking off the weakhands today? Although OIH did have a spinning top doji, followed by, of course, deep red today. I'm holding BHP (kinda like a gold hedge with some Chindia and copper upside) and SLB... so, I ain't too happy but I ain't sellin' either.

 

[Minnow]

It got quiet in here... spooky quiet ....

I'm guessing we finish somewhere around flat today (pause before tomorrow's news), thoughts?

OT= 12% missing... attending FOMC meeting possibly (explains his clairvoyancy lately, right?) better guess -- sox win series = partying his @$$ off!!!!!

 

[nnuut]

Msci (-.36%)

 

[350zCommTech]

Msci (-.36%)

Down 9 cents.

 

[McDuck]

Msci (-.36%)

Unfair Valuation (UV) Tally

4 days with fudging the numbers
10/15/07 I-fund -0.39% MSCI -0.41%
10/16/07 I-fund -1.36% MSCI -1.33%
10/17/07 I-fund 0.39% MSCI 0.39%
10/18/07 I-fund 0.35% MSCI 0.34%


4 days straight with new UVs with correction of the 5th
10/19/07 I-fund -1.76% MSCI -0.90% <= UV -0.86%
10/22/07 I-fund -0.52% MSCI -1.96% <= UV 1.44% New UV of + 0.58%
10/23/07 I-fund 1.60% MSCI 1.41% <= UV 0.19% Total UV 0.77%=0.58%+0.19%
10/24/07 I-fund -0.31% MSCI -0.44% <= UV 0.13% Total UV 0.90%
10/25/07 I-fund 0.12% MSCI 1.03% <= UVC -0.91%

New UV with correction on the next day
10/26/07 I-fund 2.09% MSCI 1.45% <= UV 0.64%
10/29/07 I-fund 0.54% MSCI 1.15% <= UVC -0.61%

No fudge today
10/30/07 I-fund -0.35% MSCI -0.36%

 

[budnipper1]

View attachment 2392

Glad we got the "edit" post feature.
Sorry for the bad numbers before.